Why can't real estate be saved this time?
Why did the tried and tested routine of saving the property market in the past fail?
The two bailouts in 08 and 15 ended with the national housing price skyrocketing, and this bailout, starting from September 2021, has continued to escalate, and so far, it has almost been good.
The purchase restrictions in the first-tier cities have been fully relaxed, but the effect of this bailout is completely different from the previous two timesNot only did it not be saved, but the more it was saved, the faster it fell.
According to the statistics of Zhuge Data Research Center,This year, the local relaxation policy has been introduced 773 times
Compared with last year, it has increased by more than 160 times, covering more than 340 cities, and the number of introductions in September has reached the peak since last year, and more than 140 times in a single month.
The shackles on the property market have almost been lifted, purchase restrictions and sales restrictions have all been released, down payments have been reduced, and interest rates have been reduced.
However, the data is still ugly1 In November, the sales area and sales of commercial housing nationwide fell by 8% and 5% year-on-year respectively2% ，
This year's real estate sales scale is about 11 trillion, you must know that in 2021, it will reach 18 trillion, and the scale has fallen by nearly 7 trillion in two years, many people do not have a specific concept of 7 trillion, so let's put it this way, the total scale of the entire catering industry in 2023 will be about 5 trillion, which directly fell one and a half of the catering industry, Evergrande thunderstorm caused such a big turmoil, and the debt was 2 trillion, which fell directly by 35 Evergrande.
So this fully shows that there are a large number of people who are unwilling to buy a house in the past two yearsFrom January to November, the growth rate of real estate development investment fell by 9 percent year-on-year4%，
This data has fallen for 19 consecutive months, and the decline has continued to expand, which shows that social funds are not optimistic about real estate and dare not throw money into real estate.
And this is still in the context of the continuous introduction of bailout policies, and the data is still so ugly.
The reason behind it is ostensibly because people are reluctant to buy a house, or the supply and demand relationship is imbalanced due to the excessive amount of the property market.
And the root cause is because of the problem of residents' leverage ratio
Residents are simply unable to increase their leverage and are reluctant to take out loans.
As long as residents don't dare to borrow money to buy a house, the housing price will be at the top.
In 2008, the resident debt ratio was 17%.
In 2015, the resident debt ratio was 31%.
However, in 2023, this figure is 64%.
So the reason why '08 and '15 were able to be saved,One is that in the past, the individual's leverage space was still sufficient
The second reason is that in the past, individuals had confidence in future income growth.
The existence of these two factors is the key to the effectiveness of the rescue policy after the "fall" of the property market in the past few times.
And then both of these factors are challenged, so no matter how much the bailout policy gives, as long as the house price is not reduced, the buyers will not buy it.
In fact, strictly speaking, the leverage ratio of 64% is not high compared to those developed countries.
But the problem is that although our economy has been developing at a high speed in the past, many social security systems have not kept up.
As a result, residents will have great worries about increasing leverage.
Many families can afford the monthly payment of a simple house, but the problem is that this family is still burdened with a series of burdens such as marriage, raising children, education, medical care, and pension.
So now you either increase the income of residents,
You either lower the house price,
You either bring the social security system up, which can relieve the stress of the moment.
However, if you look at these three directions, which one is easy to achieve, and none of them is easy to achieve.
Therefore, in the face of different policies to save the property market, many people are saying that they want to and want
That's the truth.
Unless you force him to retreat, he will discuss with you, just like reducing the interest rate of the stock of housing, if the bank does not reduce it, the residents will repay the loan in advance every day, and your loss will be greater.
And the same is true for house prices, where the scale of sales has been declining year after year.
Many developers and local governments are under great financial pressure.
So you can see that there are already some key cities that allow developers to reduce prices and get their money back.
Just observe, this round of property market is impossible to stabilize before the economy recovers, and even if the economy recovers, real estate will not return to the past era.
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