Recently, a 35-year-old Yanjiao owner reported his experience of cutting off his supply on the Internet, which sparked a wide discussion on the whole network.
This owner, in 2017, bought a new house in Yanjiao, Beijing for 4.26 million, including a bank loan of 2.98 million, and the monthly repayment was 16,800 yuan. In addition, it faced follow-up prosecution and compulsory enforcement by the bank, and the economic loss before and after was at least 2 million yuan.
In fact, the owner's situation is not an isolated case, many netizens have left messages under the post of the unfortunate owner, and also shared their similar experiences, what about the buyers who once bought in a high position, the house cannot be sold now, let alone the price, and they cannot afford the mortgage, and finally went to the road of cutting off the supply.
In addition to a summons from the court, they may also face stains on their personal credit records, and may even become old friends.
According to the housing auction data of Ali judicial auction platform, in 2017, there were only more than 9,000 legal auction houses in the country, and in 2019, the cumulative number of legal auction houses soared to more than 500,000 units, so by the end of 2021, the cumulative number of legal auction houses has reached 1.71 million units. In particular, the number of new foreclosure houses in the whole of last year was 50 times that of 2017, and this number continues to grow.
Objectively speaking, the increase in the number of foreclosure houses is not necessarily caused by the interruption of the supply of off-plan properties by all owners, and loan disputes, civil compensation, and offline auctions to online auctions will all cause an increase in this kind of public foreclosure data.
Therefore, some people will say that this data is suspected of exaggerating the facts and deliberately creating anxiety, even if the number of foreclosure houses in 2021 exceeds 1.7 million, then it is insignificant in front of the total number of more than 300 million houses in the country.
In addition, some experts based on foreign experience and down payment ratio, said that generally only more than 30% of the house price will cause this kind of supply interruption, and even if China's housing prices are **, the amplitude will not be too large, and this range of ** will not cause a large supply interruption at all, let alone the supply of the tide. In our daily life, we may indeed feel that the cases of relatives and friends around us who have lost their houses seem to be only a small range of individual incidents, but there are the following three points that need our attention.
First, the development of any thing should not only look at the result, but also look at the trend of the process. At present, the number of foreclosure houses published on the Internet does account for only a small part of the total number of houses, but in just four years, the cumulative number of units has increased from more than 9,000 to 1.71 million.
Secondly, the data of the foreclosure house has an obvious lag, generally, we all know that the owners are scraping together after the loan repayment is exhausted, and try their best to ensure that the mortgage is repaid on time, because the interruption of the mortgage not only means that they lose the house, but also become a dishonest person, which will have a certain impact on the future life of the owner, including the owner's children.
Only some owners will come to the foreclosure after the loan is indeed unable to repay and is overdue for six months, and at this time, a considerable period of time has passed since the financial crisis of the owner, so the 2021 supply interruption and foreclosure data are likely to be revealed in 2020, and the foreclosure data in 2022 may be even more difficult to be optimistic in the current changing international economic environment.
Finally, to refute what the so-called experts said: only 30% of the house price is likely to trigger the idea of a wave of labor interruptions, which is obviously caused by the reversal of the cause and effect of the accident, as said before, housing prices will not lead to a wave of supply interruptions, because it will not only bring about a personal economic impact, only when the income of residents declines or even unemployment, and the cash flow in their hands is exhausted, it will be forced to trigger this supply interruption, and then cause a large-scale housing price **.
Almost all major cities in our country have adopted a more stringent policy of restricting sales and purchases, although to a large extent it has hit the momentum of housing speculation, but to a certain extent, the housing ** can not truly reflect the supply and demand of the market, often, there is no market, you can't sell what you want to sell, and you can't come in if you want to buy.
In this case, in fact, on the surface, housing prices remain stable, but it does not mean that the owners behind these houses are safe to repay, on the contrary, non-market-oriented operations and distorted ** will further increase the repayment burden and disposal costs of the owners.
Take the owner of Yanjiao at the beginning of this article as an example, he was sued by the bank after the purchase was broken, and the lawyer's fees he had to bear were as high as 140,000 yuan, and the reason was that the total price of the house was overvalued, which undoubtedly made the property owner in financial difficulties worse.
What information can we get from these embarrassing realities?
As we all know, since 1998, when our country's housing was fully marketized, China's real estate has grown by leaps and bounds in the past 20 years, creating a jaw-dropping real estate boomFrom 500 million square meters** to 1.8 billion square meters, an increase of 12 times.
The average price of urban houses has increased by 10 yuan from 1,948 yuan per square meter to 9,860 yuan per square meter5 times, and the total real estate sales in our country have risen from more than 200 billion yuan to 14 trillion yuan, a full 70 times. It can be said that in the past 20 years, the real estate is also the epitome of our great strides in urbanization, a new city rises from the ground, a new district comes into being, urbanization and real estate prosperity, not only let our living conditions greatly improved, so that our per capita housing area has doubled in 20 years, at the same time, the prosperity of real estate has also enriched the local finance, the locality, in the case of a financial surplus, there is spare power to improve the construction of local infrastructure, built today's railway and highway transportation system extending in all directions, Revitalize the upstream and downstream industrial chains of infrastructure, realize industrial upgrading, and create many jobs.
Similarly, if there is no large-scale real estate and infrastructure, it is difficult for new technology industries such as high-speed rail 5G base stations and automated driving to take root in China.
It can be said that China's development over the past 20 years has been inseparable from real estate, which in turn has contributed to China's contribution to reaching the world's second largest GDP.
But just as there are two sides to a coin, the same is true for real estate. Our houses are getting more and more spacious, and it is more and more convenient to travel and shop, but many of us feel that life is getting more and more tired, so tired that our country's natural fertility rate has hit a new low in 2021, so tired that we regard it as a blessing, and even more tired, of course, even if we work hard every day, but looking at the wages and high housing prices, I can't help but feel helpless and sad.
Chinese real estate is like a movie dragon slayer warrior, at the beginning we rode the dragon to fight in all directions, and achieved impressive results, but gradually we found that the dragon under the crotch has slowly not accepted our taming, and when we leave our opponents behind us and climb over the mountains to be complacent, we found that this partner who made us proud to get along with each other in the past gradually showed their fangs, and real estate continued to bring heavy shackles to every Chinese in the rush of progress.
We didn't know it at first, but as the shackles grew heavier, we found it difficult to even lift the sword in our hands, not to mention continue to fight.
Over the past 20 years, with the rapid rise of real estate investment, the amount of debt and leverage ratio of our country's residents have also increased by leaps and bounds, and the leverage ratio of China's residents has reached 72 in 20205%, much higher than the 50 in emerging economiesThe average of 8% is close to the average of the euro area, and exceeds that of many developed countries such as Germany, Italy, Austria, and Singapore, and the growth rate of household leverage ratio in the past decade is the largest in the world.
In addition, the amount of personal loans has reached 6319 trillion yuan, what is this concept? In 2020, China's population over 14 years old was 11Calculated by 600 million people, the average amount of debt per person in China is 550,000 yuan, for Chinese with an annual disposable income of less than 30,000 yuan, the debt burden is not heavy, under the pressure of high leverage ratio and debt amount, if the economy is in the ** cycle, at least the cash earned can afford the interest expense of the mortgage, afraid that once the economy declines, income declines. Then many people will face the dilemma of cutting off the supply or even having the house being forcibly auctioned off, so owning a property that is enough for everyone to show off has become a nightmare for some people, and this mount under the crotch has become a demon that devours itself in the blink of an eye.
Unfortunately, these speculations have happened to many people in reality, as I have been saying before, real estate is not just a matter of living, it is also related to too many industries, and at the same time, because of other multiple added value, it can be said that it directly affects everyone's life.
Therefore, the mortgage payment is definitely not only an economic problem, but also a social problem. In the past 20 years, the housing prices have made everyone have a sense of urgency to buy a house, no matter what, first empty the wallets of six people and get on the car, anyway, in the past 20 years, housing prices have only risen and not fallen, even if the loan pressure at that time is greater, thinking of the back house price several times or even more than ten times to appreciate, it is nothing.
But now, the spirit of rent is not speculation, has gradually penetrated the hearts of the people, the local real estate regulation, a little relaxation, will usher in the above head drink, real estate long-term expectations, has been completely broken, and the local policy of restricting sales and loans will lock the second-hand housing in the transaction link, so if you are burdened with high debt at this time, to maintain a set of negative assets that are likely not to be in the short term, and may even be **will**, Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, residents' income has decreased, and the cost of holding a house is much higher than the income.
Therefore, many ** people today are discussing topics such as lying flat, low desire to return to idyllic life, etc., which is very different from the well-known expression that love will win and a happy life must be struggled out of a few years ago.
In addition to the overall decline in the economy, it is difficult to catch up with the current high housing prices through normal wage income, which is also one of the important reasons for the turn.
Since ancient times, it is not easy for individuals to own a house, so how to let people, especially young people, have a place to live, is what our country has always been concerned about, especially in the context of the continuous decline in the birth rate of the current population, it is urgent to solve the housing problem, and the opportunity is fleeting, and the establishment of a multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee of rent at the same time, is also an important measure for our country to vigorously promote now and in the next few years.
We can see that even if it may trigger bad debt expectations, then the state has been unwavering in the three red line policy of real estate financing.
In 2021, with the introduction of the opinions on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing, the construction of affordable housing and public rental housing in various places is also on the agenda, among which Shanghai proposed to build 400,000 affordable rental housing during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, accounting for about 40% of the total housing volume, Guangzhou is also planning to complete the task of raising 600,000 affordable rental housing by 2025. Because it takes time for any plan to be implemented and effective.
However, no matter from the will of the first or the transmission of the policy, we can clearly see that our purpose is to tame the dragon of real estate, not to eliminate it, but to make it a tool to stimulate the economy, rather than a shackle imposed on us.
But then again, whether we don't have a house, we are actually very small in the torrent of the times, we are powerless to prevent the changes of the times, and we have no right to ask the house price to rise and fall according to our own wishes.
Housing prices are not so much a mountain that we can't get around, because when we see a mountain, we want to climb, we want to conquer, we want to reach the top of the mountain, this is human nature.
But in fact, the so-called top of the mountain is only a part of the mountain, there is nothing special about it, each of us is just a passerby of the mountain, and climbing to the top of the mountain is the meaning we ourselves give to the mountain, not the meaning of the original existence of the mountain.
In addition, there is not only a mountain of housing in life, but because this mountain is too conspicuous, too towering, and carries too much pressure from society, other peaks and scenery are blocked. Climbing to the top of the mountain is not a necessary option in itself, because life is long, a smile from a child, a commendation for work, the washing of the soul with an epiphany, and the joy brought by a public relations scientific research project are all worthy of our stop.
Finally, I hope that each of us can find the destination in our hearts, to give each mountain a different meaning in the future, so as to find a different scenery in our own life.