More than two months have passed since the Israeli offensive against Gaza and the war with Hamas, and the Israeli army has not achieved a clear large-scale victory in the conflict. Instead, they were caught up in a series of street fights, facing resistance from Hamas guerrillas, resulting in a large number of **.
However, it is surprising that Israel is actually planning to launch an operation on the second battlefield!
On 18 December, IDF spokesman Jonathan Conricus claimed that the Israeli military had developed a plan to invade southern Lebanon, which had been approved by the Israeli military hierarchy and had established a timetable for the operation.
On December 24, Israel's Ministry of Defense announced a "large-scale" strike on Lebanese Allah targets, using fighter jets to attack Allah military installations, rocket launchers and other targets.
This raises the question of why Israel is attacking Lebanon while fighting HamasIs Allah Lebanese capable of resisting such pressure?
It is not surprising that Israel seeks to launch an offensive against Allah in Lebanon. Since the outbreak of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, Allah in Lebanon has been extremely active. Exchanges of fire with Israeli forces are taking place on a daily basis, particularly at the Cape Hanikla Kibbutz in the north-western corner of Israel, on the border with Lebanon. The evacuation of Jews who had lived here for fear of the spread of the war underscored tensions in the region.
Lebanon's history is rooted in its affiliation during the Arab Empire and subsequently under the rule of the Ottoman Empire. In the 19th century, the country was divided into two provinces, the north controlled by the Maronites and the south dominated by the Druze sect of Islam. However, after the end of World War I, Lebanon was occupied by France.
On November 22, 1943, Lebanon successfully freed itself from French rule and declared its independence, establishing the Lebanese Republic. According to the agreement at that time, the commander-in-chief of the army was to be a member of the Maronite sect, the speaker of parliament and the prime minister were to be Shia and Sunni respectively, and the seats of parliamentarians and ministers were distributed according to the proportion of the population of each sect.
Over time, however, the proportions of the population of the various religious denominations have changed, which has led to the destruction of the original political balance and the increasing tensions between the different religious denominations.
In the 70s of the 20th century, an important factor of change appeared - the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The organization is led by the famous "Immortal Bird of the Middle East" Yasser Arafat.
The PLO has long used the West Bank and East Jerusalem, then occupied by Jordan, as bases of operations against Israel. However, in the third Middle East war, Israel successfully seized the West Bank and East Jerusalem, resulting in the area originally inhabited by more than 1 million Palestinians, of whom more than 400,000 fled to Jordan with the retreat of the Jordanian army, forming a large-scale refugee camp. At the same time, members of the PLO came to Jordan.
Over time, the PLO continued to wage armed resistance against Israel in refugee camps inside Jordan. This situation has put Jordan in a dilemma.
On the one hand, an attack by the PLO will inevitably provoke retaliatory action by Israel, but if Israel attacks the PLO in Jordan, it will in fact violate Jordan's sovereignty, which makes Jordan a passive victim.
On the other hand, despite the fact that the refugee camps are located in Jordan, the PLO manages them independently and does not comply with Jordanian law, which leads to a dual governance situation within the State.
As mentioned above, these events and developments in Lebanese history have made Lebanese Allah very active and deeply involved in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Tensions between Jordan and the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) have long escalated. Between 1968 and the end of 1969, there were more than 500 armed conflicts between the two sides. After that, the leadership of the Palestine Liberation Organization intended to take radical measures:
They planned to assassinate the King of Jordan, Hussein ibn Talal, and tried to establish their rule in Jordan, which led to multiple assassination attempts and military clashes in Jordan.
The situation deteriorated further when on 6 September 1970, PLO, a faction within the PLO, hijacked three Western airliners, kidnapped 300 American, British, Israeli, West German and Swiss passengers hostage, and demanded the release of Palestinian prisoners. When their demands were not met, the PLO militants blew up the three planes.
The incident seriously damaged the image of the PLO on the international stage and sparked condemnation from the international community. The Jordanian military, having finally had enough of it without the king's order, launched a full-scale attack on the PLO. In just five days, the Jordanian army wiped out some 4,000 Palestinian guerrillas and even entered the camps** tens of thousands of Palestinian refugees.
The conflict, known as the "Black September Incident", hit the PLOs hard, forcing them to flee to Lebanon. However, the arrival of the PLO has greatly changed the balance between the Lebanese ** religion and Islam forces, triggering a rapid escalation of contradictions between the two sides.
In April 1975, Lebanon played an important role in the 15-year civil war between religious and Islamic factions, and at the same time repeatedly crossed the Lebanese-Israeli border and launched attacks against Israel.
In retaliation for the PLO, Israel launched an invasion of Lebanon on June 6, 1982, leading to the Fifth Middle East War. In this invasion, Israel expelled all civilians from the occupied Lebanese territories and supported the pro-Israel Lebanese Church Phalangist to carry out a massive campaign against Muslims, resulting in countless Islamists becoming refugees, including about 600,000 Shia refugees.
Shiite refugees have been displaced and have poured into the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut. These homeless people face the plight of having nowhere to put themselves, no jobs, and no hope, leading to extreme hostility and resentment towards Israel.
Encouraged by this hostility, Iran stepped in and supported Shia Muslims, co-founding Allah to oppose Israel.
A large number of Shiite refugees went to Iran for military training, and then returned to their homeland with ** and began an armed rebellion against Israel. In the process, Lebanese Allah received significant military aid from Iran, and its leader, Fadra, became close partners with Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali.
Allah Lebanon has become the de facto representative of Iran in Lebanon, persisting in attacks on Israeli-claimed safe zones with a desire to return to its homeland. Despite being considered a terrorist organization by Israel and having led to the death of Allah leader Mousavi, Israel has not been able to fully ** the resistance of Allah Lebanon.
Eventually, after 18 years of armed struggle and guerrilla warfare, the Israeli army in southern Lebanon was exhausted and finally withdrew from Lebanon in 2000.
Israel's withdrawal gave Allah, the hero of the "resistance to Israel", a great victory, and took control of southern Lebanon, effectively establishing a "state within a state" in Lebanon.
Although the Lebanese Allah Party is not the ruling party of Lebanon, and its armed forces are not the Lebanese army, it has a huge political and military network and powerful armed forces, making it one of Israel's most formidable enemies in the Middle East.
Despite Israel's withdrawal, it still controls a number of key areas and strongholds, so the conflict between Allah and Israel has not ended, and the two sides continue to exchange fire.
The Lebanese Allah Party has been able to fight Israel for a long time because it has a large political and military network and a strong armed force, controlling a considerable part of Lebanese territory, making it a formidable opponent of Israel in the Middle East.
This committee is greatly influenced by Iran on issues of academic affairs and must follow the authority of the Supreme Leader of Iran, especially when academic and administrative affairs are intertwined. Two senior members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are involved in major decisions, especially when it comes to war, such as the 2006 Lebanese-Israeli war, when Iran's Quds Force commander Soleimani traveled to southern Lebanon to participate in decision-making.
The Shura Council was relatively simple and efficient, with executive, judicial, parliamentary, political and jihadist commissions, each with a number of specific bodies. In addition, the Armed Forces Agency and the Ministry of Intelligence and Security have been established.
The structure is concise and efficient, somewhat similar to the North Korean model (in fact, Lebanon and North Korea have close ties). This high degree of organization guarantees the cohesion, execution and combat effectiveness of this group. In fact, in Lebanon, the areas controlled by Allah have always been exemplary in terms of infrastructure construction, education and medical care, efficiency and corruption.
However, Lebanese Allah is best known for its armed forces.
Lebanese Allah has not disclosed the number of its armed forces, but estimates include 1,000 officers and 6,000 to 10,000 volunteers (soldiers), which may seem like a small number. But because of the integrated nature of Allah's military and political forces, they can easily mobilize tens of thousands of personnel to fight if there is a demand.
In terms of military equipment, Allah has superior equipment than Hamas. Unlike Hamas, which is blockaded, Allah is able to continue to receive Iranian military aid through Syria. They have not only light **, anti-tank missiles and rockets, but also ballistic, anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles!Rumor has it that Lebanese Allah even received instruction from tactical instructors and engineering experts from the Korean People's Army Army.
Israel even admits Allah as "by far the largest guerrilla organization in the world." If I had to use an analogy, Hamas was as formalized as the Boxers, while Allah was as formalized as the six towns of Beiyang.
The pivotal moment when Allah Lebanon really stepped into the world's attention was the Lebanese-Israeli war in 2006.
The roots of this war can be traced back to the activities of Hamas. On 27 January 2006, Hamas, a supporter of the armed forces, won Palestinian elections, which caused Israel to feel very anxious and began to impose a blockade on Palestine, which caused displeasure in Hamas. Clashes ensued between the two sides, with Israel arresting and detaining ministers and parliamentarians from Hamas**, followed by massive bombing and incursions into Gaza.
After the conflict broke out, Allah declared its support for Hamas. On 12 July 2006, Allah forces launched a military operation codenamed "Honest Promises" and launched a surprise attack on northern Israel, killing eight Israeli soldiers and taking two prisoners.
Israel retaliated with a military operation known as Operation Justice Reward, which inflicted massive air strikes on Lebanon and carried out ground incursions. During the operation, Du Zhaoyu, an officer of China's UN peacekeeping force, was killed as a result of Israeli bombing.
However, Israel's ground operation did not go smoothly.
First, on 19 July, the Israeli army attacked the village of Maru Rasas in southern Lebanon. Allah soldiers have only 17 in the village, and even with the reinforcements of the militia less than 50.
The result?Despite the fact that Israel sent the elite 7th, 188th, and 401st armoured brigades, as well as special forces, totaling 4,000 troops, supported by tanks and armoured convoys, as well as artillery and air force, the Israeli army was unable to penetrate the village in the face of such an overwhelming number.
Israel fired 8,000 shells a day, bombing villages into rubble, but Allah used buildings and tunnels to effectively resist using motorcycles, rifles and rocket launchers. They killed and wounded more than 30 Israeli troops, who were unable to take control of the village after 10 days of fighting.
Allah discovered in a battle that their tactics could effectively restrain the Israeli army's superiority in firepower and equipment in densely built areas, which dealt a heavy blow to the Israeli army.
In the small town of Bint al-Jubail on the Lebanese border, Israel mobilized a strong elite force, including the 1st Infantry Brigade and the 35th Parachute Brigade, totaling more than 5,000 people, to try to occupy this strategic town. Allah has only about 40 defenders in the town, and about 100 militiamen.
As a result, the Israeli 1st Infantry Brigade was ambushed in the outer groves before entering the town, and a platoon of 26 men was defeated, with only 1 surviving. The Israeli army has been hit hard and has not dared to take a more aggressive offensive and has opted instead to continue bombarding the town.
During the 19-day bombardment, 87 per cent of the town's buildings were destroyed, killing 76 civilians and killing 32 Allah soldiers (mostly from the bombing). However, the number of people engaged in substantial fighting with Israel is very limited, with only a few wounded. Allah, although winning more with less, killed 17 Israelis and wounded nearly 100, ultimately prevented Israel's successful occupation.
This victory made Allah famous, and with only a few forces, it was able to contain the regular army of Israel's four main brigades and successfully hold the town, with a ** ratio of more than 1:7, which is very rare in the history of Middle Eastern countries fighting Israel.
Finding that they could not conquer the town, the Israelites tried to bypass the town and attack the depths. However, they did not conduct adequate reconnaissance and did not control the heights as they passed through the valley of Wadi Saruki, and as a result, they were ambushed by Allah, 11 of the 24 Merkava tanks were hit, and the Israeli army had to withdraw in disarray.
These battles all but shattered Israel's confidence in reoccupying southern Lebanon, and it announced its withdrawal shortly thereafter. Since then, Israel has largely stopped provoking Allah.
Today, after more than a decade of development, the strength of Allah has been greatly enhanced. They now have more than 150,000 rockets, ten times more than Hamas. Unlike Hamas's handmade improvised rockets, Allah has a variety of models, including the Volcano heavy rocket, the Fajr-5 rocket with a range of 75 kilometers and the Zelzal-2 long-range rocket with a range of up to 210 kilometers. What's even more worrying is that they are also equipped with GPS-guided and 500-kilogram warhead FATEH-110 missiles, which can accurately hit Israel's strategic targets, such as air bases, military factories, seaports, power plants, and even institutions, etc., causing damage to Israel far beyond Hamas's capabilities.
Allah has Iranian versions of C802 anti-ship missiles, as well as Russian-supplied "Haoshi" and "Ruby" supersonic anti-ship missiles, demonstrating a strong deterrent.
In the face of Lebanon, which once left a shadow on its psyche, Israel does not seem to dare to act rashly before it has completed its rectification of Hamas, so as to avoid falling into a more complicated situation on the second battlefield.
In the operation against Lebanon, Israel is likely to retaliate only with air strikes, or through surprise attacks by small forces on the ground, rather than launching a large-scale invasion operation, as in the case of Gaza.