Someone has raised an impossible triangle of China's economy, is there such a problem?
The premise, of course, is what everyone is talking about now: economic growth is in a downward phase.
Obviously, the growth rate is in, why has it become a downward trend? This is talking about the growth rate, the growth rate was double digits a year ago, and since then it is a downward trend in the growth rate, and next year the experts agree that it will be lowered to because this year's growth rate is based on a weak platform last year.
In terms of trend, it is the downward trend of growth rate, not the downward trend of economic aggregate; But to judge the economic situation, it is to the downside. The economy is growing dynamically, and no growth, or slow growth, can be defined as a downward trend. There has always been a saying in the industry that for China's specific investment-based economy, the growth rate is lower than that is negative, because spending is expanding and investment efficiency is decreasing.
What problems do we have to solve in a downward phase?
First, steady growth.
To maintain growth, it is necessary to increase investment, and it is necessary to increase investment by a large margin, because the efficiency of investment has reached the margin, and in the past, it was necessary to invest three yuan to pull one yuan, but now it is necessary to invest nine yuan.
Second, stabilize employment.
This is a big problem, the economic downturn is because of overcapacity, not who has lost confidence, but orders do not support confidence; Overcapacity means that accommodative monetary policy is not working; The loan amount is liberalized, the number of people who take out loans is less, and enterprises are grabbing orders, desperately grabbing orders, and people are grabbing low profits, which is the scene of overcapacity. A large number of enterprises are going bankrupt, and a large number of enterprises are alive but dead, becoming zombie enterprises; Since it is overcapacity, how to stabilize growth?
After some study, it is believed that China's debt ratio is not too high compared with Japan's. The question is whether investment flows to state-owned enterprises, market demand and efficiency, and support for employment-oriented enterprises.
Third, stabilize prices.
Prices are a strange circle in the Chinese economy, which has been increasing by double digits, but it does not seem to be accompanied by high inflation in the world, on the contrary, the main correlation index is instead showing signs of deflation, which is a symptom that will soon pass.
Industrial indicators are trapped in the misallocation of resources, a large number of resources, the country's investment, is to the state-owned enterprises, in order to complete the performance appraisal of the localities, rather than to social demand and market efficiency; Liquidity is partly locked in long-term projects, and partly in the form of liabilities, while the private sector that supports employment lacks orders, and middle-income groups lack expectations for future employment and income, and consumption is suppressed.
In fact, it is not that prices have not risen, but that they are well controlled. In our daily commodities, grain and pork have a high weight, and if these two basic guarantees are done well, everyone will feel much better.
The Impossible Triangle
The above is the three stability of the policy, we don't have to look for the impossible triangle of China's economy all over the world, these three stability is a triangle.
What does it take to stabilize prices, tighten the currency**.
It's completely impossible.
Because next year is a year of debt, what does it mean? Since the house cannot be sold, the local government cannot make ends meet, and it has been supporting the operation with high debts, what to do when the debt is due, issuing special treasury bonds, and replacing short-term debts with long-term debts to ensure the normal operation of local finances; This year's debt, what will be the situation next year? The property market will not sell well next year, so the debt will continue to pile up, and the fiscal deficit must be expanded. Currency over-issuance will eventually reflect on prices, which are on a long-term channel, which is a high probability event.
The ultimate solution to the debt is high economic growth, and it is impossible to tighten the currency if the economy grows high, and this is the contradiction.
What does it depend on to stabilize employment, increase the currency**.
It's not impossible, it's meaningless.
Now it is not that the bank is short of money, financial intermediaries all over the world to play the first small and medium-sized enterprises, now the enterprise loans are not active, the lack of funds, the lack of orders, the greater pressure is the income statement and balance sheet, not thriving enterprises, the payment is against the market, most enterprises in a large cycle of overcapacity, what needs to be done is to shrink the balance sheet.
Ren Zeping and seven scholars jointly shouted to fight the economy, the passion is commendable, in fact, most of them will still have a chance if they don't fight, and they want to fight, not fight.
What does it depend on to stabilize the growth rate, and increase investment.
It's all too possible, but it's also the most terrifying.
High-speed rail is not tossed, now the new investment project is water conservancy, can not be said to be worthless, but China is collective ownership, it is difficult to take the road of large agriculture, like the United States, the two brothers' farm output value is more than 100 times that of Dazhai, then, if the investment is to protect In a sense, the gains and losses are half, because it is precisely because of the investment-driven economic model under the dual structure that the misallocation of resources has been caused, the efficiency has decreased, and the resources have not flowed to the market demand and people's livelihood, which determines that the income of Chinese residents is not synchronized with economic growth. As a result, today's overcapacity and economic downturn have been formed.
In other words, expanding investment will solve a temporary emergency at an extremely high cost, but it will aggravate the structural contradictions of the people.
Stabilizing growth, employment, and prices does not logically constitute a conflict, nor does there exist an impossible triangle, but in the real economy, there are indeed many contradictions.
Haven't we been doing the work of three stability for nearly ten years?
There is no stabilization, there is an impossible triangle, economic growth has been a downward trend since then, this year's, in fact, is a very weak data, is relative to last year's low, next year will slow down, will be more and more difficult; Employment has lost its judgment, and the youth unemployment rate, which most reflects the driving force of economic growth, has not been published since August, and it has been fixed in July This is a serious warning, because next year there will be another 10 million college students joining the employment army; Who is the source of employment? It can only be a private enterprise, and resources cannot effectively flow to private enterprises, and stable employment is the most unlikely in the impossible triangle; Prices are a time to test our judgment, and now the total debt of the whole country, from localities, state-owned enterprises, private enterprises to residents, has reached trillions of yuan, can prices be stabilized?
If the economy cannot be stimulated, if the private economy cannot re-enter high growth, China's economy will get out of the increasingly heavy debt pressure, and the most brutal way is currency depreciation, which will be manifested in the acceleration of prices. Hopefully, it won't happen and the economic recovery will be a long cycle.
There is no unsolvable triangle in the world, and the reason why it is unsolvable is because the economic structure is unbalanced.