The world** ended the final battle of 2023, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rose sharply throughout the year, with the Nasdaq rising by more than 43%;Corresponding to this is the three major A-share indexes for the whole year**, and the ChiNext index is **194%, leading the world.
There are many reasons for the double heaven of China and the United States, and one of the most important is the financial aspect: **It must be driven by funds!The inflow of funds into U.S. stocks is much greater than the outflow of funds, so **;A-shares are just the opposite, so adjust.
Looking forward to next year, China and the United States**, A-shares are expected to be stronger than U.S. stocks, and come out of the completely opposite outcome this yearThere are three main reasons:
1. A-shares have been adjusted for 2 consecutive years, and A-shares have never been adjusted for three consecutive years in history, and the overall valuation of A-shares is at a historical low, and the probability of next year's ** is relatively large.
If the management pays more attention to the reform of the investment side, there is a small probability event that the net inflow of funds is greater than the net outflow, and there may even be a unilateral big bull market in A-shares.
2. U.S. stocks are at an all-time high, and the Fed is about to enter a cycle of interest rate cuts. Judging from the last two rounds of interest rate cut cycles, U.S. stocks have experienced a wave of rapid ** before the rate cut, which is very similar to the current trend of U.S. stocks, and even continued to rise after the start of the interest rate cut, but then entered the rapid ** stage, and finally showed a bear market trend. That said, U.S. equities are likely to be cashing in on the positive side of rate hikes right now.
3. Although there was a net outflow of northbound funds in the second half of this year, giving investors the illusion that foreign investors are not optimistic about A-shares, in fact, it is mainly because of the continuous adjustment of A-shares and the Fed's continued interest rate hikes to attract some foreign investors to chase stable income, but the net inflow of northbound funds throughout the year is still nearly 43.7 billion yuan, indicating that foreign capital as a whole is still optimistic about the future trend of A-shares.
Foreign capital is profit-seeking, we don't have to think too much about other factors, which company is more likely to make profits in the future, and the funds will flow to. Next year, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates from March, and this part of the foreign capital chasing the stable income of the dollar is likely to return, driving A-shares**.
In short, with the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the U.S. stock market to a record high, A-shares in a valuation depression are extremely attractive to global funds. Kunpeng Project