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Global Auto Trade Network Information,December 23rd,Elon Musk said that prototypes are easy, but production is a nightmare. In the case of the long-awaited Cybertruck, Tesla's "difficulty" lies in its groundbreaking 4680 battery.
Automotive News).
Tesla delivered its futuristic stainless steel electric pickup truck last month, and CEO Elon Musk said in October that the Cybertruck could produce 250,000 units a year by sometime in 2025. But nine people with knowledge of the matter said Tesla is still a long way from that production rate, and one of the main bottlenecks is the speed at which the Cybertruck can make 4680 batteries with the new dry-coating technology.
According to a combination of Reuters calculations based on publicly available data and unpublished data provided by sources, Tesla's Texas Gigafactory is currently only producing enough for about 2The 4,680 battery cells powered by 40,000 cybertrucks are only one-tenth of the required production.
Dramatically increasing battery yields through the use of dry-coated electrodes, rather than using slower, more costly wet coatings, was a key factor in Tesla's efforts to cut battery costs by more than half in 2020, significantly reduce investment, and create smaller, greener factories.
The nine sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Tesla has not addressed the issue of dry-coating manufacturing 4680 batteries on an industrial scale to meet production targets.
In the 4680 battery, dry coating of the anode is not a problem, but Tesla has had trouble using the same technology on the cathode, which is the most expensive component in the battery, these people said.
"But so far, no one has applied it to a large EV battery at a large-scale, high-speed situation," he said. Tesla was the first to try commercialization. "Yuan Gao has been in the industry for thirty years. "The challenge is that Tesla not only needs to scale up and speed up production, but it also has to develop its own equipment and tools," he said. It can be said that this is a difficult task. ”
Tesla did not respond to a detailed question from Reuters.
Crack the passwordAccording to three sources, the 4680 battery in the Cybertruck consists of about 1,360 individual battery cells.
This means that Tesla needs to produce $3400 million battery cells, or nearly a million battery cells, for 250,000 electric pickup trucks, and the market is in a state of intense competition, with competitors including Ford's F-150 Lightning, Rivian's R1T and General Motors' electric Hummer.
According to Tesla, Reuters calculates that Tesla's Austin factory currently takes about 16 weeks to produce 10 million 4680 battery cells. That's the equivalent of 32.5 million batteries per year, or enough for 24,000 pickup trucks — and that's just for the Cybertruck.
Tesla also plans to use 4680 batteries to power other vehicles, especially the $25,000 smaller car that the company plans to launch in the mid-2020s.
Tesla has some limited 4680 battery production capacity in Fremont, California, but the plant is primarily used for pilot production. Panasonic, one of Tesla's long-term battery manufacturers, plans to build at least two factories in the United States, but has only started construction at the first plant.
Two of the nine people familiar with the matter believe that Tesla's progress in expanding production of 4680 batteries could gradually accelerate, especially once stable production technology is achieved on one production line.
They said that Tesla has been working to produce flawless batteries for the first time and establish stable production technology. It's a time-consuming process, but one of them said, "Once you've cracked the secret and established stability, it's like exponential growth." ”
"The pace will be accelerated," the person said. A lot of progress has been made in dry coating. ”
Tesla's battery expert Drew Baglino said in October that the company currently produces 4680 batteries on two production lines in Austin and plans to install a total of eight lines there in two phases, with the last four lines scheduled to be operational by the end of 2024. However, one of the two sources mentioned above said that it is not easy to replicate the established production technology and apply it to the next production line.
Only about 5% of the battery cells on the profitable production line are scrapped, but the scrap rate could rise to 30% to 50% and remain at that level for months after each new line is operational, the source said.
One of the sources said that Tesla's cathode dry coating method is no faster than the old wet coating, although the scrap rate has dropped to 10 to 20 percent.
Drew Baglino, who wrote this article, did not respond to a request for comment.
"A mess".Tesla is working to mix cathode materials, including lithium, manganese and nickel, with binders and stick them onto metal foil to produce cathodes without the use of water, the sources said.
Two of the sources said the process was effective in small batch trials, but when Tesla tried to scale up, it generated a lot of heat that caused the adhesive (known as polytetrafluoroethylene, or Teflon, according to one of the sources) to melt.
Another source said: "If you melt the glue, soon everything will be a slimy mess." ”
According to the source, the same problem for Tesla is the machine used to coat metal foil to produce battery electrodes, which is similar to a large magazine and newspaper printing machine with a large cylinder. In order to speed up battery production, Tesla is trying to coat the active battery material on multiple magnetic foil tapes at high speed at the same time.
In order to speed up battery production, Tesla is experimenting with coating multiple strips of magnetic foil with active battery material at high speed at the same time. This requires the use of large, wide rollers and the application of enormous pressure to press the material onto the foil. But because the drum is large and wide, applying pressure evenly becomes a challenge, the source said.
When the pressure is uneven, Tesla gets electrodes with uneven surface and thickness, which are useless for its battery cells and need to be discarded, the source said.
To add insult to injury, Tesla's Baglino said at a battery conference in March that Tesla was still building a new quality verification system to screen out batteries with defective coatings.
Specifically, it's about building data infrastructure during Tesla's battery development, manufacturing, and use, as in some cases, defects can be hidden in the coating and only become apparent months later, one of the people said.
In other words, Tesla doesn't yet know which dry batteries are good and which need to be scrapped, the source said.
Compiler: Global Auto Trade Network Stevie).