From December 11th to 12th, the ** Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. What do you think of the important signals released by the 2023 ** Economic Work Conference?More importantly, how to really "grasp the implementation" next year?
News 1+1" connected with Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, tonight, to focus on China's economy in 2024
Seeking progress in stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking": how to accurately understand the relationship between the three?
Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: These three are a progressive relationship.
Seeking progress while maintaining stability": this is the most basic requirement, and "stability" is still the basic tone in 2024. Because a series of problems facing next year, especially the risk issues such as insufficient effective demand, we still need to pay close attention. Only on the basis of "stability" can we carry out "progress" and carry out some structural reforms.
Promote stability with progress": with the promotion of various policies in 2023, the main contradiction of the macroeconomy has changed, and this change is currently in a critical period of structural adjustment, and in 2024, it is simply "stable" to seek "stability", which may not be "stable", which needs to be transferred from the short term to the medium term, from simple "stability" to structural adjustment, industrial upgrading, scientific and technological innovation and deep structure to promote, through adjustment to find new kinetic energy, A new growth fulcrum, thus laying a more solid foundation for "stability". This change is also an important step in the progress from short-termism to long-termism and to activism.
Establish first and then break down": This is a summary of the lessons and lessons learned from "promoting stability through progress" in the past. It is necessary to establish some new kinetic energy and new industries in order to transform some traditional projects and remove production capacity. Otherwise, there may be a vacuum in the industry and the vacuum in the operation of the economy, which will lead to some noise in the overall stability and some setbacks in the structural adjustment. Therefore, these three are a progressive relationship, a relationship that echoes each other.
How to understand that fiscal policy should be "moderately strengthened" and monetary policy should be "precise and effective"?
Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: "Afterburner" is the basic policy of continuing last year, but at the same time, this afterburner is "moderate", rather than a strong stimulus, flood irrigation, and super fiscal stimulus expansion advocated by many people. This is also the first economic work conference to effectively respond to some of the plans of "copying homework" put forward by some overseas scholars.
The meeting also suggested Xi to living a tight life and adapting to some spending reductions, rather than simply expanding across the board. Therefore, the fiscal policy should not only carry out "moderate strengthening" in terms of aggregate amount, but also exert force in terms of structure, and pay close attention to the difficulties faced by local finances, especially the "three guarantees" at the grassroots level.
The scale of social financing and the amount of money should not only be consistent with the GDP growth rate, but also consistent with the expected target of the price level. At present, the price level is still low, which determines the growth rate of the total amount of social financing next year, and it may be further improved on the basis of the nominal GDP growth rate, so as to provide effective and sufficient liquidity. The meeting emphasized the reduction of social financing costs, which also hinted at further interest rate cuts and fee reductions.
How do you see the changes in the mission next year?
Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics:
The first task has been changed to "scientific and technological innovation," which shows that the focus and tasks of economic work have changed along with the changes in the main contradictions and main aspects of the contradictions in the entire macroeconomy. It is necessary to seek "stability" in the short term, and on the basis of the strategy of expanding domestic demand, we should focus on "scientific and technological innovation leading the construction of a modern industrial system", because this is the core strategic fulcrum of building a new development pattern, and it is also the core fulcrum of building a new growth momentum and a new growth foundation. "Technological innovation" is very important in the medium term, and it is also the key way to build new confidence and break some of the current puzzles.
For issues such as people's livelihood and ecology, in fact, the first economic work conference has paid attention to it in the past, but it has not been set up separately. In fact, this time it is also required that in next year's economic work, the focus should be diversified, and it should be steadily promoted in accordance with the layout of high-quality development and new development pattern pointed out by the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. This also shows that the measure of "seeking progress while maintaining stability and promoting stability with progress" has been fully reflected in the key work, and there must be a starting point and a point of implementation.
How to "improve social expectations" next year?
Liu Yuanchun, macroeconomist and president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics: Adjusting expectations is the top priority of macroeconomic policy, and it is also the most difficult goal. Usually through some counter-cyclical policies and the expansion of domestic demand, corporate profits and household incomes will be enhanced, so as to improve expectations. However, at the moment of great changes unseen in a century, at the moment of domestic and foreign difficulties, many expectations are not only macroeconomic policies, but also more about geopolitical risks and the release of some non-traditional risks.
In order to stabilize expectations, it is necessary to take new measures to adjust expectations beyond ordinary economic policies. First, it is necessary to introduce a series of new measures for reform and opening up, especially some new measures that can be implemented, to adjust expectations. The second is very important, in evaluating the consistency of macroeconomic policies, we must take the sense of gain and feeling of micro subjects as the evaluation criteria, rather than simply some statistical macro indicators as the judgment criteria.
With regard to the current situation, it is necessary to make vertical and horizontal comparisons, and through a correct interpretation of the glorious prospects of China's economy, we should hedge against some pessimistic theories overseas, so that economic entities can have an objective and rational understanding of the foundation of China's long-term economic situation and the elasticity and resilience of China's economy. Therefore, these aspects actually need to be further strengthened, and at the same time, the adjustment of expectations is taken as a foothold of the policy.
*: CCTV news client).