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The content is excerpted from "Nongxiao Bee: 2023 China Grain Production Trend and Structural Data Analysis Report", the original report is about 20,000+ words, including 58 charts.
Judging from the overall trend, China's grain sown area has stabilized significantly, and the output has increased steadily. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, from 2012 to 2023, China's grain sowing area has remained above 1.7 billion mu for 12 consecutive years – with a peak of 178845 in 2016090,000 mu (about 17..)8.8 billion mu), with a sub-peak of 178452 in 2023750,000 mu (about 178.5 billion mu);From 2018 to 2023, the year-on-year fluctuation of China's grain sown area has remained within 1% for six consecutive years. From 2015 to 2023, China's grain output has remained at 6 for 9 consecutive yearsmore than 500 million tons, and the output scale in 2023 (695.41 million tons, about 6.9.5 billion tons) has approached 700 million tons;Since 2016, the year-on-year fluctuation range of China's grain output has remained within 2% as a whole, and the "2019-2023" period has once again shown a slight year-on-year growth trend.
From the perspective of production structure, China's grain sowing area and output are divided into "autumn grain", summer grain and early rice according to the harvest seasonIn terms of varieties, China's grain sowing area presents a perennial production structure of "cereals", beans and potatoes, while grain output presents a perennial production structure of "cereals", "potatoes" and beans. The overall production of major cereal products was the area structure of "corn", "rice", "wheat", "millet", "sorghum", "barley", "oats" and "buckwheat", and the output structure of "corn", "rice", "wheat", "sorghum", "millet", "barley", "oats" and "buckwheat". The main bean products present the production structure of "soybean", "mung bean" and "wheat". Potato products are mainly "potatoes".
In terms of production distribution, nearly 30% of China's grain is distributed in Heilongjiang, Henan and Shandong. More than 50% of early rice is concentrated in Hunan and Jiangxi;About 50% of the area and output of summer grain are distributed in Henan, Shandong and Anhui;More than 15% of the autumn grain is distributed in Heilongjiang. About 30% of the grain is distributed in Heilongjiang, Henan and Shandong, of which nearly 15% of the corn is distributed in Heilongjiang;More than 35% of the rice is distributed in Heilongjiang, Hunan and Jiangxi;More than 50% of wheat is distributed in Henan, Shandong and Anhui;More than 50% of millet is distributed in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi;More than 20% of sorghum is distributed in Inner Mongolia;More than 25% of the barley is distributed in **;Nearly 50% of oats are distributed in Inner Mongolia;About 20% of buckwheat is found in Inner Mongolia. More than 40% of the beans are distributed in Heilongjiang, of which more than 45% of the soybeans are distributed in Heilongjiang;More than 20% of mung beans are distributed in Inner Mongolia;More than 40% of the red adzuki beans are distributed in Heilongjiang. Nearly 20% of potatoes are distributed in Sichuan, of which more than 40% are distributed in Guizhou, Sichuan and Gansu.
On December 11, 2023, the announcement of the National Bureau of Statistics on the grain production data in 2023 showed that according to the survey of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) across the country, the national grain sowing area in 2023 will be 17845280,000 acres (about 178.5 billion mu), compared with the 177498 in 202220,000 acres (about 17.)7.5 billion mu) increased by 95460,000 acres, an increase of about 054%；The grain output was 695.41 million tons (about 6.).9.5 billion tons), compared with 68,652 in 2022770,000 tons (about 6.)8.7 billion tons) increased by 888230,000 tons, an increase of about 129%；The yield per unit area is 38969 kg mu, compared with 386 in 202278 kg mu increased by 291 kg mu, an increase of about 075%。
Figure 1: Overview of national grain sown area, output and yield per unit area in 2023.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）
Based on the data of grain sowing area and output accumulated in the operation process of Nongxiao bee, this paper analyzes the trend and structure of national grain production and the output of grain in various provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government), so as to provide reference for the subjects and social service organizations engaged in scientific research, breeding, planting, processing, warehousing, packaging, transportation, sales and other activities in the upstream and downstream of the food industry chain.
1.1.The year-on-year fluctuation of grain sown area has remained within 1 percent for six consecutive years
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, since 1949, China's grain sown area has been affected by comprehensive factors such as demand fluctuations, industrial structure adjustment, and post-agricultural census data revision, mainly in 1957, 1958, 1959, 1961, 1963, 1965, 1967, 1968, 1973, 1974, 1976, 1977, 1979, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1984, In 1985, 1988, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2017, 2018, and 2019, there was a year-on-year decline, with a decline of 004%~9.08%;1949 In 2023, the largest year-on-year decline will be 908%, the largest year-on-year increase was 552%；"Between 1949 and 1971" and "between 1979 and 2005" fluctuated relatively widely;Since 2018, the fluctuation range has remained within 1% as a whole, and the overall trend of stabilization is obvious.
Figure 2: Trend of grain "sown area" in China from 1949 to 2023.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）
From the perspective of area scale, from 1949 to 2023, the minimum value of China's grain sown area is 149115 in 2003560,000 mu (about 14..)9.1 billion mu) - it is also the only year since the founding of the People's Republic of China with an area of less than 1.5 billion mu;The maximum was 204508 in 1956950,000 mu (about 204.5 billion mu);From 1956 to 1957, China's grain sowing area remained above 2 billion mu for two consecutive years.
From 1978 to 2023, the minimum value of China's grain sown area is still 149115 in 2003560,000 mu (about 14..)9.1 billion mu), with a maximum of 180,880 in 197880,000 acres (about 180.9 billion mu);Since 1979, it has dropped to less than 1.8 billion mu, and then remained below 1.8 billion mu until 2023.
1.2.Grain output has shown a slight year-on-year growth trend for five consecutive years
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, since 1949, China's grain output has been mainly affected by comprehensive factors such as the decline in grain sown area in "1959, 1961, 1968, 1977, 1980, 1985, 1988, 1991, 1994, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2003, and 2018", as well as in "1960, 1972, 1997, and 2016" Affected by comprehensive factors such as extreme climate and data correction after the agricultural census, there was a year-on-year decline, with a decrease of 003%~15.22%;
Between 1949 and 2023, the largest year-on-year decline was 1522%, the largest year-on-year increase was 1674%；1978 In 2023, the largest year-on-year decline was 909%, the largest year-on-year increase was 949%；"Between 1949 and 2004" fluctuated relatively widely;Since 2005, the fluctuation range has narrowed significantly, and the fluctuation range has remained within 6% as a wholeThanks to the development of science and technology and the improvement of yields, China's grain output showed a slight year-on-year growth trend for 12 consecutive years from 2004 to 2015Since 2016, the fluctuation range has remained within 2% as a whole, and the "2019 to 2023" has once again shown a slight year-on-year growth trend, showing a steady and increasing development trend as a whole.
Figure 3: Trends in national grain production from 1949 to 2023.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）
From the perspective of production scale, from 1949 to 2023, the minimum value of China's grain output is 11,318 in 194940,000 tons (about 1.)1.3 billion tons);The maximum value is 695.41 million tons in 2023 (about 6.41 million tons9.5 billion tons) – about 614 times. Affected by comprehensive factors such as yield differences and the adjustment of statistical survey methods and scopes, the minimum value of grain sown area in China from 1949 to 2023 (149115560,000 mu (about 14..)9.1 billion mu) corresponding to the year - 2003 grain output of 43,069530,000 tons (about 4.)3.1 billion tons), which was already 381 times;1949 The maximum grain sown area in China in 2023 (204508950,000 mu (about 204.5 billion mu) corresponding to the year - 1956 grain production was 1927560,000 tons (about 1.)9.3 billion tons), which is about 17 times.
From 1978 to 2023, the minimum value of China's grain production is 30,476 in 197850,000 tons (about 3.)0.5 billion tons);The maximum value is 695.41 million tons in 2023 (about 6.41 million tons9.5 billion tons) – about 228 times. Affected by comprehensive factors such as yield differences and adjustment of statistical survey methods and scopes, the minimum value of grain sown area in China from 1978 to 2023 (149115560,000 mu (about 14..)9.1 billion mu) corresponding to the year - 2003 grain output of 43,069530,000 tons (about 4.)3.1 billion tons), which is about 141 times;1978 The maximum grain sown area in China in 2023 (18088080,000 acres (about 180.9 billion mu) corresponds to the year of 1978.
From the perspective of key time nodes, China's grain output mainly showed a year-on-year decline in "1959-1961" and "1999-2001", and the change trend in the rest of the years was mainly growth. In 1966, China's grain output was 21,40090,000 tons (about 2.)1.4 billion tons) exceeded 200 million tons for the first time;1978 with 3047650,000 tons (about 3.)0.5 billion tons) exceeded 300 million tons for the first time;1984 to 4073050,000 tons (about 4.)0.7 billion tons) exceeded 400 million tons for the first time;1996 with 5045350,000 tons (about 5.)0.5 billion tons) exceeded 500 million tons for the first time;In 2012 with 61222620,000 tons (about 6.)1.2 billion tons) exceeded 600 million tons for the first time;In 2015 to 66060270,000 tons (about 6.)6.1 billion tons) exceeded 6500 million tons - 2015 2023 has remained at 6 for 9 consecutive yearsmore than 500 million tons, and the output scale in 2023 (695.41 million tons, about 6.9.5 billion tons) has approached 700 million tons;
2.1.Seasons: Autumn Grain, Summer Grain, Early Rice
From the perspective of the harvest season, China's grain is mainly divided into three categories: "early rice, summer grain, and autumn grain". Among them, "early rice" refers to "early indica rice", which is the earliest season of rice on the market in China, and it is also the first grain crop planted and harvested in that yearSummer grain, also known as "summer harvest grain", is called "spring harvest grain crop" in Guangdong Province, Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region and other places, and "small spring grain crop" in Chongqing and other places, which refers to "sowing in the autumn, winter and spring of the previous year" and "the harvest season is in."
All grain crops in the first and second quarters, including winter wheat, summer and spring wheat, barley, yuan wheat, broad beans, peas, summer potatoes, etc.;"Autumn grain", also known as "autumn harvest grain", refers to the grain crops sown in spring and summer and harvested in autumn, such as: medium rice, late rice, corn, sorghum, millet, sweet potato, soybean, etc.
Affected by comprehensive factors such as geographical location, climatic environment and regional hydrological differences, China's grain production is dominated by "autumn grain", and the "sown area" and "yield" maintain the production structure of "autumn grain", "summer grain" and "early rice" all year round.
In 2023, the sown area of "autumn grain" in the country will be 131,44020,000 acres (about 131.4 billion mu), with an output of 520.92 million tons (about 5.).2.1 billion tons) - the sown area of grain in the country in 2023 (17845280,000 acres (about 178.5 billion mu) and output (695.41 million tons, about 69.5 billion tons). 91%；The sown area of "summer grain" was 39,91290,000 acres (about 3.)9.9 billion mu), with a yield of 14,61520,000 tons (about 1.)4.6 billion tons) - the proportion of the country's grain sown area and production in 2023, respectively. 02%；The sown area of "early rice" is 7099650,000 mu, with an output of 283370,000 tons - the proportion of the national grain sowing area and output in 2023 respectively. 07%。
Figure 4: 2022 2023 China's grain "sown area" and "output" by season.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）
2.2.By variety: more than 80% of them are cereals
Driven by the consumption demand brought about by China's food culture and the planting tradition, China's grain production is dominated by grains. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, China's grain sowing area presents a perennial production structure of "cereals", "beans" and "potatoes", and due to the difference in yields, the grain output presents a perennial production structure of "cereals", "potatoes" and "beans".
In 2023, the sown area of cereals in China will be 14988960,000 acres (about 14..)9.9 billion mu), the output was 641.43 million tons (about 6.4.1 billion tons) - the national grain sown area in 2023 (17845280,000 acres (about 178.5 billion mu) and output (695.41 million tons, about 69.5 billion tons). 24%；The sown area of beans is 1799130,000 acres (about 1.).800 million mu), the output is 238410,000 tons - the proportion of the national grain sown area and output in 2023 respectively. 43%；The sown area of potatoes is 105.72 million mu (about 10.6 billion mu), the output is 301390,000 tons - the proportion of the national grain sowing area and production in 2023 respectively. 33%。
Figure 5: 2022 2023 China's grain "sown area" and "yield" structure by variety.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）
In terms of further subdivision of products, in China, cereals mainly include rice, wheat, corn, barley, sorghum, buckwheat and oats, among which, the sown area and output are the highest in corn as "China's largest grain crop", rice as "China's largest ration crop" ranks second, and wheat as "China's second largest ration crop" ranks third. Taking the 2023 data as an example, the proportion of corn sown area and production in the national cereals is as high. 03%；The sown area and the proportion of rice production in the national cereals were respectively. 21%；The sown area and the proportion of wheat production in the national cereals, respectively. 29%。
Figure 6: Structure of cereal production in China in 2021 and 2023.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）
Further expanding the scope of comparison, in 2021 (the data of millet, sorghum, barley oats, buckwheat and other products in 2022 and after have not been fully released and are not homogeneous and comparable), the national cereal sown area will be 150264990,000 mu (about 150.3 billion mu), with an output of 63,275690,000 tons (about 6.)3.3 billion tons).
The overall production of major cereal products was the area structure of "corn", "rice", "wheat", "millet", "sorghum", "barley", "oats" and "buckwheat", and the output structure of "corn", "rice", "wheat", "sorghum", "millet", "barley", "oats" and "buckwheat". Among them, the sown area of millet is 1392750,000 mu and an output of 28860,000 tonnes – the proportion of the country's grain sown area and production in 2021 respectively. 46%；The sown area of sorghum is 106980,000 mu and the output is 33770,000 tonnes – in 2021, the country's grain sown area and production respectively. 53%；The sown area of barley was 8.13 million mu and the yield was 2.13 million40,000 tonnes – in 2021, the proportion of the country's cereal sown area and production respectively. 34%；The sown area of oats is 595050,000 mu, the output is 6870,000 tonnes – in 2021, the country's grain sown area and production respectively. 11%；The sown area of buckwheat is 56730,000 acres, the output is 4820,000 tonnes – the proportion of the country's cereal sown area and production in 2021 respectively. 08%。
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2023, the grain sowing area of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government) will be 134250,000 acres 22.1 billion mu (22114650,000 mu), with a yield of 7170,000 tons 778820,000 tons - "Heilongjiang Province" ranks first in the country, with a specific area of 22,114650,000 mu (about 2.).2.1 billion mu), the output scale is 778820,000 tons, in 2023 the national grain sowing area (17845280,000 acres (about 178.5 billion mu) and output (695.41 million tons, about 69.5 billion tons). 2%。
Figure 7: Distribution of China's grain "sown area" and "output" by province in 2023.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）
The total grain sowing area of "Heilongjiang Province, Henan Province, and Shandong Province", which ranks among the top three in the country in terms of grain sowing area and output, will reach 50,874 in 2023450,000 mu (about 5.)0.9 billion mu), with a total output of 20,06780,000 tons (about 2.)0.1 billion tons) - the total proportion of the national grain sown area and production in 2023 is respectively. 86%；In 2022, the total sown area of grain will reach 50,75070,000 acres (about 5.)0.8 billion mu), with a total output of 20,09630,000 tons (about 2.)0.1 billion tons) - the total proportion of the national grain sown area and production in 2022 respectively. 59%。
Figure 8: Breakdown of China's 2023 grain "sown area" and "output" in China's provinces.
Data**: National Bureau of Statistics Mapping: Nong Xiao Bee abee datacom）