On December 24, a record 125 ships were diverted to the Cape of Good Hope, breaking all previous records and even surpassing the number of Ever Given when it ran aground in the Suez Canal in March 2021.
However, not long ago, on December 26, Linerlytica released a report reminding us that at that time, the Suez Canal was closed for seven days due to the grounding of the "Ever Give", and fewer than 20 ships chose to be diverted.
The number of ships diverted by these reroutes is equivalent to a staggering 1.77 million TEUs. Linerlytica warned that a capacity crisis could be on the horizon because these vessels, which were supposed to return to Asia via the Suez Canal from the east coast of Europe and the United States, were delayed by two to three weeks.
The current situation is that most ships passing through the Suez Canal are detouring the African route, which puts extreme pressure on the freight market.
And now, coinciding with the peak shipping period ahead of the Lunar New Year, which begins on February 10, 2024, this situation has already had a profound impact on the freight market.
The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell by 15% on December 22, an unprecedented increase. At the same time, the freight rate from Asia to Northern Europe was nearly 46% week-on-week** to $1,497 TEU;The freight rate from Asia to the Mediterranean** is nearly 31% to $2,054 TEU.
Linerlytica**, as carriers take advantage of the upcoming space shortage in January, rates on the Asia-North Europe route will exceed $2,000 TEU this week.
Transpacific rates have also been impacted by the Red Sea turmoil and expected capacity shortages in January, especially in the East of the United States, which was affected by the Panama Canal restrictions and the diversion of the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope.
As a result, the freight rate from Asia to the East Coast of the United States has increased by 6% to $2,982 FEU.
In contrast, freight rates to the West Coast of the United States increased by only 2% to $1,855 FEU. "In contrast, the increase in rates to the West Coast has not been as large as that as capacity remains open on all lanes and existing capacity has not been affected by the diversion of the Suez Canal," Linerlytica explained. Although carriers may still shift some of their capacity to Europe due to space shortages. ”