The standard fertilizer price spread has narrowed, the pig price ** logical analysis, and the pig price warning on December 27!
Reading guide] December is coming to an end, and this month's pig price is presented"Rush down**"However, pork curing is good to make money, slaughtering enterprises have increased significantly, and at the same time, the number of pigs slaughtered has also increased significantly!Especially in the middle of the year, affected by the low temperature and cold wave, the southern pickled meat was fully slaughtered, the pig price was sharply **, and the price of foreign three-yuan pigs was 1356 kg to 1472 yuan kg, the average price of live pigs in some provinces and regions in East China rose to 1625 yuan kg, the regional price difference expanded, and the slaughter of large pigs in the northeast and northwest also appeared"Bursting"！"The trend of regional pig transportation has increased, and the fat pigs in the southern region have made matters worse, further dragging down the standard pig marketAround the winter solstice, pig prices fell and bottomed out again21 yuan kg!
At the same time, the domestic standard fertilizer price spread also gradually narrowed in December, and the standard fertilizer price spread increased from -06 yuan kg, narrowed to -0Above 3 yuan kg, the standard fertilizer price spread has weakened significantly, and the standard fertilizer price spread in southwest China has dropped from yuan kilogram to -07 yuan kg, in some parts of central and eastern China, there is an inversion of the standard fertilizer price difference, and the market demand for large fertilizers is gradually cooling, which also drags down the performance of standard pig prices. This also dragged down the performance of the standard pigs, so around the winter solstice, the trend of pig prices was weak, and the peak season was not prosperous!
However, as the end of the month approaches, pig prices"From falling to rising"In the short term, the market is becoming more bullish!On the one hand, consumer demand during the New Year's Day may improve significantly, the downstream market before the holiday or there is obvious stocking demand, slaughtering enterprise orders have increased, the operating rate will remain high, and market demand still has a certain increase;On the other hand, pig prices are sluggish, this month in the northern region of the pig slaughter speed accelerated, near the end of the month, the pressure on farmers to slaughter decreased, part of the ** pig price mentality has become stronger, pig group companies have a certain rather shrink operation, which also supports the performance of pig prices!operation, which also supports the performance of pig prices!
According to the analysis of the institution, on December 27, the average price of lean pigs at home and abroad was 3 yuan, and the average price of pigs in slaughterhouses was 008 yuan, the slaughterhouse pig settlement price remained at 1429 yuan kg, the domestic market shows a strong trend, most of the major provinces and regions of the pig *** 005～0.3 yuan kg, of which, the province of Northeast and North China hovered at 136～14.5 yuan, the average price of pork market in North China is generally ** to 14 145 yuan kg. And in the southern market, the southwest market *** to 137~14.4 yuan, East China market *** to 144~15.8 yuan, 14 in the central China market3~14.8 yuan, South China market ** is 139~14.2 yuan kg!
At present, pig prices are showing a strong fluctuation trend, but rationally, pig prices have rebounded at a low level this month, and the range is only 065 yuan kg, and the region is generally concentrated in East China, Central China market, which also means that the root cause of pig price support is limited, and the rationality of pig prices is that after the end of October, Shandong, Henan and surrounding provinces and regions of pig farms appeared epidemic phenomenon, accelerating the production capacity of standard pigs and large and medium-sized pig farms!The performance degraded, and in the peak season of pickling, the local pig source was in short supply, and the large factories pulled up the most, which also supported the performance of pig prices to rebound that month!
For the prospect of pig prices, rationally, this round of pig price recovery or"Failed halfway through"！On the one hand, the pig price does not have a sustainable and effective performance, the staged pressure of the pig still exists, the big pig is weak, and the standard pig lacks a significant recovery performanceOn the other hand, the salting in the southwest is gradually ending, and the slaughterhouse operating rate will also be"Boom and bust", downstream demand can not keep up or gradually weaken, and the domestic frozen pork delivery rate is 24. 73%, superimposed on the recent increase in the number of large pigs slaughtered, and the number of white pigs slaughtered after slaughter increased by 2473%, superimposed on the recent increase in the number of large pigs slaughtered, the average weight of white pigs after slaughter increased, and the pork ** capacity was significantly enhanced!
Therefore, in the short term, under the long and short game, the market will still be attracted at a low level, under the creation of terminal sentiment fluctuations, pig prices or will continue the trend of high-frequency oscillation, the center of gravity or will be slightly raised, mid-to-late January, with the arrival of the New Year, the downstream centralized stocking or will be greatly strengthened, pig prices are short-lived or expected, but I personally think that pig prices will not have a comprehensive presentation before the Spring Festival!"Break 8"The trend of pig prices will still be at"7 Yuan Era"！
Bottom-up!Standard fat spreads down, pig prices**, December"Losses"27 Pig Price!What do you think about this?The above is the author's personal opinion, ** on the Internet, the content is for reference only!