Hello everyone, I am learning from history. Recently, the issue of Chinese population has once again become a hot topic in society, and experts, scholars and opinion leaders have expressed their views on it. Some people have expressed concern that China's population growth is negative for the first time in 61 years, and that the Chinese population dividend is disappearing. On the other hand, some experts believe that this is a manifestation of China's economic development, and due to the huge population base and the impact of the one-child policy, we have time to adjust the policy without excessive concern.
Although I am not a demographer, I can find some inspiration from the historical changes in the population of Japan next door. The evolution of Japan's population can be roughly divided into the following stages.
1. The rise and fall before and after the war.
After the Meiji Restoration, Japan began to rise from a semi-colony to a great power, and thanks to the plundering of its neighbors, Japan maintained a high level of development and continued to grow its population. From 1920 to 1935, Japan's population aged 0-14 years increased from 2041620,000 to 2,554520,000. Although the losses caused by the war existed, due to the early end of the war, Japan ushered in a small peak of fertility.
Second, the early seventies and eighties showed an aging population.
In 1955, the population of Japan aged 0-14 reached 2,979820,000, the number of elderly people is only 474730,000, accounting for 532%。By 1970, the population aged 0-14 had dropped to 2,482350,000, the number of old people increased to 733100,000, the proportion of the elderly population exceeded 7% for the first time, entering an aging society. In 1973, Japan had the largest number of births since the end of World War II, but the number of newborns has been declining year by year since then.
3. The aging crisis after the 80s.
After the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985, Japan's economy collapsed, and the problem of declining birthrate and aging population exploded sharply. The proportion of the elderly population is from 1011% rose to 28% in 2019. The number of newborns in 2021 hit a record low, and the number of marriage registrations fell to the lowest since World War II. Experts**, by 2050, the proportion of Japan's elderly population will reach 40%, becoming a super aging country.
China can learn from Japan's experience, but it needs to be cautious. Due to the differences in the basic national conditions of the two countries, China should separate the chaff from the chaff and extract the essence from the dross when referring to Japan's population policy, and should not blindly copy it.
Future Adaptation: A Unique Response to Chinese Population Challenges.
In the face of demographic challenges, China can adopt a range of strategies, including but not limited to:
Education upgrading: Learn from the successful experience of the one-child policy, increase investment in high-quality education for one-child children, and cultivate more high-quality talents.
Giving full play to the potential of the elderly workforce: Give full play to the role of the elderly in the social economy by delaying retirement and improving the quality of the elderly workforce.
Innovative population policy: Adjust the population policy in a timely manner in light of national conditions, encourage childbirth, and ensure the balanced development of the population structure.
Improve social security: establish a sound social security system to improve the quality of life of the elderly and reduce the pressure on the elderly.
Scientific and technological innovation and application: use scientific and technological means to improve labor productivity, promote economic development, and provide scientific and technological support for population problems.
Cultural inheritance and promotion: through the inheritance of the excellent traditional Chinese culture, promote the concept of family, cultivate a sense of family responsibility, and promote a good concept of childbirth.
China has a wealth of historical experience to learn from in the face of the population problem, but it needs to flexibly adjust according to its national conditions, formulate a scientific and effective population policy, and ensure a reasonable balance in the population structure. Through a comprehensive approach, China is expected to address the demographic problem and usher in more sustainable social development in the future.
The population issue is an important issue that has a direct bearing on the future development of the country and social stability. The above article details the Chinese population problem and proposes a series of coping strategies by drawing on the historical changes of Japan next door. I think this article provides a useful reference for a deeper understanding of population issues and how to deal with them.
First of all, through historical analysis, the article vividly shows the evolution process of Japan's population, so that readers can more intuitively feel the complexity of the population issue and the historical trajectory of evolution. In particular, the periodical analysis of the aging problem before and after the war, the seventies and eighties, and the post-eighties provides readers with an in-depth perspective on demographic changes.
Second, when drawing on Japan's experience, the article emphasizes the need to adapt measures to local conditions and learn from them cautiously. This rational attitude is very important. Different countries have unique cultural, economic and social backgrounds, and the experience of other countries cannot be blindly applied. In dealing with the population problem, China must fully consider its own national conditions, adjust its policies in light of the actual situation, and ensure that the measures formulated are feasible.
The future adaptation strategies mentioned in the article are also quite forward-looking. Comprehensive measures such as education upgrading, unleashing the potential of the elderly labor force, and innovating population policies have provided China with diversified paths in the process of coping with the population problem. In particular, the application of scientific and technological innovation will have a positive impact on improving labor productivity and promoting economic development, which is a very forward-looking view.
Finally, the article concludes by emphasizing the need for flexibility in China's population problem. This reflects a pragmatic attitude, not only to learn from the merits, but also to sum up experience in practice, constantly optimize policies, and create better conditions for the country's sustainable development.
Overall, this article does an excellent job of providing an in-depth analysis of population issues, summarizing historical lessons, and suggesting future strategies to deal with them. It provides us with a wealth of information and perspectives on population issues, and we hope that in future practice, we can effectively address population challenges and achieve sustainable prosperity for the country.
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