For the first time in many years!The prices of second hand housing in 70 cities did not rise month o

Mondo Social Updated on 2024-01-29

It has always been the vane of the property market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, and in November, there was a phenomenon of second-hand housing prices in unison.

On December 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the statistical data on the change in commercial residential sales** in November. According to the data, in November, second-hand residential sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month. 0% and 15%;In terms of first-hand residential sales, except for Shanghai, the month-on-month increase was 0In addition to 6%, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month. 9% and 08%。

In November, the scale of commercial residential transactions in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased, and the sales continued to decline month-on-month, rising and falling year-on-year.

First-hand residential sales in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen** all declined

From a month-on-month perspective, in November, the sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 03%, the same decline as the previous month, of which Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month. 9% and 08%, Shanghai month-on-month **06%。Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities** decreased by 03%, a decrease of 01 percentage point. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities** decreased by 04%, a decrease of 0 from the previous month1 percentage point.

From a year-on-year perspective, in November, the sales of new commercial residential buildings in first-tier cities were 0 year-on-year3%, down 01 percentage point, of which, Beijing and Shanghai respectively **19% and 47%, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell 2 year-on-year respectively4% and 31%。Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in second-tier cities **year-on-year**02%, down 01 percentage point. Sales of newly built commercial residential buildings in third-tier cities** decreased by 1% year-on-year6%, a decrease of 01 percentage point.

Second-hand residential sales in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen** have all declined

In terms of second-hand housing, from a month-on-month perspective, in November, second-hand residential sales in first-tier cities fell by 1 month-on-month4%, a decrease of 06 percentage points, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen fell month-on-month. 0% and 15%。Second-hand residential sales** in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 07% and 08%, an average increase of 02 percentage points.

From a year-on-year perspective, in November, second-hand residential sales in first-tier cities fell by 2% year-on-year9%, a decrease of 1 from the previous month0 percentage points, of which Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased year-on-year respectively. 3% and 25%。Second-hand residential sales** in second- and third-tier cities decreased by 3 year-on-year6% and 39%, an average increase of 03 percentage points.

Industry perspectives

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate:The real estate market is likely to stabilize gradually by the first half of 2024

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, believes that with the release of some improvement demand in the first-tier cities in early September, the market has led to a blowout of low-end second-hand houses, which has significantly affected the overall market heat. Since October, housing prices in first-tier cities have seen an overall decline, especially second-hand housing, which has been comprehensively reduced for two consecutive months.

Among the 70 major cities, there were 59 cities with a downward adjustment in new residential housing prices and 69 cities with second-hand housing prices, with a cumulative total of more than 91% of urban housing prices falling in November, creating a record in recent years. Moreover, it is also the first time in many years that there is no second-hand housing in the city.

Zhang Dawei believes that the reason why the market housing prices continued to bottom out in November is mainly due to the lack of confidence of home buyers, and the fact that some real estate companies were involved in risks again from October to November, which reduced the willingness of home buyers to buy houses, and data such as population and marriage also affected the market's judgment on the market outlook.

However, with the positive tone of the real estate policy at the Politburo meeting, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and other ministries and commissions have released signals, and at the end of the month, first-tier cities such as Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai have also expressed their positions, and the follow-up core is expected.

The policies introduced in the long-term overheating stage of first- and second-tier cities are expected to be gradually optimized, and the real estate market will usher in the policy bottom.

Zhang Dawei believes that Beijing and Shanghai are expected to gradually stabilize the market by the end of the year, and the market is likely to have a small spring in the first quarter of 2024, but other cities are likely to continue to maintain adjustments, and the market is still in the process of gradually bottoming out. Overall, the real estate market is likely to stabilize gradually by the first half of 2024.

58 Zhang Bo, President of Anjuke Research Institute:The market has been hovering at the bottom for a relatively long time in this round of correction

Zhang Bo, president of 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out that according to the data released by the Bureau of Statistics, the real estate market as a whole is still in the consolidation stage, and the number of first- and second-hand housing prices is still declining.

First of all, the "price for volume" in the hot first and second-tier cities is obvious, once the transaction volume continues, it means that the bottom has been built, and the next step is relatively limited room for house prices. Secondly, the market sentiment is still at the bottom, because the current proportion of housing prices in the country's ** cities is still high, especially.

The performance of second- and third-tier cities is more obvious, and the confidence of the demand side in the market is still insufficient, which also leads to a relatively long time for this round of adjustment to linger at the bottom.

Zhang Bo believes that the next step of the market boost also needs to start from two aspects, on the one hand, in the demand side of the pull, especially the demand side of the first-tier cities recovery is the focus, December 14 Beijing and Shanghai policies are expected to play a positive role, the recovery of first-tier cities will effectively drive more hot spots next year.

Second- and third-tier cities are recovering. On the other hand, it is also worth paying attention to promoting the clearing of supply-side risks and improving the overall financing environment of real estate enterprises, especially the financing of private real estate enterprises will continue to increase and alleviate the tight liquidity situation of enterprises.

Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute:Implement the exchange of price for quantity

The upward momentum of the real estate market continues to strengthen

According to Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, the number of cities with the highest housing prices continued to decrease in November, from 11 in October to 9. The emergence of housing prices shows that various localities take the initiative to make profits, which is conducive to the reduction of housing costs, and also reflects the implementation of the strategy of exchanging price for volume. In cities such as Chengdu and Changsha, there are some land plots with a premium rate of more than 20%, and the number has increased significantly, indicating that the upward momentum of the real estate market is continuing to increase.

Yan Yuejin said that the data in November has shown that the foundation for the recovery of the housing price index still needs to be consolidated, and at the same time, it is necessary to take advantage of the situation and do a good job in the year-end sales under the new market conditions. Some first-class adjustments in various places should take the initiative to make good use of the strategy of exchanging price for volume to boost sales performance.

In addition, Yan Yuejin believes that the current policy on second-hand housing is actually on the small side, and the focus is too much on the level of "buying". The various housing purchase policies themselves also cover second-hand housing, but it is easier to understand that it is a new housing policy in various places. As for the predicament of the market, we can't stay at the level of "buying", the main problem now is that "there are more people who want to sell", and some people do want to change houses after selling. The breaking of this blockage should become a key focus of all localities at present, so as to improve the accuracy of policies.

Written by: Qiu Yongfen, reporter of Nandu Bay Finance Agency.

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