Go strong!Bifocal soda ash continues**.
At the end of the article, a list of today's ** main contract margin and handling fees is attached (December 14, 2023daily update).
Lithium carbonate
With the resurgence of the disk and the resurgence of speculation, the volatility of lithium carbonate has increased, and the range of the price limit has been slightly insufficient, which is easy to cause extreme ** caused by liquidity exhaustion. At present, the capital game has intensified, but the exchange has announced a number of risk control measures, and it is recommended to be cautious.
Shanghai silver, Shanghai gold
The Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision continued to pause interest rate hikes and said that interest rates could be cut next year, Powell's tone changed significantly, and he remained optimistic about interest rate cuts, and the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields fell, ** sharply higher. The Federal Reserve has been on hold since raising interest rates at the end of July this year, and the wording of this interest rate decision is clearly dovish. The dot plot points to three rate cuts next year, with the median policy rate forecast for 2024 at 46%, implying a 75 basis point rate cut next year, slightly more than expected.
In terms of guidance on inflation and other economic data, economic expectations for December also showed a downward revision to GDP growth next year, unemployment to remain unchanged, and inflation growth to a downward revision. Powell said that interest rate cuts have begun to come into view, and policymakers are thinking and discussing when to cut interest rates, and future rate cuts have inevitably become a theme.
On the whole, the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has ended, but there are still some differences on when the Fed will cut interest rates and the magnitude of interest rate cuts, which will also become a game point in the future market, which may change with macroeconomic performance and statements. The short-term market is boosted by the optimistic expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, **or** strong operation, but because there are still some differences in when the Fed will cut interest rates and the magnitude of interest rate cuts, there may be a phased adjustment.
lpg
At present, the demand for civil liquefied gas has entered the peak season, first of all, the temperature drops, driving the demand for combustion group heating. According to the weather warning issued by the Meteorological Bureau on December 8, a new round of cold air will affect the northern region in the coming week, and there will be a large range of rain and snow in the central and eastern regions. In North China, South China and other places, 6 8 cooling, and some areas can reach more than 10 drops.
On the other hand, New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching, catering consumption is expected to increase, and spot merchants are stocking up in advance. Chemical demand has been flat recently, weaker than in previous years. This week, the capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil export plants in the country was 3850%；The operating rate of MTBE plants in China is 6793%；The operating rate of propane dehydrogenation (PDH) units in China is 6238%。
*In terms of domestic liquefied gas commodities this week, the volume of domestic liquefied gas commodities was 53About 690,000 tons. In terms of imported gas, due to the blockage of the Panama Canal and other factors, the terminal arrival rate is low. As of Dec. 7, China's liquefied gas port sample inventory was 238220,000 tons, a decrease of 6 from the previous period89%, port inventories have fallen for four consecutive weeks and are now the lowest since May.
On the whole, the fundamentals of LPG are gradually improving, and the early stage is mainly dragged down by the ** decline, we believe that with the cold wave hit, the inventory is low, and the recovery of catering consumption is expected, the trend of LPG will be stronger than **, and it is a multi-match in the energy variety.
Shanghai aluminum
The Fed's interest rate meeting was dovish, the overseas macro atmosphere warmed, and the domestic aluminum ingot social treasury continued to deplete rapidly this week, returning to the low level of the year.
The short-term changes in the fundamentals are limited, and in terms of Yunnan's production reduction, some new production capacity has been put into operation in Inner Mongolia.
On the demand side, the traditional off-season and weak consumption in the downstream are still weak. In terms of inventory, according to SMM data, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 48 on December 1430,000 tons, a decrease of 7 from last Thursday70,000 tons, the removal of aluminum ingot social warehouses accelerated, hitting a new low in the year.
On the whole, the domestic social treasury continued to go to the low level of the year again to provide support, driven by the warming macro sentiment, Shanghai Aluminum stopped falling, short-term or ** repair, but weak demand still brings fundamental pressure.
Coking coal Coke
The Federal Reserve's December interest rate meeting was dovish, the dot plot hinted at three interest rate cuts next year, Powell's tone changed greatly, and he remained optimistic about interest rate cuts, and the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields fell.
However, the ** economic work conference, which has been highly anticipated by the market, ended yesterday, and the tone was basically the same as the Politburo meeting, which was slightly less than previously expected, and the market may reassess the future economy and policy expectations. Macro expectations have entered a vacuum period, steel demand is in the seasonal off-season, and it is expected to gradually turn to the reality of weak fundamentals.
Soda ash
From a fundamental point of view, there is little change, the supply side is expected to start normal production of the third line of Yuanxing in the second half of this month, and the fourth line may be difficult to put into production within the year, combined with rumors, the supply side may not have a significant increase before the end of the year;On the demand side, downstream glass factories replenish the warehouse normally, and the inventory level has returned to normal, and the intensity of the centralized replenishment caused by the subsequent supply disturbance will be weakened.
On the disk, the 05 contract is priced in the capacity loss caused by environmental protection and the expectation of good demand in the downstream peak season. If the rumors are cashed out, the disk may continue to rise, and it is not recommended to chase the short too much in the short term, and look at the high **.
Urea
From a fundamental point of view, the decline in output and the decline in demand coexist, and both supply and demand are weak. On the supply side, after entering the winter, from the end of November to December, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Sichuan, Xinjiang and other places have urea enterprise maintenance plans, and urea output will decline to a certain extent. If the shutdown of gas companies is delayed, Nissan's decline will slow down.
On the demand side, the participation of agricultural demand is low, the industrial demand is dominated by reserves, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has risen to a high level, and the follow-up will continue to operate steadily. There is no guidance on exports, and the policy calls for domestic protection.
Inventory is still accumulating, and the number of warehouse receipts is high, and the supply and price stability have also suppressed the supply. On the whole, affected by the guaranteed supply and stable price, urea ** is operating under pressure.
pta
In terms of cost, the operating rate of the current refinery has rebounded steadily, and the gasoline and diesel cracking spread has shown signs of stabilization.
On the supply and demand side, the PX capacity utilization rate rebounded to 8563%, located in a higher position, with a weekly output of about 71810,000 tons (+4.)68%) (the data for the week of the 14th is not out), the demand side PTA operating rate has increased significantly to about 82%, with a weekly output of 1.35 million tons (+7%), Yisheng Hainan 2 new production capacity in December continues to be launched, the downstream polyester operating rate is still maintained at a seasonal high, PX supply and demand in December are still loose, PTA ** rebounded sharply, PX and PTA are in the accumulation cycle, PX valuation is lower than PTA, and it is expected to run weakly.
Today's Margin Fees at a Glance: