In the "besieged city" of the auto aftermarket, some people are fleeing, and some people are coming in. Those who persist are "boiling", and shuffling is the result of not being able to survive.
Author丨auspicious.
Submission**WeChat: 18001896570
*Please specify**: AC Car (ID: ACQICHE).
Mom-and-pop shops in China's auto aftermarket have always been regarded as the "capillaries" of the industry, meeting the daily needs of tens of millions of surrounding car owners and contributing more than 30% of the industry's output value.
However, even if most people still believe that "mom-and-pop shops can't be beaten", as a grain of sand in this huge industry, it is indeed quietly undergoing a profound reshuffle.
Just like the catering industry, another pillar industry in my country, it seems to be lively, but the knockout competition under the water is also "in full swing". According to statistics, in the first half of 2023, the cumulative number of new registrations of restaurants will exceed 2 million. However, the competition is fierce, and many new stores have an average survival time of no more than 3 months.
The rise and fall of small and medium-sized stores in the catering industry is actually a microcosm of the survival dilemma of the mom-and-pop model.
The beginning of the year is the peak time to open a store. However, a series of challenges such as expenses and poor business have caused many mom-and-pop shops to fall into the quagmire of operation. In particular, the pressure on rents and other burdens has become heavier, and the financial crisis has become more and more prominent, and finally it has to be sold to a situation.
On the other hand, in the automotive aftermarket, the tide of transfer is not obvious. Although this year's business is not as good as last year's number of repair shops, according to relevant statistics,In the first three quarters of 2023, the number of transferred stores decreased year-on-year compared to 2022.
Why is this contrast occurring?
The personnel of the 4S shop and the comprehensive repair plant became the main force to take over
The reason for this is that, on the one hand, after the opening up at the beginning of this year, there is indeed a wave of people who feel that there is hope for business again, and they have taken advantage of the tide of opening up to bring some confidence to the operators.
On the other hand, let's look at the other two major players in the aftermarket - 4S shops and repair shops.
In 2023, it seems that everyone is lamenting the recession of the industry and all kinds of "It's too difficult!".The aftermarket is certainly no exception.
Let's take a look at the 4S store first.
As the "mainstay" of the automotive after-sales field backed by major OEMs, the 4S system has undoubtedly made great contributions to China's automobile industry.
These glorious pasts are not repeated for the time being, but in the current situation, they are not optimistic.
Taking top dealers as an example, from 2020 to 2023, the revenue and market value of China's top dealers have shrunk by nearly 60% in two years.
The head dealers are still like this, and the life of small and medium-sized dealers in the region may be even more difficult.
4S stores are shrinking, and what should those who have been "optimized" do?
The 4S personnel of luxury cars have always seemed to have a "moist" life, but the data shows that at the end of 2022, 40% of the after-sales personnel of 4S stores will be lost, and more than 35% of them will eventually end up starting a business.
AC car columnist Che Nei Han Che once wrote an article "More than 5,500 companies have withdrawn from the network, what should hundreds of thousands of "4S people" do?mentioned that these 4S people are actually confused, and rarely leave the industry unless they are close to retirement. After all, life experiences and connections are in this industry.
In other words, it is too difficult for people who come out of a 4S store to change careers. These people either go to other 4S stores to continue to work of the same nature, but in most cases they will face demotion or salary reduction;Or start a business in the aftermarket.
Let's take a look at the situation of the comprehensive repair plant.
The situation of the 4S shop is not good due to the weakness of the main engine factory and the independent after-sales dismantling of the after-sales business by the head, and the situation of the comprehensive repair plant is not so good.
In the first half of 2023, although the cumulative output value of repair shops increased by 13% year-on-year, it only increased by 5% compared with the same period in 2021The cumulative number of units increased by 9% year-on-year in 2022, but it has not yet recovered to the level of the same period in 2021.
AC Motor's survey also shows that 70% of repair shops believe that business will be more difficult this year than last year.
The number of incoming stations is not goodMany comprehensive repair factories choose to reduce their scale and manpowerOn the other hand, the business is not good, the salary is not high, and the comprehensive repair plant cannot retain people, and some technicians may choose to leave their jobs by themselves.
And those who leave or are cut, whether they are technical engineers, service consultants or front office, they actually go in two ways: leave the industry, or continue to stay in the aftermarket.
In addition to the front desk staff, it is difficult for service consultants and technicians, especially technical engineers, to develop across the bank due to their professional and technical limitationsBut also because of its professional and technical foundation, some big workers have the confidence to open their own stores.
Of course, there is no shortage of entrepreneurs or "outsiders" who enter across industries in any industry. The threshold of the automotive aftermarket is not low, and the technology and operation must at least account for the same;In the early stage of opening a store, understanding technology will undoubtedly have a greater impact on the professionalism of the store.
However, this threshold has to be said to be neither high nor high, with a little capital, it is also a good choice to consider joining a chain brand.
"Boiling" is the norm, and shuffling is a foregone conclusion
It is not difficult to open a store, but it is difficult to open a store.
In this era of diversified competition, small and medium-sized stores are not only facing competition from the industry, but also the "market squeeze" of the old rival 4S store, the main engine factory that continues to collect after-sales, and the auto service chain brand represented by Tiger Dog and Cat. In addition, there is also a diversified business model under the impact of the new **, and the impact of various marketing strategies and drainage activities.
In addition, the after-sales authorization of new energy vehicles is also a major problem, and most mom-and-pop shops are difficult to meet the conditions for authorization, resulting in always "missing a leg" in the competition. This effect may not be significant in the short term, but in the long run, the disadvantages of mom-and-pop shops will gradually become apparent.
In the "besieged city" of the auto aftermarket, some people are fleeing, and some people are coming in. Those who persist are "boiling", and shuffling is the result of not being able to survive.
Small and medium-sized stores such as mom-and-pop shops will face a high frequency of changing hands and an overall decline.
Some industry insiders speculate that in the next five years, the existing nearly 900,000 auto repair companies will drop to 400,000 450,000. The biggest thing about the strong rise of new energy vehicles is the reduction of traditional auto repair shops and the demise of mom-and-pop shops.
And these two form a "inheritance relationship" to a certain extentMom-and-pop shops changed hands, and people from 4S or comprehensive repair factories came out to open shops and take over, barely maintaining the "balance" of the aftermarket
At the beginning of the year, entrepreneurs often have the mentality of "doing a career", choose a favorite store, and take over.
Judging from the data, more than 7,000 stores were transferred in the first half of the year;However, there are also data showing that in the first half of the year there were 190,000 new stores entered.
However, just like the catering industry "comes vigorously and goes bustlingly", such a situation is not uncommon in the aftermarket.
At the beginning of the year, I paid half a year's rent, and I thought that with the liberalization of the policy, the mileage would increase and the business would pick up. However, after experiencing the cruel facts, I found that the business was not as good as I thought, so the sense of disparity began to appear;Grit your teeth and persist in persevering, and at the end of the year, it may still be difficult to improve......
There are a lot of transfers, and there are a lot of takeovers, plus some new stores. On the whole, this year seems to have been difficult, but there have been no widespread closures.
In the blink of an eye, 2023 has come to an end, most people are "boiling", and the next thing may be the highlight, and the number of "changing hands" from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of next year will either increase;Either the size of the entire small and medium-sized store will be reduced. In terms of proportion, the turnover rate is still so high, but due to the reduction in the scale of the industry, the overall number should not be so much.
Business is declining, barely making ends meet, how long can such a situation be "survived"?
The shuffle has just begun.
Write at the end
The automotive aftermarket is a circle, in the new year, OEMs, especially the new forces, will further tighten the after-sales service, and what kind of new pattern will the aftermarket usher in?How will this profound reshuffle shape the future of the industry?
Change is tough, and the winter of 2024 may be even longer. But it is also in this era of change that every peer needs to think more about how to gain a foothold in the fierce competition and gain a firm foothold in the "reshuffle".