Cars and robots, the heat continues.
Recently, following Huawei andChangan AutomobileAfter the establishment of an automotive intelligent systems and components company;withCialisThe M9, which was produced together, will be launched soon;withCheryThe second car of Zhijie is also expected to be launched in the second half of 2024, and the automotive industry chain may undergo earth-shaking changes.
In terms of robotics,FourierThe released general-purpose robot GR-1 was successfully mass-produced;Joy and deep openingThe first batch of open source Hongmeng robots in China developed by the partnership was successfully deliveredTeslaThe results of the Optimus walking test will also be released soon.
New energy vehicles and humanoid robots are both blue ocean tracks with great potential and space in the future.
What we are talking about today is a double-ring driveThe double leader of the new energy vehicle and robot industry chain, the market share of related products is the first in China in two subdivisions
So, what exactly does a double-ring drive do?
Shuanghuan Transmission is the leader of precision gears and reducers in China, and its products cover automobiles, construction machinery, livelihood gears and robots, including passenger cars, commercial vehicles and motorcycles.
among othersPassenger car gears are the main source of revenue, accounting for 49 percent in the first half of 202387%。If it is subdivided into high-power new energy vehicle gears, double-ring transmission is even moreAbsolute firstThe domestic market share is more than 70%.
Although the proportion of commercial vehicle gears, livelihood gears and reducers is not high, they are all products with significant advantages and rapid revenue growth.
Especially in terms of reducer, the reducer products of double ring transmission include RV reducer and harmonic reducer, which are among the domestic RV reducersThe market share ranks first
So, what is the performance of double-ring transmission?
Revenue has increased significantly after 2020;Net profit has increased from 0$5.1 billion increased to $5 in 20228.3 billion yuan,10-fold increase in 3 years
In the first three quarters of 2023, it continued to maintain the growth trend, achieving revenue of 587.2 billion yuan,A year-on-year increase of 2169%；Net profit attributable to the parent company 58.9 billion yuan,A year-on-year increase of 4394%, more than the whole year of 2022
The company did not disclose the segmented business revenue in the third quarter of 2023, but we can find from the operating situation in the first half of 2023:
Passenger car gear revenue increased by 13 percent year-on-year9%, of which most of the growth came from new energy vehicle gears;The growth of commercial vehicle gears is obviousA year-on-year increase of 786%, mainly driven by automatic transmissions (AMTs) for commercial vehicles.
The reducer also performs very wellThis represents a year-on-year increase of 663%；Minsheng Gear is due to the acquisition of Sanduole, and the consolidated income in 2022 will be 20.2 billion yuan, and in 2023, it will achieve revenue of 1 in only half a year5.4 billion yuan, which is expected to develop into a new growth curve for the company.
It is worth mentioning that the net profit growth rate in the first three quarters of 2023 is much higher than the revenue growth rate, making the net profit margin increase year by yearIncreased profitability, the reason is on the cost side.
Shuanghuan Transmission expanded production on a large scale in 2018, but sales could not keep up, resulting in unsaturated production capacity, and after 2022, the increase in sales of new energy vehicles led to the release of gear demandThe capacity utilization rate has been improved, and the scale effect has been highlighted, the expense rate is controlled.
So, what is the future of double-ring transmission?
From the previous analysis, we know that automotive gears and reducers are the company's core products, and they are also an important support for performance growth, so we mainly look at the growth of these two pieces.
First, the value of new energy vehicle gears is higher
The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles has continued to increase in the past two years, with 238% increased to 35 in June 202312%, driven by policies and scientific and technological progress, will continue to accelerate penetration in the coming years.
The difference between new energy vehicles and traditional fuel vehicles is mainly reflected in the battery, motor and electronic control, the motor speed of new energy vehicles (7000-10000r min) is significantly higher than that of fuel vehicles (3000-4000r min), so the gear is required to be more precise, wear-resistant, and low-noiseThe amount of value will naturally increase
Precision gears have high technical barriers, and China's gear manufacturers are mainly concentrated in the low-end marketIn 2022, only 15% of high-end manufacturers will be available
Double ring transmission is domesticMinorityIt can produce precision gears that have reached the world's leading level, and the scale is absolutely leading, new energy vehicle gearsCovering half of the market in China
In addition, the company has also established stable cooperative relations with many domestic and foreign car companiesBYD, GAC, Toyota, General Motors, Ford, etcAll of them are big customers of the company.
Accelerated penetration of automatic transmissions for commercial vehicles
An automatic mechanical transmission, also known as an AMT, is capable of changing gears automatically, compared to manual transmissionsMore fuel-efficient and smarterWith the improvement of consumers' requirements for environmental protection and performance, AMT will gradually become popular, and gears are an indispensable part of AMT.
At present, China's commercial vehicle automatic transmissionThe penetration rate is less than 20%.The next few years will be a period of rapid penetration of AMT, and it is expected that by 2025, China's heavy truck AMT will reach 50%.
The double-ring drive has beenIn-depth cooperation with ZFZF is the global leader in AMT, and the company is its first gear company in China, which is expected to fully benefit from AMT penetration dividends.
Domestic substitution of reducer
The reducer is in the cost of industrial robotsThe largest proportion (35%) of the partsThere are mainly RV reducers and harmonic reducers, which have different characteristics and are used in different parts of the robot.
China is the largest and fastest-growing market for industrial robots, and generally speaking, an industrial robot is needed3.5 harmonic reducers and 4 RV reducersTherefore, the market space of reducer in China is also broad.
However, due to the late start, it is mainly foreign manufacturers that dominateAlthough the double-ring transmission is the first in China (14%), compared to Nabtesk's 53%, the gap is still large.
In addition, the Flying Whale was interpreted beforeGreen harmonicsThe main thing is the harmonic reducer faucet.
However, the good news is that the C and E series RV reducer products of double ring transmission are close to the world's advanced levelBreak the foreign monopoly and stay far ahead of other manufacturers, harmonic reducer is also gradually mass-produced, recognition is improving, and the revenue of reducer has increased significantly.
In addition,Humanoid robotsIt is in the 0-1 breakthrough stage, and it is believed that large-scale commercialization will not be too far away, and Shuanghuan Transmission is expected to be the first to benefit by virtue of the leading edge of the reducer.
OverallShuanghuan Transmission is the double leader of domestic automotive gears and reducers, with strong performance and continuous enhancement of profitability, thus attracting 435 institutional positions including E Fund and China Universal (2023 interim report).
In the long run, new energy vehicle gears, commercial vehicle gears and reducers are all products in high demand, and the company's growth is still okay.