Recently, innovative drug companies have been particularly popular, and the results of innovative drugs have been announced one after another
Commercialization stage,Jingxin PharmaceuticalThe world's first innovative drug for insomnia was launchedBio-TheraA monoclonal antibody drug was approved for marketing in the United States;
Clinical trial stage,MabwellChina's first NECTIN-4 ADC initiated phase III clinical trialPoinsettiaThe global phase II clinical trial of the company's innovative drug for gout has made positive progress
There is also the licensing aspect,Baili TianhengThe Phase I bispecific antibody ADC drug was licensed to Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMS) with an initial payment of $800 million.
Although the stock prices of these companies have risen a lot before the news comes outBut if they still have potential from the perspective of performance releaseThat is to sayInnovative drugs are a direction that we should pay attention to
1. So, how to find potential innovative drug companies?
First of all, I mentioned R&D expenses.
R&D expenses are a particularly important point for pharmaceutical companies, except for those pharmaceutical companies that need to operate licenses and have confidential formulas, R&D expenses are not only the company's moat, but also an important reference for future potential expectations.
Back at the beginning of the year, the Flying Whale was rightA company that innovates in science and technologyStatistics were carried out, and based on the R&D expenses in 2021, a total of 21 companies were compiled.
Although their R&D expenses are uneven, companies with high R&D expenses and low valuations have indeed performed well in the past year, for exampleMabwell, Bio-Thera, Sunshine Guojian, Baili Tianheng, Allistetc., the average increase is more than doubled.
Statistics of innovative drug companies on the Science and Technology Innovation Board).
So let's talk about it nowR&D expenses in 2022In fact, it is mainly the companies in the picture aboveCan be addedValuation considerations: Taking Mabwell as a comparison standard, the "R&D expenses market value" is higher, or the "price-to-sales ratio (market value operating income)" is lower.
Up to now, the R&D expenses ratio of Mabwell in 2022 is 556%, while there are only 2 companies left above it:Shutai God, cutting-edge creatures
That isLeft column of the image belowThe R&D expenses of the three companies are all more than 200 million yuan, but the market value is not high.
In addition to that,Price-to-sales ratioIt is also a relative valuation method for innovative drug companies (PE can also be used if there is performance).The lower the price-to-sales ratio, the lower the valuation, which is the opposite of the R&D expense valuation method
Right column in the image aboveIt is to use the "price-to-sales ratio<25 "The selected companies (and with a market value of less than 10 billion), a total of 10, that is, their market value is low but their sales revenue is not low.
2. So, why was Luoxin Pharmaceutical (002793) selected?
I have to say that looking at R&D expenses and valuations alone is not enough for us to select companies that can be held for a long time, for innovative drug companiesPipeline analysisIt is also very important.
Luoxin Pharmaceutical's first innovative drug has been launched, positioning it in the field of digestion and has the potential of a large single product.
In April 2022, Luoxin PharmaceuticalThe first Class 1 innovative drug tegola raw tabletsListing,It is the first self-developed P-CAB product in China, which is a new generation of acid-suppressing drugsHowever, this drug will only be approved for one indication in 2022 "reflux esophagitis", and it will enter the medical insurance at the beginning of this year, so there is no explosion yet;
Until November 2023, Gora will be bornSecond indication"Duodenal ulcer" was approved for marketing, andThird indicationPhase III clinical trials have also been completed for "Helicobacter pylori infection".
Therefore,This drug is expected to still have good market potentialThe digestion market it faces is about 40 billion yuan, of which the annual sales of the first-generation acid suppression drug PPI (proton pump inhibitor) ilaprazole have exceeded 3.5 billion yuan (Livzon Group);
Compared with PPI drugs, P-CAB drugs have better advantages, and Tegola raw tablets are expected to rely on the leading edge of domestic production and obtain good sales.
Some brokerages are expected to doThe annual sales peak of Tigola raw tablets is expected to reach 2 billion to 3 billion yuan, but it will definitely need to be tracked continuously in the later stageIf the research and development of tegolasan injection goes smoothly, it will also help increase sales.
Having said that, when this drug was listed, Luoxin Pharmaceutical once hit the five boardsBut then the stock price was not supported enoughIt is not only related to drug expectations, but also related to the company's development in the last two years.
Luoxin Pharmaceutical's business income is mainly divided into two partsPharmaceutical manufacturing and pharmaceutical businessThe reason why the operating income is so high is because the generic drugs and the commercial scale are not small, so the company has been affected in recent yearsCentralized procurement, external environmental challenges, in addition to 2023Divestment of pharmaceutical commercial businessIt also had a big impact.
As of the third quarter of 2023, Luoxin Pharmaceutical's revenue has dropped to 182.7 billion yuan, of which the pharmaceutical business is expected to account for nearly 90%, but it is still a loss;
Therefore, turning losses into profits is Luoxin Pharmaceutical's expectation for a period of time in the future.
It is reported that in 2023, the company will participate in the eighth and ninth batchesCentralized procurementA total of four products are involved, three of which have a revenue of about 2-3 billion yuan before centralized procurement, and one product has just been listed, so it is expected that the current centralized procurement will not have a big impact on the enterprise;
In addition, back to R&D investmentIn addition to the aforementioned tegola raw tablets, the company has other new drug expectations, including pucanatide tablets, which are in phase III clinical trials, which are expected to becomeThe first in China**Guanylate cyclase agonists for chronic idiopathic constipation, as wellMany anti-tumor drugs in the later stageUnder research.
As of the semi-annual report of 2023, Luoxin Pharmaceutical R&D).
So to sum it up.
For Luoxin Pharmaceutical, it mainly accounts for a relatively low valuation (market capitalization of 6 billion yuan, price-to-sales ratio of 2.).5) At the same time, the logic of the expectation is expected to be reversed, the company's current gross profit margin has remained stable for three consecutive quarters, and the impact of centralized procurement is gradually subsiding, and there are new drugs including innovative drugs in the later stage, which is expected to turn losses into profits, and the performance in the fourth quarter of this year will be particularly critical.