Kunpeng Project. Monetary success requires a certain understanding of policy. The recent conclusion of the first economic work conference has set the focus for the country's economic work next year. The meeting was very informative, and I have compiled six key points that are most relevant to ordinary people. These key points have important reference value for next year's planning. Let's take a look at these key points!
This year's meeting set the tone for the important direction of the country's economic development, which has changed compared with two years ago. The meeting two years ago identified three major pressures on the country's economic development, including shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations. Last year's meeting continued to emphasize these three pressures. But this year's narrative is different. The problem of supply shocks has abated, mainly because the global supply chain tension has eased. After the end of the epidemic, the industrial chain has gradually returned to normal operation, and the problem of supply shocks has basically disappeared. Shrinking demand and weakening expectations remain. The contraction of demand is seen from two aspects, on the one hand, the contraction of domestic demand, which has been widely mentioned in recent years"Consumption downgrade"That's what it is. On the other hand, there is the contraction of external demand, and the changes in the international situation have led some companies to shift their operations to countries such as India and Vietnam. With this expectation weakening, the focus of economic work next year will be on boosting demand and stabilizing expectations.
Expansion: Contraction in demand has an important impact on the development of the economy. The contraction of domestic demand could lead to a contraction of the market and a decline in business sales, which in turn affected employment and economic growth. The contraction of external demand may lead to a decline in exports, international restrictions, and the balance of external demand will also face challenges. Stabilizing demand and expectations is the key task of next year's economic work. ** A series of measures need to be taken, including increasing consumption stimulus policies, raising people's income levels, and strengthening opening up to the outside world, to promote the growth of demand, stabilize market expectations, and create a good environment for economic recovery.
It is often said that investment, consumption and exports are the troika of economic growth. However, in the current context, investment-driven contributions may need to be reconsidered. In the past, due to the characteristics of the demographic structure, the development of industries such as real estate and Internet e-commerce has been supported. However, now that the population has entered a period of negative growth, the shortage of new births may become a long-term problem. According to the latest data, the average age of China's labor force is over 40 years old. The way in which the previous investments were made may not be sustainable in the current environment, as previous investments were self-absorbed in the face of high demand, such as the construction of subways and parks in many cities. But in the future, these circumstances may change. In order to meet this challenge, the conference proposed a dual grip of counter-cyclical adjustment and cross-cyclical adjustment. Counter-cyclical adjustment refers to the adoption of stimulus policies when the economy is in a downturn, but cross-cyclical adjustment requires that the policy intensity be appropriate and not excessively stimulative policies. This means that a stimulus policy similar to the 4 trillion yuan in 2008 is unlikely to appear at the current stage.
Expansion: Investment is one of the important engines of economic growth and plays a vital role in the development of the economy. However, in today's changing demographics and the complex and volatile global economic situation, the challenge of investment is becoming increasingly severe. The main challenges to face in the new investment adjustment include: demographic changes leading to a decline in consumer demand and limited market potential;The tension of the global ** chain has been alleviated, and the problem of supply shocks has weakenedChanges in the international situation have led to a contraction in international demand;The investment-driven approach may need to be adjusted, as the previous investment model may not be reproducible.
An important change in the meeting is that the phenomenon of speculation in the real estate market is no longer emphasized, but the promotion of the steady development of the real estate market and the acceleration of the construction of affordable housing are emphasized. This means that the real estate market will face some important changes in the future. Commercial real estate will become a common commodity, consumers can choose to buy, good houses **may**, and bad houses may fall in price. At the same time, policy-based affordable housing will also enter the market to meet the basic housing needs of ordinary people.
Expansion: The real estate industry is one of the important pillars of China's economy, and it plays an important role in promoting economic growth, stimulating related industries and employment. However, in the past few years, there have been bubbles and speculation in the real estate market, which has brought certain risks to economic stability and social development. Therefore, it was decided to change the orientation of real estate policy, emphasizing the steady development of the real estate market and increasing the construction of affordable housing to reduce market volatility and ensure the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate market.
The meeting proposed to incorporate non-economic policies into the evaluation of macroeconomic control, which means that more attention will be paid to the negative impact of non-economic policies on economic development and efforts will be made to control these negative impacts. Non-economic policies include policies on environmental protection and social welfare. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to rationally plan and guide urban development and avoid "blind competition" and "conflict and imbalance". At the same time, it is necessary to pay attention to resolving social contradictions and problems, strengthening the construction of the social security system, and improving the level of people's livelihood security.
Expansion: Macroeconomic regulation and control refers to the regulation and control of the economy as a whole through national policy means. Traditionally, macroeconomic control has focused on economic indicators such as economic growth, inflation and employment. However, in recent years, with the changes in the social environment and the increase in people's demand for public services, the role of non-economic policies has become increasingly prominent. Therefore, the inclusion of non-economic policies in the evaluation of macroeconomic regulation and control will help to understand and solve social problems more comprehensively and achieve coordinated economic and social development.
The meeting once again stressed the importance of environmental protection work, especially the need to continue to fight the tough battle of pollution prevention and control. The meeting pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the people-centered development philosophy, further promote the governance of air, water quality, soil and ecological environment, and increase the intensity of urban construction and rural environmental improvement. It is necessary to promote green development, improve the efficiency of resource utilization, and accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation through innovative technological means and management methods.
Expansion: Environmental protection is one of the common challenges facing humanity and the foundation of sustainable economic development. In the past few years, China has made remarkable achievements in environmental protection, but it still faces some difficulties and challenges. The meeting emphasized the importance of continuing to fight the tough battle of pollution prevention and control, which means that we will continue to increase support for environmental protection, strengthen environmental governance and supervision, promote green development, and achieve a win-win situation for the economy and the environment.
The meeting once again emphasized the importance of innovation-driven and scientific and technological innovation, and clearly pointed out that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a modern economic system with innovation as the core. The meeting also put forward a series of specific measures, including increasing investment in scientific and technological innovation, strengthening talent training, strengthening intellectual property protection and reforming the scientific research evaluation system.
Expansion: Innovation-driven and technological innovation are important forces to promote economic development. In recent years, China has made a series of important achievements in scientific and technological innovation, such as the commercialization of 5G technology and the breakthrough of aerospace science and technology. The meeting emphasized the importance of further strengthening innovation-driven and scientific and technological innovation, which indicates that the company will continue to increase support for innovation, strengthen the cultivation and development of innovative enterprises, promote the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, and promote the high-quality and sustainable development of economic development.
The above is my summary and analysis of the content of the ** Economic Work Conference. These key points have important reference value for next year's economic work and policy formulation. Hope this information is helpful to you!