Recently, the RMB exchange rate has seen a sudden sharp **, falling as much as 600 points this week, which has aroused widespread suspicion and concern in the market. The decline seems to hint at a possible reversal of the yuan's trend. However, we need to conduct an in-depth analysis of this phenomenon in order to better understand the dynamics of the exchange rate market.
Think about it, why did the renminbi suddenly appear sharply?We can interpret it in many ways. First of all, the RMB exchange rate has been gradually slowing down for three consecutive weeks**, which may indicate that the momentum of the RMB** is waning. Secondly, at the beginning of this Monday, the RMB exchange rate began to **, but at 16:15 on Thursday afternoon, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar appeared again 176 points**. This shows the volatility and uncertainty in the exchange rate market.
Another factor that may affect the RMB exchange rate is the Federal Reserve's upcoming annual interest rate meeting. The Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates again, but people are still cautious about the outcome of the meeting and have expressed concerns about future interest rate expectations. Therefore, instability in the exchange rate market will be inevitable until the end of the Fed meeting.
In addition to the RMB exchange rate**, we also need to focus on another question: is de-dollarization failing?According to the latest data released by SWIFT, the share of US dollar payments has increased significantly over the past six months, which seems to run counter to the trend of de-dollarization in countries around the world. However, we need to dig deeper into this data to avoid jumping to conclusions.
First, let's take a look at the changes in the offshore exchange rate of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan. According to the data, the lowest point of the RMB exchange rate this week was 71764, up from 7 at the end of last week1239 has **. This shows that the short-term fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate does not represent the failure of de-dollarization, but may only be part of the market adjustment. In addition, in terms of the share of global currency payments, the increase in the share of US dollar payments was mainly due to the decline in the share of euro payments, rather than the reversal of the overall de-dollarization trend.
In addition, we cannot ignore the popularity of other payment systems around the world. More and more countries are adopting local currency settlements bilaterally**, and the use of other payment systems is expanding. Therefore, SWIFT only counts a part of the currency payment, which does not fully reflect the actual situation. In addition, China's CIPS payment system has gradually increased its coverage, and many of these payments do not go through the SWIFT system and are therefore not included in the statistics.
Overall, despite a slight decline in the share of RMB payments, China is actively promoting the adoption of the digital yuan and expanding international payment scenarios. With the expansion of CIPS coverage and the promotion of the digital yuan, the use of the yuan in the international environment will continue to increase. Therefore, we do not need to worry too much about the failure of de-dollarization, and believe that the RMB will continue to maintain a trend** in the future.
The fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is often closely related to economic development. At present, China's economy is in a period of transition, in which factors such as ** and investment are changing the main drivers of economic development.
In the past, China's economy was largely dependent on investment and investment, especially infrastructure and real estate investment. However, with the weakening of foreign demand, China's export growth has been limited, resulting in a gradual weakening of the contribution of ** to economic development. At the same time, China is actively adjusting its economic structure and increasing the development of domestic demand.
China's recently released Caixin PMI data showed that both the manufacturing and services PMI indices exceeded 50 and entered expansion territory. This shows that China's economy is gradually improving. However, we must be aware that we are currently in a critical period of economic dynamics, and economic fluctuations and exchange rate fluctuations are inevitable.
In general, the fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is caused by a combination of factors. Neither a potential exchange rate reversal nor a de-dollarization process should be judged on the basis of momentary fluctuations.
The trend of the RMB exchange rate is affected by many factors such as market supply and demand, economic development, changes in the international situation and policy factors. As far as China is concerned, economic restructuring and the development of domestic demand have become important tasks at present, and the trend of the renminbi is closely related to this. We should pay attention to macroeconomic trends, grasp the logic behind exchange rate fluctuations, and avoid blind speculation and over-interpretation.
With the continuous development of China's economy and the advancement of the internationalization process of the RMB, the status and influence of the RMB will continue to increase. Therefore, when analysing the RMB exchange rate, we should maintain an objective and calm attitude, pay attention to economic fundamentals, and look for suitable long-term investment opportunities.