Reporter Liu Qi.
On December 22, the People's Bank of China released the China Financial Stability Report (2023) (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which comprehensively assessed the soundness of China's financial system in 2022.
According to the report, in 2022, in the face of the complex and changeable international environment and the impact of unexpected factors such as the epidemic, China efficiently coordinated epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, strengthened macroeconomic regulation and control, stabilized the economy in overcoming difficulties, and basically completed the main goals and tasks of development throughout the year in a complex and changeable environment, achieving stable economic operation, steady improvement in development quality, and stability in the overall social situation. Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 30%, the employment situation is generally stable, the balance of payments remains balanced, the RMB exchange rate remains basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, and the financial system is generally operating steadily.
The macro leverage ratio structure continues to be optimized
The macro leverage ratio is the ratio of a country's non-financial sector debt balance to GDP, which is an effective indicator to measure the relationship between debt financing scale, debt structure and economic development, and can provide an important decision-making reference for preventing and resolving financial risks and maintaining financial stability.
The report statesIn 2022, China's macro leverage ratio will rise in stages, but the leverage ratio structure will continue to be optimized, reflecting the countercyclical regulation and control policies to help stabilize the macro economy in the context of unexpected shocks disrupting China's economic growth.
The report believes that the phenomenon of the rebound in macro leverage ratio should be reasonably understood. On the one hand, the larger-than-expected shock has led to a slowdown in real GDP growth. On the other hand, the increase in China's price index has declined, weakening the role of promoting the decline of macro leverage. In addition, the implementation of macroeconomic policies has been strong, measured and effective, and the economy has stabilized with a controllable increase in debt.
At the same time, China's macro leverage ratio structure continues to be optimized. Specifically, the leverage ratio of the corporate sector rebounded, and the leverage structure continued to be optimized**Sector leverage is lower than that of major economies, providing a strong hedge against downward pressure on the economyThe epidemic has repeatedly affected residents' expectations, and the leverage ratio of the household sector has been stable and declining.
The overall operation of the financial market is stable
The report pointed out that in 2022, the overall operation of the financial market will be stable, the participants will be further enriched, the level of opening up will continue to improve, and the construction of the market system will make significant progress. The financial market has played an active role in serving the real economy and promoting high-quality economic development.
Since 2014, the People's Bank of China has selected typical indicators of the ** market, bond market, money market and foreign exchange market to construct relevant market stress indexes, and synthesized financial market stress indices on this basis. According to the report, in 2022, the financial market stress index** rose, but remained at a relatively modest level. Among them, ** market pressure level rises first and then falls;The money market interest rate pivot is downward, and the market pressure is generally declining;Bond market stress increased slightly at the end of the year;Pressure on the foreign exchange market has risen.
The report pointed out that in the next step, we should continue to adhere to the purpose of financial services for the real economy, further improve the basic system, promote market-oriented reform, promote the standardized development of the financial market, and guide financial resources to better support the key areas and weak links of economic and social development.
Specifically, there are several aspectsIt includes continuing to deepen the market-oriented reform of interest rates, continuing to promote the high-quality development of the bond market, actively promoting the reform and development of the first-class market, further developing the foreign exchange market, and promoting the healthy development of the bill and first-class markets.
Cross-border capital flows are generally rational and orderly
According to the report, in 2022, in the face of the complex and severe domestic and foreign economic and financial environment, China's current account and non-reserve financial accounts will show a pattern of "one forward and one negative". The current account surplus was US$401.9 billion, up 14% from 2021, basically the same as the historical peak, and the ratio to GDP in the same period was 2.2%, which continues to be in a reasonable equilibrium range. The non-reserve financial account deficit was US$211 billion, forming an independent balance pattern with the current account surplus. On the whole, China's balance of payments is basically balanced, and cross-border capital flows are generally rational and orderly.
Direct investment continued to be a net inflow pattern. In 2022, China's direct investment surplus will be US$30.5 billion, and two-way direct investment will remain balanced overall.
* Net outflows from investment narrowed significantly in the fourth quarter. In 2022, China's investment deficit will be US$281.1 billion, with a deficit of US$79.6 billion, US$78.3 billion, US$104 billion and US$19.3 billion in the four quarters, respectively.
Other investments are generally balanced. In 2022, China's other investment surplus was US$45.4 billion.
China's external financial assets and liabilities continue to maintain a relatively high scale. At the end of 2022, China's external financial assets were 926 trillion US dollars, external debt 6$73 trillion, which continues to be at a high level;Net external assets253 trillion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 158%, making it the third largest net creditor in the world.
The report pointed out that in 2023, the external environment will remain complex and volatile, the momentum of global economic growth will weaken, the pace of monetary policy adjustment in major developed economies will generally slow down, and there will still be uncertainties in the international financial market. However, from a domestic point of view, China will accelerate the construction of a new development pattern, focus on promoting high-quality development, adhere to promoting high-level opening-up, and make every effort to promote the overall improvement of economic operation, so that the balance of payments will have a better foundation and conditions to maintain a basic balance, and the stability of cross-border capital flows will be further enhanced.
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