Today**, the Shanghai Composite Index is reported at 293080 points, down 040%；Shen Cheng index reported 927939 points, down 113%；GEM index reported 182000 points, down 154%。The turnover of the two cities was 692.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day, and more than 4,400 stocks *** Today, the net inflow of northbound funds was 559.4 billion yuan, net **272.7 billion yuan.
Today, under the influence of factors such as insufficient turnover, tight liquidity at the end of the year, lack of confidence in the lack of money-making effect in the market, the index opened with inertia**, and once hit a previous low of 2923 during the sessionAt 51 points, although the end of the market pulled back slightly, the market is still weak.
The core problem of the current market is the lack of liquidity, and the reasons include:
1. Due to the influence of factors such as the year-end settlement of enterprises and bank assessment, there is a year-end inertial liquidity tightness.
2. The market lacks money-making effect and insufficient capital confidence.
3. During the repeated period, the Beijing Stock Exchange has reflected good returns, and the number of new shares and the scale of frozen funds have continued to grow, although the daily trading volume is not large, but the new freeze is more than 100 billion, which has produced a relatively large diversion of funds on the main board.
4. At the end of the year, under the market volatility, the market has the phenomenon of concentrated redemption, which has formed a negative feedback with the index.
In the case of continuous shrinkage in turnover, the large financial sector collectively closed down, the liquor sector broke down and fell, and the weight fell endlessly, which became the main drag on the index and affected market sentiment.
The only positive signal in today's market is that the northbound inflow contrarian throughout the day, although the share price of CATL fell by more than 5% throughout the day, but the northbound net ** throughout the day was 46.1 billion, if tomorrow to the north can continue to increase positions against the trend, there may be a ** signal, after all, the current turnover has fallen below 700 billion, the index has been adjusted from the stage high of 3089 for 20 trading days, today there is a gap to accelerate to catch up with the bottom, the index is approaching the change window, the bottom of the sentiment is coming, and the follow-up is expected to confirm the bottom of the market through a V-shaped reversal of the volume. For the trend reversal, we can pay attention to two factors, one is whether the central bank will cut the RRR at the end of the year, and the other is the PMI data in December.
1. Whether the northbound capital can continue to flow in.
2. Whether the central bank has any measures to further release liquidity.
The three major A-share indexes collectively closed down today. As of December 18**, the Shanghai Composite Index was reported at 293080 points, down 040%, with a turnover of 304.9 billion yuan;Shen Cheng index reported 927939 points, down 113%, with a turnover of 387.7 billion yuan;GEM index reported 182000 points, down 154%, with a turnover of 162.3 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 692.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 40.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day, exceeding 4,400 shares**.
In terms of capital flow, the net inflow of northbound funds was 559.4 billion yuan, net **272.7 billion yuan, of which 283 billion yuan, net **147 billion yuan;Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect net inflows were 276.4 billion yuan, net **125.7 billion yuan.
The net outflow of major funds in Shanghai and Shenzhen was 3462 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1477.3 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 198 million yuan4.7 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 270.1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 319 small orders2 billion yuan.
Sector:
Shipping, ports, logistics, and auto parts sectors were among the top gainers.
Shipping ports broke out against the trend, Air China COSCO 30cm daily limit, Jinjiang Shipping, COSCO Shipping Energy, Haitong Development, Ningbo COSCO and other shares of the daily limit.
Logistics sector Huaguang Hai**1681%, Longzhou shares, Zhongchuang Logistics, Shanghai Yashi rose by the limit, Yuanshang shares rose by more than 9%, and Antong Holdings and Haicheng Bangda rose by more than 7%.
The auto parts sector rose intraday, Shenda shares and Shenglong shares rose by the limit, Junchuang Technology rose by more than 18%, Tide shares rose by nearly 13%, Huguang shares and Anhui Phoenix rose by more than 9%, and Tianqi Mold rose by more than 8%.
**In terms of games, batteries, tourism and hotels, semiconductors, education, and Huawei's Euler concept were among the top decliners.
Game stocks fell, Wentou Holdings fell more than 7%, Palm Fun Technology, Shengtian Network fell more than 6%, and Yao Ji Technology fell more than 5%.
The battery sector fell sharply, Keheng shares fell by more than 8%, Times Wanheng fell by more than 6%, and Yihuatong-U, Mongguli, and CATL fell by more than 5%.
In the tourism and hotel sector, Lingnan Holdings fell more than 7%, Qujiang Cultural Tourism fell more than 5%, and Xi'an Catering and Xi'an Tourism fell more than 4%.
Education stocks**, ST Sansheng fell more than 6%, Xueda Education fell more than 5%, Kede Education, Rongxin Culture, Chuanzhi Education, and Onlly Education fell more than 4%.
Huawei's Euler concept stocks, Tianyuan Dike fell more than 6%, iSoftStone and Kirin Xinan fell more than 5%, and ArcherMind Technology fell more than 4%.
Overall:The three major indexes closed down across the board, the sector rose less and fell more, and the hot concept of state-owned enterprise reform last week also collectively **, and the sentiment has fallen. CEIBS pointed out that the unfavorable inertia of the lower index may continue until there is a clear signal of a large volume pull-up. Therefore, the response is still mainly defensive, or pay attention to local opportunities in the popular direction.
CEIBS** said that the CSI 300 index hit a new low this year, and the weakening of domestic demand once again caused market concerns. The market continues to dig deeper into the varieties that are expected to exceed expectations next year, and the policy implementation is expected to be carried out in an orderly manner. However, it will take time for the negative feedback on the capital side to improve, and the subsequent repair process of the market is likely to be difficult to achieve overnight. It may take longer for the market to return to equilibrium than previous market bottoms. The improvement of fundamentals will be the main tone for a period of time in the future, but there is some uncertainty about the timing of policy introduction.
As the current market has fully priced in downward pressure, and the market consensus expectation in the game of stimulus policy expectations is gradually weakening, although the improvement of liquidity after the market bottom will be relatively slow, the stimulus policy is expected to bring more upside opportunities.
From the perspective of the environment, Sino-US relations have stabilized, policies tend to resonate, and subsequent real interest rates tend to decline, which is conducive to market valuation. The new policy of the first-line property market is expected to promote its volume and price stabilization, and some data in the non-real estate field also show positive signals. The end of the year and the beginning of the year are often a favorable time window for the start of A-shares**, and once it is catalyzed, A-shares are expected to start a new round of rise at any time**.
At the level of industry allocation, the 2023 ** Economic Work Conference will set the tone for next year's nine key tasks, and place science and technology and expanding domestic demand in.
One, two. Looking back on history, the key industrial tasks proposed by the ** Economic Work Conference provide important guidance for the performance of the A-share industry in the following year, and full attention should be paid to the following three directions in the medium and long term: 1) leading the modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation, 2) new consumption and trade-in of consumer goods, and 3) equipment renewal.
Judging from the trend of the representative plates:
Shipping:
On the news side, a number of container shipping companies announced the suspension of all container ships in the Red Sea and nearby waters. CMA CGM Group, the world's third-largest container shipping company, said in a statement that it had announced the suspension of all its container shipments through the Red Sea until further notice due to heightened concerns about the security situation in and around the Red Sea. In addition, Maersk, the world's largest container shipping company, has suspended all vessel sailings through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, until further notice.
Guohai** said that the shipping artery may be blocked again, and the risk of rising freight rates will increase sharply. In the shipping segment, the supply of oil tankers and dry bulk carriers is tight, and the redundant capacity is insufficient, and any risk event that leads to damage to navigation efficiency may drive the freight rate up rapidly. The container shipping industry is solid and has benefited most from the Suez Canal's inefficiencies. Considering the latest supply and demand situation in the industry, as well as global geopolitical risks, we maintain the "Recommended" rating on the shipping sector.
Everbright** said that the impact of geopolitical conflicts has intensified, and a number of ships have been attacked in the Red Sea region, which is expected to catalyze the upward trend of container and oil freight rates. In terms of container transportation, the geopolitical risk superimposed on the peak of shipments before the Spring Festival is expected to boost the price of shipping companiesIn terms of oil transportation, spot freight rates are the most significant response to emergencies, and freight rates are expected to be reversed, with small and medium-sized ships directly benefiting and VLCC indirectlyThe rigidity of oil supply is highlighted, and if the geopolitical event lasts longer than expected, the elasticity of freight rates is expected to be fully reflected. In addition, it is also necessary to be vigilant against the sharp fluctuations in oil exchange exchanges, which affect the supply and demand of oil transportation, the cost of shipping companies, and the increase in shipping supply beyond expectations.
Car:
On the news side, Huawei recently officially announced that it will hold the M9 and Huawei winter all-scenario press conference on December 26. In addition, according to the statistical analysis of the China National Association, in November 2023, the production and sales of automobiles increased month-on-month and year-on-year, passenger cars continued to have a good trend, commercial vehicles maintained rapid growth, and new energy vehicles and automobile exports led the industry growth.
Donghai ** pointed out in the research report that the global competitiveness of the domestic automobile industry continues to improve, and follow the trend of electrification and intelligence to achieve the upgrading of the export structure to high-end, at present, domestic new energy vehicle exports mainly come from Tesla China, BYD, SAIC Passenger Vehicle, three major manufacturers, as more brands open the pace of overseas exports, BYD, Changan, Chery, GAC Aion and other independent brands overseas to gradually realize the localization of new energy vehicles, the domestic new energy vehicle industry first-mover advantage, and parts ** The advantages of the chain in terms of cost and response speed are expected to be further released. It is recommended to pay attention to the three main investment lines of intelligent driving, configuration upgrade, and Tesla's industrial chain.
In terms of policy, Everbright** believes that 1) the economic work conference mentioned automobile consumption for two consecutive years, and the wording changed from "support" to "boost", reflecting the country's emphasis on the new energy vehicle industry. 2) Shanghai is a key area to drive the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the retail sales of new energy vehicles in Shanghai accounted for 4% of the country in the first 11 months of 20235%, and the penetration rate of new energy has increased to 54%. Consumers can still flexibly adjust their qualifications by adjusting their application for family members, which can basically stabilize local NEV consumption. 3) From the perspective of outlook, with a clear development orientation of intelligent electrification, we are optimistic about the prospect of new energy sales climbing driven by the further improvement of domestic economy + consumption next year.
Everbright** said that the industry's price for volume intelligent theme trend continues: 1) Xiaomi SU7, Wenjie M9 and other models with high market attention have related interiors** and *** market sentiment is expected to be further boosted, and the short-term catalysis of Huawei's Xiaomi industry chain may depend on the pricing and order performance of new models, and in the medium and long term, it is related to the channel + delivery situation and the increase in the industry's intelligent penetration rate. 2) In view of the fact that the total demand is still to be recovered in an orderly manner, and the product matrix of Tesla and BYD's main belt has been relatively perfect, it is expected that the growth rate of domestic new energy vehicle sales in 2024e may decline, and it is expected that the market competition will be further intensified. 3) Continue to be optimistic about Tesla's (especially in North America) industrial chain and Tesla's FSD + DOJO + robot intelligent theme.
Education:
Yinhe ** said that the internal management of Oriental Selection has landed, and it is necessary to pay attention to the layout opportunities of the education sector. Affected by the intensification of internal management problems, the stock price of Dongfang Selection has exceeded 20% in the past week, accompanied by this week.
Fourth, Friday's incident deteriorated further, and New Oriental, Good Future, and Gaotu also showed significant declines. In the medium and long term, if this type of company wants to achieve sustainable business growth, it must finally complete the business model adjustment driven by talent to ** chain selection. In the short term, Oriental Selection has a limited impact on the parent company New Oriental, and it is expected that FY2 will contribute about 15%-17% of profits, and at present, Oriental Selection's ** education business has been injected into New Oriental, even if the subsequent sales of Oriental Selection fluctuate, the impact on New Oriental's profit is relatively limited.
Yinhe emphasized that the core logic of the current education sector is that there are positive factors at both ends of supply and demand, and the performance growth of the education sector is highly certain, and the comparative advantage in the large consumption industry is outstanding. It focuses on leading education companies with a high proportion of high school business.
1. The main lithium carbonate contract plunged in a straight line, falling more than 2% to 103,000 yuan in a day. According to the data released by Shanghai Ganglian, today's battery-grade lithium carbonate **2000 yuan ton, the average price is 10550,000 tons. (Bearish lithium battery sector).
2. Affected by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the tension in the Red Sea has further escalated, the four major shipping giants have suspended Red Sea transportation, the Suez Canal, the "main artery" of shipping, is facing the risk of closure, and the shipping cost is facing the risk of jumping in the short term. (Good for the shipping sector).
3. According to reports, this year's government will issue an additional 1 trillion yuan of treasury bonds, which will be used to support post-disaster recovery and reconstruction and improve disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities. Not long ago, the first batch of projects has been determined by the implementation mechanism of the Ministry of Finance in conjunction with relevant departments. It has been learned that the first batch of treasury bond funds budget of 237.9 billion yuan has been issued. (Positive market sentiment).
4. At the end of the year, the wave of mergers and acquisitions of state-owned enterprises was surging. Industry insiders believe that the meeting of heads of enterprises and the heads of local SASAC will be held in the near future to further deploy the reform of state-owned enterprises in 2024, the restructuring and integration of state-owned assets is expected to accelerate, and the layout of strategic emerging industries will become a new trend of professional integration of central enterprises. (Good for the concept of state-owned enterprise reform).
On the 15th, the People's Bank of China Party Committee held an enlarged meeting to convey the spirit of the Xi Economic Work Conference, and to study and deploy the implementation of the work. The meeting emphasized that counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments should be strengthened, credit should be guided to grow reasonably and in a balanced manner, and the quality and efficiency of financial support for the real economy should be improved. Promote financial stability legislation, accelerate the construction of financial stability guarantees, and firmly adhere to the bottom line of no systemic risks. (Positive market sentiment).
6. Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the High-quality Development of the Audiovisual Electronics Industry". Among them, it is proposed to accelerate the cultivation of specialized and new "little giants" and individual champions in the manufacturing industry in the fields of commercial display, vehicle audio-visual, and audio. Support backbone enterprises to become bigger and stronger, and support artificial intelligence enterprises to develop large models of audio-visual applications. (Good for the media sector).
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