Knowledge explosion training camp
Author Pot wrapped meat under the stars.
Edit Spinach's Starry Sky.
Typography Ice cream under the stars.
A dog has his day. Who would have thought that one day,ToysPlates can also become hot spots.
Shifeng Culture(002862) Mainly engaged in the research and development, design, production and sales of various toys. As of December 19th, Shifeng culture has come out5 boards for 7 daysTarget**. In just a few days, the stock price rose by more than 50%.
*: Straight Flush - Shifeng Culture, as of December 21.
However, in stark contrast to Shifeng culture, it has also been deeply cultivated in the toy track for many yearsMubang Hi-Tech(603398), but after pulling out a price limit, it fell again and again.
*: Straight Flush - Mubang Hi-Tech, as of December 21.
Compared with the two, I don't know how Shifeng culture can get the blue eyes of capital?It's just that if there is no performance support, how to go up, how will it eventually fall. As of this writing (December 21), Shifeng Culture has already eatenDrop limit
1. Weak demand and declining incomes
In fact, Shifeng culture has attracted attention, and to some extent, it is also stained with the light of AI.
On the interactive Q&A platform, investors have repeatedly askedgpttechnology applications. According to Shifeng Culture, the company is indeed relatedAI toys, such as intelligent robot dogs, educational robots, Feifei Rabbit GPT smart toys, etc.
Obviously, the heat of the AI market has spread to the field of toys.
*: Interactive Q&A platform - Shifeng Culture.
It is undeniable that with the blessing of various technical means, toy products are constantly updated and iterated. But for enterprises, products are ultimately for performance. Investors want profits, not toys.
From the perspective of performance, whether it is Shifeng Culture or Mubang Hi-Tech, they are all in a mess.
Mubang Hi-Tech was established in 2003 and started with educational toys. By 2019, the revenue of educational toys has reached high5.1.8 billion。However, in recent years, it has not been as good as it has been.
In 2022, the revenue of Mubang Hi-Tech's educational toys business will decrease by 50% year-on-year88%, in the first half of 2023, continues to decline by 5852%, the scale is left3888.060,000
*: Straight Flush ifind, Mubang Hi-Tech - Educational Toys Revenue.
Coincidentally, Shifeng Culture is also playing a similar story.
Shifeng culture has been accumulated in the toy industry for 30 years. At its peak in the past, the income of Shifeng Cultural Toys' self-production business was as high3.700 million。By 2022, there are only 200 million left.
In 2023, ** continues. In the first half of the year, the toy self-production business only achieved revenue7651.180 thousand, which continued to decline by 24 year-on-year61%。
*: Straight Flush ifind, Shifeng Culture - Toy self-production business revenue.
In the toy track, Mubang Hi-Tech and Shifeng Culture have worked hard for twenty or thirty years, but now, the scale of income is less than half of what it used to be.
Second, disorderly competition, shrinking profits
Mubang Hi-Tech and Shifeng culture are no longer prosperous, on the one hand, is the toy industry, especiallyExport marketOverall weakness. On the other hand, there is between businessesMarket competitionIt's getting more and more intense.
China is the world's largest toy producer and exporter, known as the "world toy factory". In 2022, the domestic sales revenue of China's toy industry will be 91.8 billion yuan, and the export value of export toys (excluding games) will be 483600 million US dollars, the proportion of export revenue is much higher than that of domestic sales.
In recent years, due to the complex international situation, the growth rate of toy exports has declined sharply. Data shows that China's toy exports increased year-on-year in 2021, the year-on-year growth in 2022 is only。By 2023, the export value in the first 11 months has been year-on-yearSlide 166%
In addition, there are a large number of toy manufacturers in China, but the toy manufacturers are small and scattered, mostly OEM foundry, the overall R & D and design level is low, the visibility is low, the product homogeneity is serious, and the bargaining power is poor, which ultimately leads to** BattleFrequently, toy manufacturers are seriously disorderly and competitive.
As a result, the profit margins of toy manufacturers have shrunk significantly.
Judging from the data, Mubang Hi-Tech's educational toy business,Gross marginhas been from the past, all the way down to 2022。Profit shrank by 2 3 (Gross profit margin of the toy business segment in the first half of 2023 was 6..)19%, net of internal offsets).
*: Straight Flush ifind, Mubang Hi-Tech - Educational Toys gross profit margin.
In contrast, although Shifeng Culture is not as exaggerated as Mubang Hi-Tech, the gross profit margin of its self-produced toy business has also dropped to around 20%.
*: Straight Flush ifind, Shifeng Culture - Gross profit margin of toy self-production business.
At the same time, as revenues plummeted,Income vs. expensesTarget**. DilutionWane.
In the past, Shifeng culture soldPeriod expense rateIt's basically below 15%. In the first three quarters of 2023, the expense ratio during the period has been as high as 25% (due to the relatively high proportion of photovoltaic business in Mubang Hi-Tech's total revenue, only the expense ratio of Shifeng Culture is seen here).
*: Straight Flush ifind - Shifeng Culture.
The gross profit margin is 20% and the expense ratio is 25%. Obviously, even the real culture of toys with higher gross margins has beenUnable to make ends meet
From 2020 to 2022, Shifeng Culture will achieve non-net profit of -3972220,000, -2038560,000, -4115850,000,Three years in a row。In the first three quarters of 2023, it continued to lose 1395320,000.
Weak market demand and shrinking profit margins are the real and brutal realities facing the toy industry.
Third, turn to photovoltaics, mud bodhisattvas cross the river
Today, toy manufacturers are struggling to survive. For this reason, enterprises are looking for ways to break the situation, and Mubang Hi-Tech and Shifeng Culture are invariably targetingPhotovoltaicsTrack.
Mubang Hi-Tech's cross-border approach is mergers and acquisitions. In May 2022, Mubang Hi-Tech invested 9800 million, the value of the acquired assets is only 19.7 billionMilliamp Energy, for which it is formedGoodwill78.3 billion, accounting for about 25% of total assets at the end of the year.
*: Mubang Hi-Tech 2022 Annual Report.
It can be seen that in order to enter the photovoltaic industry, Mubang Hi-Tech has made a lot of money.
MA Energy is a manufacturer of photovoltaicsSilicon ingotsSilicon wafersof companies, in which the silicon wafers are still cut by outsourcing manufacturers. At the time of the previous acquisition, the original shareholders of MA Energy had made performance commitments. The number of promised profits for 2022-2025 is 1400 million, 1600 million, 1800 million, 200 million. It's a pity that it was not achieved in the first year (2022 mAh Energy net profit of 1.).3.1 billion).
Nowadays, the account hangs on the 7800 million goodwill returnedNo provision for impairment has been madeIf this development continues, I am afraid that it will eventually become a hidden danger.
The layout of Shifeng Culture in the photovoltaic track also starts from foreign investment.
In November 2022, Shifeng Culture invested 100 million yuan to obtain a 25% stake in Anhui Chaolong Optoelectronics. Chaolong Optoelectronics is dedicated and professional in productionPhotovoltaic modulesof enterprises. The data shows that in 2022, Chaolong Optoelectronics will achieve a net profit of 2058850,000, and in the first half of 2023, it will only be 575420,000.
Chaolong Optoelectronics' already low profits are still declining. I don't know when the consideration of 100 million yuan of Shifeng Culture will be returned?
In April this year, Shifeng Culture established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Shenzhen Shifeng Green Energy, engaged inInvestment and operation of distributed photovoltaic power stations, distributed photovoltaic power station development and service. Obviously, Shifeng Culture is not willing to give up the growth opportunities of photovoltaics.
However, as the author said in "Evaporating 100 billion!Jinko vs Trina, photovoltaic overcapacity, capital escape" said in the article, now the photovoltaic track has become the main battlefield of involution, I don't know what capital Shifeng Culture and Mubang Hi-Tech can gain a firm foothold?
The main track of toys is weak, and Shifeng Culture and Mubang Hi-Tech regard photovoltaic as a savior to save the declining performance, but as everyone knows, photovoltaic itself is a mud bodhisattva crossing the river.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. **There are risks, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.