On the evening of December 27, the Bank of Japan Ueda Kazuo said in an interview with Japan** that the Bank of Japan is also likely to make some decisions without knowing the full results of the SME salary negotiations, although it is unlikely that the policy will be adjusted in January, but the possibility of this possibility cannot be ruled out.
Relevant analysts pointed out that this week, the Bank of Japan frequently released policy shifts to the market, and Ueda's latest speech hinted that the Bank of Japan may act as soon as possible in raising interest rates.
According to a survey conducted in early December, two-thirds of economists expect the Bank of Japan to phase out its ultra-loose monetary policy by April. The latest overnight swap data shows that:There is less than a 10% chance of a rate hike in January, compared to an 89% chance of action before the end of June.
What is certain is that Ueda's guidance on monetary policy will support economists' views and signal a farewell to the "era of negative interest rates", with investors seeing the BOJ's historic rate hikes since 2007 as early as early next year.
It is worth noting that compared to Japan's interest rate hike, do not ignore the U.S. interest rate cut, on the afternoon of the 28th, the U.S. dollar against the yen exchange rate in the Tokyo foreign exchange market due to the U.S. interest rate cut ** and the sell-off, once reached 1 U.S. dollar to 140 yen 70 cents. This is the appreciation of the yen and the depreciation of the dollar in about five months since the end of July.
That is to say,A U.S. interest rate cut will also cause the yen to rise, and if Japan raises interest rates and the U.S. cuts interest rates, the yen will inevitably fly up like a rocket.
On the 27th, due to the deterioration of the Richmond Fed manufacturing index in December, the market expected the news of a U.S. interest rate cut went viral. Once long-term U.S. interest rates fall, the dollar will be sharply tastier against the yen**.
In addition, EUR/JPY was also on the afternoon of the 28th**. Unchanged against the US dollar. At 3 p.m., 1 euro = 156 yen 82 minutes 83 minutes (5 p.m. the day before, 157 yen 64 minutes 65 minutes), dollar = 11109 points 1109 USD (1.)1040 points $1041).
As of December 28, 100 yen to 5 yuan.
It is believed that the U.S. interest rate cut policy has a significant impact on the global economy. It will lead to a depreciation of the US dollar, an appreciation of other currencies, and a higher risk appetite for US dollar assets***, providing more opportunities for investors. However, this also poses an inflation risk that requires investors to remain vigilant.
In the uncertain world of finance, knowledge and prudence are the keys to success. May your investment journey be smooth and rewarding.