On December 27, the bimonthly magazine "The National Interest" published an article entitled "War with China Is Not Inevitable", written by Ryan Bercow. The full text is compiled below
The recent thaw in diplomatic relations between China and the United States and the resumption of dialogue are positive developments, but the deep-seated fundamental issues remain unresolved. In this realistic situation, is there bound to be a conflict?Frankly, the situation does not look rosy, but this does not mean that conflict is inevitable. The forces of fate will not force Washington and Beijing into conflict. Peace can be maintained, but only if both countries** are willing to make an effort to do so.
Experts and scholars often view Sino-US relations from the perspective of the ancient Greek historian Thucydides. Graham Allison, a professor at Harvard University in the United States, wrote "Doomed to War: Can China and the United States Avoid the Thucydides Trap?".is a well-known example. "The Thucydides trap refers to the fact that when a rising state threatens to replace an existing established state, there is naturally a ...... of inevitable chaos," he saidWhen a rising state can threaten or even replace an existing established state, the resulting structural pressures can lead to violent conflict, without exception. ”
In the eyes of many, this is a convincing analogy. However, the complexity of the U.S.-China relationship far exceeds this comparison. The Thucydides trap model fails to adequately take into account the fact that Washington and Beijing have considerable influence over actions that escalate or de-escalate tensions. The change in hard power is only a relevant factor in this calculation, and the two sides have had a sustained relative peace for decades.
However, the two sides are not without their tests, and tensions between China and the United States are not new, but there are many examples of successful conflict mitigation in history. The history of U.S.-China relations shows a clear pattern of mutual tolerance. This situation begs an important question: Why?
In a nutshell – in 2022, the value of goods and services between the United States and China was $758.4 billion. In the past 30 years, Washington has been one of China's largest partners, and both the United States and China have made a lot of money. Has been a critical stabilizer, a robust one that can discourage draconian policy changes that exacerbate the likelihood of conflict, thereby promoting peace. But growing tensions are forcing both sides of the Pacific to "decouple" their economies to reduce potential losses. This trend highlights a key source of tension – insecurity.
We must understand that peace is not a static end state. On the contrary, peace is an ongoing process that requires the active participation of both parties, maintaining communication, mediating disputes, and sending a signal of peace. U.S.-China conflict is not inevitable, but it is likely to occur if neither side makes an effort to engage and does not help steer the relationship in a more sustainable direction. (Compiled by Wu Mei).