The "chicken cycle", which had high hopes, has been dumb since the fourth quarter, and in December, white-feathered broilers even refreshed the lows of the past two years. Recently, a number of white-feathered broiler listed companies disclosed data that sales revenue in November fell month-on-month and year-on-year. Industry analysts believe that the end market demand is sluggish before the Spring Festival, and the chicken market is difficult to be optimistic.
Source: Picture Worm Creative).
The data shows that in November, the white feather broiler market showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and the average price of domestic white feather broilers in mid to early November was 372 yuan catty, an increase of 3 from the previous month05%, year-on-year **2152%。In the second half of the year, the average price of hairy chickens increased by 381 yuan jin fast** to 371 yuan catty. From December 1st to 5th, the domestic white-feathered broiler ** maintained a low level and continued to decline, and the average price of broilers in the country was 3 since the beginning of the month59 yuan Jin fell to 349 yuan catty, a cumulative decline of 2 in 5 days79%。
According to the combing, the current broiler ** has been lower than the beginning of March this year 3The low point of 5 yuan jin in the year is also lower than the low point of last year's selling price, and it is more than 30% lower than the high point of 5 yuan jin this year. Among other products, the national average price of frozen large breasts and large-sized pipa legs has fallen to the lowest point of the year, which is higher than the highest point60%。
Sun Yanan, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, said that on the whole, the broiler market fell relatively large in mid to early November, and the broiler market as a whole was in short supply, which was the fundamental reason for the broiler market in November. However, due to the slow digestion of the downstream product market, the slaughtering enterprises have insufficient intention to raise the price to purchase chickens, and the demand constraints make the increase in chicken prices smaller. Entering December, the broiler market formed a situation of oversupply, resulting in a new low for broilers at the beginning of the month.
The sluggishness of white feather broilers has also dragged down the performance of related enterprises, and the performance of some listed companies in the first three quarters has achieved several times or even more than ten times growth, but since the fourth quarter, it is obvious that the scenery is no longer good.
A few days ago, Xiantan Co., Ltd. announced that the sales revenue of chicken products in November was about 42.3 billion yuan, the number of sales is 4840,000 tons, year-on-year changes were. 11%, and the month-on-month change was -1705%、-10.44%。
Last week, Yisheng also announced that the number of white feather broiler chicks sold in November was 4900040,000, sales revenue of 15.9 billion yuan, year-on-year changes were -038%、-34.50%, and the month-on-month change was -589%、-8.25%。According to the ** of Yisheng shares and Minhe shares, the latest chicken seedlings on December 11 ** were 25 yuan feathers, this ** fell back to the low point of the year again.
It is understood that in the current broiler industry chain, the losses in all aspects of incubation, breeding and slaughtering are relatively serious, and upstream poultry enterprises have pessimistic expectations for the market outlook. At present, superimposed on factors such as weak end market demand, the digestion of product inventory of white feather broilers before the Spring Festival will be limited.
At present, the end market demand is weak, the middlemen and food processing enterprises have relatively sufficient inventory, affected by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, the product continues to decline, the industry is more cautious about taking the goods, the slaughtering enterprises are slow to ship, and the inventory pressure continues to rise. Sun Yanan analyzed.
Judging from the current market demand for white feather broilers, the terminal market demand has not improved for the time being, the social inventory and enterprise inventory are at a high level, and the product market demand may continue to be weak. In January next year, considering the holiday of colleges and universities, the demand for catering group meals may decline further. The slowdown in the shipment speed of manufacturers, coupled with the fact that some slaughtering companies have early holiday plans, that is, the slaughter volume of the slaughtering end from late January next year may decline one after another, or further negative for the future broiler market, and the demand side may face more than expected.
However, the current downturn in the broiler market does not necessarily mean that "the general trend has gone". Looking back on the period of chicken ** in the first half of this year, one of the important driving factors is the shortage of domestic white-feathered chickens caused by the foreign avian influenza epidemic. At present, the epidemic abroad is not over.
According to reports, the recent outbreak of avian influenza has been repeated in the world, which has infected many European and American countries, including the United States, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands, and in Asia, South Korea, Japan, Cambodia and other countries have epidemics, which may affect the domestic introduction in 2024.
Brokerage analysis believes that since May last year, the grandparents of the overseas introduction gap at the end of the year is coming, the supply of commercial broilers is about to shrink, and the recent overseas epidemic has risen again to continue to disturb the overseas introduction of China's ancestral white feather chickens and the global chicken supply, and the breeder enterprises are still a key link worth paying attention to. 
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