Be wary of India s threat to China

**: Huaihe rain.

Author: Huai Heyu.

Short comment

India's rise has had a negative impact on China in two ways: first, the border conflict, which has greatly distracted China;The second is the Sichuan region, which threatens China's strategic rear, but now India is trying to open a third front - meddling in the issue of China's Taiwan.

01 The Indians are planning to interfere in the Taiwan Strait issue, which sounds incredible, but it is true.

In August 2023, India's former Army Chief of Staff Naravahn, former Chief of Staff of the Navy Karambil Singh, and former Chief of Staff of the Air Force Bahadariya traveled to Taiwan to participate in the "Kedagran" defense forum held in Taipei.

The main topic of the defense forum is to focus on Indo-Pacific security issues, and most countries have shied away from holding such forums in Taiwan because of the sensitivity of holding such forumsInstead, India sent three former high-ranking military officers, which is well known to all.

Do you know what "Cadegran" means?

The Kaida Gran people are the aborigines of Taiwan, and unlike the Gaoshan people, the Gaoshan people claim to be the aborigines of Taiwan, but in fact they are also distributed in mainland China, but the number is much smaller than that of Taiwan.

The Kaida Gran people, on the other hand, are the original Taiwanese aborigines, who are small in population and were almost primitive before the arrival of Spanish and Dutch colonists in the 17th century.

After Zheng Chenggong's army recovered Taiwan, he vigorously promoted Sinicization education, and the Kaida Grand people quickly integrated with the Han people.

Today's Kaida Gran people have been completely sinicized, but the *** authorities use "Kaida Gran" as the name of the defense forum, and it is self-evident what information they want to convey.

It is impossible for Indians not to know the story, India's Chinese language fever is relatively high, but they reject the introduction of teachers from Chinese mainland.

In 2011, France** reported that India's Ministry of Education planned to work with Taiwan to recruit 10,000 Chinese language teachers from Taiwan to meet the needs of the Xi Chinese language learners in India.

At the official level, in the Chinese language training of India, since 2020, Indian officials have basically transferred the Chinese language training of diplomatic ** from Chinese mainland to Taiwan, China.

We simply understand this phenomenon as India's wariness of China is not enough, and India is trying to strengthen its ties with Taiwan, which is India's real purpose.

Just mentioned that India sent three former high-ranking military officers to Taiwan, don't think that with a preamble you think they are useless.

These high-ranking Indian military officers have worked in India's military and political system for decades and have extremely deep roots, and they can easily convey the ideas and intentions of India's top leaders to the Taiwan authorities.

In the same way, the Taiwanese authorities can also inform the Indian military delegation of their demands, and then the three retired senior Indian military officers will convey them to their own country**.

There is no obstacle in between, and if China is to investigate it severely, India can also use this private visit as an excuse to prevaricate, which can be described as a good calculation.

It is reported that the Indian delegation held secret talks in Taiwan with the so-called National Defense Security Research Institute, a subordinate department of Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.

There is reason to believe that the two sides have carried out in-depth military exchanges, and in September this year, an unnamed India** revealed that India is studying how to respond to a war in the Taiwan Strait.

Earlier, in July, Taiwan opened its third office in India, the Taipei Economic and Cultural Office in Mumbai, and India is deliberately low-key in dealing with these matters, but the facts are irrefutable.

The current Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi, also has a criminal record, having visited Taiwan in 1999 when Modi, then the BJP secretary-general, visited Taiwan.

In 2007, Ma Ying-jeou visited India in the name of the chairman of the Kuomintang, do you know what 2007 means for Ma Ying-jeou?

In 2007, Ma Ying-jeou was actively running for the leadership of Taiwan, and in May 2008, Ma Ying-jeou got his wish, and his visit to India was not a simple private visit.

The ties between Taiwan and India are far more frequent than we might think, and they should not be taken lightly.

**Quoted from CCTV Military.

It has been reported that Taiwan is engaged in secret military cooperation with India, and that India intends to help Taiwan set up an intelligence center in northeastern India to collect military information in southwest China.

02 If India just thinks so in its heart and is making some small moves, it is not a worry, but the current momentum of India's economic development is shocking.

In the first three quarters of 2023, India's economy grew by 71%, leading the growth rate of major large economies.

At present, India is firmly the fifth largest economy in the world, and if it continues to maintain economic growth of 7% or 6% in the future, it is not impossible to surpass Germany and Japan to become the top three.

India's ** continues to skyrocket, and at the end of 2021, India** is only 233 trillion dollars, and now it has reached 4 trillion dollars.

What is the concept of a $4 trillion market capitalization?Hong Kong, known as one of the world's three major financial centers, has only 4 leftWith a market capitalization of $7 trillion, it is not certain that it will be surpassed by India one day.

India** has undoubtedly become one of the fastest growing countries in the world and is highly sought after by international investors.

According to rational analysis, India today has three major advantages for economic development:

First, there is the advantage of a huge population.

While major countries around the world are suffering from an ageing society, India is not affected by this problem.

In 2022, the average age of the Indian population is 287 years old;During the same period, China has reached the age of 37;In the United States, it is 39 years old;Japan is even worse, with an average age of 484 years old, South Korea also has 446 years old.

In the past few decades, China has given full play to the advantages of the demographic dividend, attracting a large number of industries to settle in China, and boosting the take-off of China's national strength.

Now there is reason to believe that India, with its young population, may have to give full play to its demographic dividend advantage.

A large population will not only attract international industrial transfer, but the size of the population itself will also determine the size of the consumer market.

Almost all international institutions believe that India will grow into the third largest consumer market after the United States and China in the next five years.

Second, India's political situation is stable.

A very important political reason for India's rise is that Modi's BJP has further strengthened its leadership position in India.

On December 3, 2023, India held local elections;In the contest of the four states (the state is equivalent to the province of China), the BJP won three, directly overpowering the largest opposition party, the National Congress of India (Congress Party for short).

The three states are Rajasthan, ** and Chhattisgarh, which were previously controlled by the Congress Party for five years and have now been taken away all at once.

The local elections on December 3 are crucial as they are the last local elections before the nationwide of India in 2024.

According to opinion polls, 52% of Indian voters support Modi's BJP, and almost all of them believe that Modi will win the national championship next year.

If Modi does win, it will be Modi's third term as prime minister;The term of office of the Prime Minister of India is five years, and the more than ten years of government before and after have ensured the stability of India.

Political stability ensures the coherence of economic policies, and it is clear that international investors highly recognize Modi's achievements in the past 10 years and are confident in his next term.

Third, the geopolitical conflict between China and the United States has accelerated the transfer of international industrial chains.

It is a well-known fact that India has become the biggest beneficiary of the geopolitical conflict between China and the United States, and India is also trying to find ways to extract more industrialization "codes" from China.

The most typical is the punishment of Xiaomi, the punishment itself is actually just a routine operation in India, and the victims are not only Xiaomi, but also famous companies in the United States and Europe.

India requires Xiaomi to hire Indian nationals as senior executives of Xiaomi India, including CEOs, CFOs, COOs, etc., and they must have the management rights of Chinese companies investing in India.

The purpose of this is to learn from Chinese companies how to run a modern mobile phone manufacturing company, from production to sales.

It will be very easy to replace Chinese companies in the future, and the United States is very happy to see India do so.

As the United States strives to de-sinicize, Washington may not be interested in supporting India as the next world factory, but cultivating India to replace Chinese manufacturing in some industrialization processes is an option worthy of American investment.

Doing so would both weaken China's power and ensure a more diversified U.S. chain, killing two birds with one stone.

Therefore, there is no doubt that India's economic development is fueled by the power of the United States.

**Quoted from the web.

03 Now everyone can look down on India, after all, India's total GDP is only 18 of China82 percent, less than one in five.

India's military industry is backward, and there is still a big gap between it and China's comprehensivenessIndia's emerging industries are not developing enough to threaten China.

But in another 5 or 10 years, it's hard to say.

The United States and the West value India very much, and in October this year, India and Canada "turned against each other".

Because India** assassinated the Sikh leader Nijjar, who had obtained Canadian citizenship, in Canada, the two sides erupted into external spraying.

The end result is that it is not enough, and India is extremely tough.

Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau originally went to the United States ** Biden to complain, but Biden could only say to Trudeau that he would bear with it.

In fact, India also intends to assassinate Sikh leaders in the United States, and the FBI claims to have thwarted India's attempt to assassinate Sikh leader Gulpatvant Pannon.

The Americans were angry, and they stabbed the matter directly to Modi's side.

Modi naturally did not want to offend the Americans, so he expressed a high degree of concern, but the United States and India still chose to keep a low profile on the matter.

The United States is the world's largest power, so naturally it cannot afford to offend, and Canada is not a green onion in the eyes of Indians, and they directly scold.

India is very shrewd, and Modi is taking advantage of his position at the crossroads between East and West.

They imported a lot of cheap ** from Russia and sold it to Western countries.

India has made a lot of money as a middleman, and European countries have also enjoyed low-cost oil resources, and the only victim is Russia.

Russia is reluctant to lose the big market of India, knowing that India, the sixth old, is a second-class dealer, so it can only eat Coptis chinensis dumbly.

Modi is also well aware of the extremely poor relations between China and the United States, and has taken advantage of the idea that the United States is trying to carry out strategic encirclement of China to deepen military cooperation with the United States.

The United States and India have held a number of military exercises this year, at least two of which took place about 100 kilometers from the Sino-Indian border, which can be said to be very close.

Among the world's major economies, India is doing its best to build good relations with the United States and EuropeRussia is already notorious, but India maintains a special relationship with Russia.

The only one that has not deepened relations is ChinaIt can be said that these potential moves by India are aimed at China at every turn.

At this time, many people may ask whether Pakistan can be used to contain India.

My view is that Pakistan no longer has the guts to challenge India, and the difference in strength between the two sides is too great.

In November 1971, the Third Indo-Pakistani War broke out, and Pakistan suffered a crushing defeat.

India succeeded in dismembering Pakistan, which had two territories, East Pakistan, now Bangladesh, which was originally part of Pakistan and became independent in the Third Indo-Pakistani War.

Since then, Pakistan has been reluctant to engage in a large-scale military conflict with India.

If it is said that during the Cold War, the two sides still fought from time to time;After the end of the Cold War, both India and Pakistan became much more moderate.

At the end of October, an Indian drone flew into Pakistan, and a military conflict broke out between India and Pakistan, but on a small scale.

The only things used by both sides are mortars, machine guns, etc., Pakistan does not want to offend India, and India does not have the idea of bullying others, and both sides have maintained restraint.

One of the major characteristics of Pakistan this year is that it is actively moving closer to the United States, and under this general trend, the conflict with India can only be regarded as a misfire.

As a typical example, when there was a conflict on the border between China and India, Pakistan did not take the opportunity to take any strong action to help China distract India.

Pakistanis are also shrewd, and Pakistani caretaker Prime Minister Kakar recently attended the completion ceremony of the Gwadar Port Desalination Plant and the China-Pakistan Friendship Hospital.

Kakar is well aware of the characteristics of the Chinese who love to listen to good words, and said the touching amazing words of "willing to block the bullets flying for the Chinese", and these good words are good to listen to.

**Quoted from the web.

04Is there any other way to restrain India?

I think we need to do the following:

1. Strengthen the military deployment in the southwest region, the Indians have gathered no less than 200,000 people on the border of our country, and it is necessary to strengthen the deployment of the squadron in the southwest and the first region.

It is not necessary to pile up heads, but it is necessary to use advanced technological weapons to deter India's ambitions.

Speaking of the southwest, it is necessary to mention Sichuan, India is less than 1,000 kilometers away from the most important city in southwest China - Chengdu.

During the Anti-Japanese War, Sichuan was China's strategic rearBecause there were no strong enemies on the periphery of Sichuan, Burma and India were controlled by the British at that time, and China and Britain were allies at that time.

China can rest assured that Britain will work together against Japan back-to-back, but now it is different, the rise of India is bound to threaten China's southwestern rear, and it is necessary to strengthen precautions.

2. Don't get too involved in India's industrialization, including helping India with large-scale infrastructure construction.

One of China's most successful initiatives over the past 30 years or so has been its large-scale infrastructure development, which has facilitated the needs of the people and attracted foreign investment.

The United States and Europe will also help India improve their infrastructure, but China's non-involvement could slow down India's industrialization.

3. If necessary, you can sign a garrison agreement with Pakistan.

Although Pakistan cannot be counted on, Pakistan is strategically located to threaten India to the east and to the south to have access to the Indian Ocean.

However, Pakistan pursues a strategy of alliance with the United States, and whether it can station troops in Pakistan is a huge unknown.

4. Try to cut ties between India and Taiwan.

India has always pursued a one-China policy, but this does not mean that India will not use the Taiwan issue to stab China in the back.

Remember that in August 1958, the Kinmen Artillery Battle broke out;In 1959, India sabotaged the Sino-Indian border negotiationsIn 1962, the Sino-Indian War broke out.

We know that China and India fought a war in 1962, but if we stretch the timeline, do we find that there are many foreshadowings in the story?

That's all for today's topic, and the final advice is not to underestimate India, if you don't pay attention to this country today, you may become a big problem in the future.