List of high-quality authors
Two questions to ask first:
The first question is whether the difficulty on the road to recovery is the lack of confidence in the private economy or overcapacity
The second question is, why is there overcapacity?Is it classic capitalist overproduction?
The answer to the first question is simple, every reader sees himself as an investment, and everything is clear when he walks through the market. Experts are keen to talk about confidence as walking with your head.
As we know, the pressure on the economy is concentrated in two aspects: corporate investment and household consumption. Businesses don't invest or lend, it's not a matter of confidence;The failure of the household consumption index to rise is not a problem of insufficient expectations for future income and employment.
What's the problem behind faith?
The fundamental problem is overcapacity.
Overcapacity has hampered a rapid economic recovery because monetary easing has failed.
Entrepreneurs are not active in lending because of a lack of orders in hand. A friend participated in the bidding, a palm-sized project, the company competed, and finally won the bid at a price lower than the column, which ** is still profitable?That is, to amortize the comprehensive cost. There is a surplus of houses, a surplus of cars, and a surplus of household appliances, Ren Zeping has been encouraging the purchase of new energy, and as a result, there is also a surplus of new energy;There is no surplus of artificial intelligence, and how many companies still have the confidence to impact?
Overcapacity is a relative concept, and it is a relatively effective oversupply.
Effective demand looks at the six pockets of the common people, which have been emptied at the peak of real estate, and almost all households have completed a large-scale overconsumption. This year was supposed to be a consumption year, the epidemic is over, and the crowds are surging, why can't the consumption index go up?Because the daily consumption of the epidemic will not be much different from the daily consumption of the post-epidemic epidemic. Whether there is an epidemic or not, the consumption index is stable, and the focus is still on the big consumption of real estate, and the proportion of housing prices and income in China is too high.
According to Numbeo**, as of the first quarter of 2023, the top five countries and regions with the highest price-to-income ratios in the world are:
Syria (867）
Ghana (78.)6）、
Hong Kong, China (44.)9）
Sri Lanka (408）
China (346）
The situation in the developed countries of the world is as follows:
Singapore (155）
Israel (141）
France (11.)8）
Germany (107）
Japan (103）
Canada (94）
New Zealand (90）
United Kingdom (83）
Australia (75）
United States (45）
This can be said to be a lack of income or overcapacity.
As for overcapacity, according to Marx's classic formulation, it is rooted in polarization, the excessive concentration of wealth in the hands of a very small number of people, which leads to a decline in consumption, and this is how the crisis of overproduction in capitalism is refined.
However, this is not the case with China.
China is a country with a socialist system and a high tax system, and the main wealth is not controlled by a very small number of capitalists. China's problems are structural.
The structural problem manifests itself in two ways.
The first aspect is manifested in the development model
It is necessary to shift from an investment-oriented to a consumption-oriented one, that is, it is necessary to reform the distribution relationship and tilt the distribution of income in favor of the residents.
The wealth created by a country in a year is mainly divided into three companies: enterprises and residents. For a long time, the proportion of income distributed by Chinese residents has been significantly lower than the international average. Liu Yuanchun of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics has made this problem very clear with data. Then it is not a problem of capitalism, not of the non-public economy, not of the private economy, but of the strength of fiscal dominance.
How national income is distributed among residents is just as important, if not more important.
This restructuring is aimed at replacing unsustainable investment with growing consumption. The government should either improve the social security mechanism shared by the whole people, such as medical care, education, and pension, or directly issue coupons, but it must always do something, truly fulfill the promise made by the two sessions, and use China's fiscal revenue for people's livelihood.
The second aspect is the allocation of resources
It is market demand and efficiency that determines the flow of resources, not inefficient long-term investments for the sake of ownership weights.
The assets of state-owned enterprises are expanding rapidly, but their efficiency is decreasing, and their assets are already twice that of private enterprises, and they are far superior to private enterprises in almost all factors.
Private enterprises, on the other hand, have supported tax revenues and employment.
Private enterprises to do industrial upgrading, that is far away, now the core problem is employment, is to protect low-end industries.
Why are private enterprises always so nervous?
Because China's economy is a dual structure, resource misallocation, the space of private enterprises is squeezed by non-market behavior, and the market loses the virtuous circle of full competition.
China's overcapacity is a Chinese-style overcapacity.