Reporter Li Yuan Liang Min.
The journey to 2024 has begun. In the new year, how will China's economy consolidate and enhance the upward trend?Through five sets of hot words, the main line of policy in 2024 is clearly visible.
1. Establishment and breaking
* The Economic Work Conference proposed that to do a good job in economic work in 2024, "we must insist on seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability with progress, and establishing first and then breaking down".
"Establishment" and "breaking" are a pair of dialectical relationships about the transformation and innovation of things in the excellent traditional Chinese culture, and they are also an important way to promote high-quality economic development.
Putting "establishment" in the first place and emphasizing "establishing the word first" means putting the improvement of the existing system and mechanism in the first place, and putting the elimination of inappropriate systems and mechanisms in the second place, so as to ensure the stability and continuity of policies and steadily promote reform.
"Stand first and then break" is not the first time it has been mentioned. As early as July 2021, the Politburo meeting mentioned "correcting the movement-style 'carbon reduction', first establishing and then breaking";In December 2021, the ** Economic Work Conference proposed that "we must insist on seeking progress while maintaining stability, adjust policies and promote reforms, grasp the timeliness and efficiency, and insist on establishing first and then breaking down, and making steady and steady progress".
This is particularly important for China's economy in the transition period of old and new kinetic energy: seize all favorable opportunities, take advantage of all favorable conditions, and do as soon as you see it, and do more if you can. In the words of the relevant person in charge of the Central Finance Office, it is necessary to take into account stability and progress as a whole, and those who should be "established" must take the initiative to "stand". Those who should be "broken" should be resolutely "broken" on the basis of "establishing." At the same time, it is necessary to work steadily and steadily, grasp the timing, degree, and effect, and not deviate from reality and rush for success. The "establishment" and "breaking" here, including but not limited to the new model of real estate development, energy structure and debt management mechanism, etc., indicate that we will be more prudent and prudent in dealing with related issues in the future, which is also consistent with the policy orientation of "promoting stability by progress".
The policy of "establishing first and then breaking" and steady progress reflects the deep understanding and scientific research and judgment of the current complex situation of economic development. In the new year, we must firmly grasp the "five musts," grasp the main contradictions, and grasp the order of "establishment" and "breaking."At the same time, we should pay attention to the forward-looking layout, focus on "establishment", and plan for future action, so that the road of high-quality development can be stable and far-reaching.
Second, the quality and quantity increase
From focusing on the primary task of high-quality development to "taking high-quality development as the last word in the new era", the Economic Work Conference has provided guidance for the direction of China's economic development, and high-quality development will be the main theme of this year.
Better coordination of the effective improvement of economic quality and reasonable growth of quantity reflects the shift from the pursuit of speed and scale to the pursuit of efficiency and quality, which is also the essence of high-quality development.
Quality and quantity increase mean more attention to structural optimization, innovation-driven and sustainable development. Judging from this year's work deployment, the importance of scientific and technological innovation has risen significantly, and "leading the construction of a modern industrial system with scientific and technological innovation" has been placed at the top of the nine key tasks.
Various ministries and commissions also focus on scientific and technological innovation: implement high-quality development actions for key industrial chains in the manufacturing industry, enhance industrial scientific and technological innovation capabilities, cultivate and expand emerging industries, and promote artificial intelligence-enabled new industrializationImplement structural tax and fee reduction policies, focus on supporting scientific and technological innovation and manufacturing development, and strengthen policy supplyIn-depth implementation of the national strategic emerging industry exhibition project, cultivate and expand future industries.
This year, there will be important arrangements for the reform of the science and technology system, and more breakthrough policies are expected to be launched to help build a policy system and a good environment that supports high-level science and technology self-reliance and self-reliance.
3. Consumption and investment
Consumption and investment will continue to be the main engines of economic growth this year. ** The Economic Work Conference proposed that it is necessary to stimulate potential consumption, expand profitable investment, and form a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other. A series of policy deployments aim to expand effective demand, optimize and promote the balance between consumption and investment, and enhance the main driving force of internal circulation.
Where is the potential for consumption?In new consumption fields such as digital consumption, green consumption, and health consumption, it is also in new consumption growth points such as smart home, entertainment and tourism, sports events, and domestic "trendy products".
Pro-consumption policies appear in the list of key tasks of various departments in 2024. Many ministries and commissions mentioned boosting bulk consumption such as new energy vehicles and electronic productsThe relevant departments plan to designate 2024 as the "Year of Consumption Promotion", continue to carry out a variety of consumption promotion activities, and create more new scenarios for the integration of business, tourism, culture and sports.
How can we scale up profitable investments?On the one hand, it is necessary to make good use of all kinds of funds to strengthen project construction. We will make good use of the 1 trillion yuan of additional investment in the issuance of treasury bonds and local special bonds, and increase investment in the fields of modern industrial system, key core technology research, and new infrastructure, so as to further improve the accuracy and effectiveness of investmentOn the other hand, it is necessary to make greater efforts to stimulate private investment. Promote the implementation of the new mechanism of social capital cooperation, and encourage more private capital to participate in the construction of major national engineering projects and projects to make up for shortcomings.
This year's expansion of domestic demand is particularly emphasized in "forming a virtuous circle in which consumption and investment promote each other", which means that various departments will focus on promoting domestic demand in areas that can promote consumption through investment, such as the construction of "three major projects" and infrastructure construction to promote consumption transformation and upgrading.
In the opinion of experts, this year will also speed up the improvement of residents' consumption capacity through tax cuts, increase public spending and other means, and stimulate potential consumption. At the same time, by improving the investment environment, encouraging scientific and technological innovation and industrial upgrading, we will guide and stimulate profitable investment and strive to expand domestic demand. In the long run, this will help promote the transformation of economic growth from investment-dependent to consumption-driven, and lay a solid foundation for high-quality development.
Fourth, reform and opening up
2024 is the 46th anniversary of China's reform and opening up, and it is also a key year for the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan. **The Economic Work Conference proposed to "promote in-depth reform and high-level opening-up as a whole, continuously liberate and develop social productive forces, and stimulate and enhance social vitality", releasing a clear signal that reform will not stop and opening up will not stop.
At present, it is necessary to overcome some difficulties and challenges to further promote the economic rebound. There are blockages in the domestic circulation, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of the external environment have risen. The more difficulties and challenges we face, the more we must seek impetus for reform and vitality for opening up.
In the future, we should focus on planning a new round of comprehensively deepening reform and opening up from the perspective of the system concept and the overall situation, grasp the major reform tasks, overcome difficulties, and break down the obstruction points that restrict development.
Judging from the signals revealed recently, the direction of reform has been clear: continuously improve and implement the "two unwavering" system and mechanism, and fully stimulate the endogenous power and innovation vitality of various business entities;In-depth implementation of the reform of state-owned enterprises to deepen and upgrade the action, enhance core functions, improve core competitiveness;Plan for a new round of fiscal and taxation system reform and implement the reform of the financial system.
Looking back on history, fiscal and taxation reform has played a role as a "pawn" in all major reforms in China. According to the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Finance, the next step will be to strengthen planning and top-level design, and actively and steadily promote tax reform.
In order to promote the development and growth of private enterprises, in 2024, China will implement a number of measures in terms of market access, factor acquisition, fair law enforcement, and protection of rights and interests. People in the industry believe that this will be conducive to the private economy to travel lightly and accelerate its development.
In terms of expanding high-level opening-up, there will also be a number of measures in 2024: expanding intermediate goods**, services**, digital**, and cross-border e-commerce exports;Relax market access for service industries such as telecommunications and medical care.
5. Confidence and confidence
On the whole, the favorable conditions facing China's development are stronger than the unfavorable factors, and the basic trend of economic rebound and long-term improvement has not changed. ”
Everyone remembered the hardships of the year, and they were also full of confidence in the future. This year's pace, we have walked very confidently. It is necessary to comprehensively deepen reform and opening up, further boost confidence in development, and enhance economic vitality......."
In the past year, important progress has been made in the construction of China's modern industrial system, new breakthroughs have been made in scientific and technological innovation, reform and opening up have been promoted in depth, the foundation for safe development has been consolidated and consolidated, people's livelihood has been effectively guaranteed, and China's economic ship has continued to move forward in the wind and waves.
Only when you have faith in your heart can you go far.
Where does confidence and confidence come from?from the long-term trend of China's economic development. When looking at a country's economic development, we should look at the "shape" and, more importantly, the "potential". The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently increased China's GDP growth from 5% in 2023 and 4% in 20242% to 54% and 46%；The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has put China's GDP growth rate in 2023 from 51% to 52%。Many international figures said that China's economy has contributed one-third of global growth for many years in a row and is still the biggest engine of global economic growth today.
Confidence and confidence come from the new momentum of China's innovation and development. At present, the strategic emerging industries represented by the new generation of information technology, biotechnology, high-end equipment, and green environmental protection are developing rapidly, and the proportion of "new three" exports such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and new energy vehicles has increased significantly, and high-tech, high value-added, and green transformation products have become new export growth points.
The faith is strong, and the farther the action.
Looking forward to the future, with the institutional advantages of the socialist market economy, the demand advantage of the super-large-scale market, the supply advantage of a well-equipped industrial system, and the human advantages of the vast number of industrious and intelligent laborers and entrepreneurs, as long as the advantages and vitality of all aspects are truly stimulated, we will be able to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern and always remain invincible in the fierce international market competition and the strategic game of major powers.