The electric vehicle market as a whole is going up, and there is an anti-Matthew effect, in the pattern of a super and many strong, the power of the princes has become stronger, and the "one super" is relatively weakened.
Text: "Autobots" Huang Yaopeng.
If December 1 is divided into two parts, with 17:00 as the boundary, before the release of November sales of electric vehicle companies, there is a high probability that the results are gratifying, and they are satisfied;Released after this may not be as good as it could be.
A few families are happy and a few are sad
In the first echelon, Aion sold 41,567 vehicles in November, a year-on-year increase of 45%, and almost no change from the previous month. Aion's cumulative sales from January to November exceeded 4340,000 units.
The ideal sales volume was 41,030 units, a year-on-year increase of 1729%, an increase of 15%。The good news is that the annual target of 300,000 units was achieved ahead of schedule.
In the second echelon, Xpeng delivered 20,041 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 245%, and did not move month-on-month, exceeding 20,000 vehicles for two consecutive months.
Wenjie rose strongly, delivering 18,827 vehicles, an increase of 48% month-on-month, and exceeding 10,000 units for two consecutive months.
Leapmotor delivered 18,508 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 130%, and there was no movement month-on-month.
NIO delivered 15,959 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 126%, a slight increase from the previous month**.
ZEEKR delivered 13,104 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 19%, from a fierce rush to a bit of a tepid feeling.
Nezha seems to have encountered a bottleneck, delivering 12,506 vehicles, which is a reasonable result, but it fell to 1The step of 20,000 vehicles is weak, and seeing that the opponents are running for 20,000 vehicles, there may be a sense of loss.
In the third echelon, VOYAH is worth mentioning, with sales of 7,006 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 365% and a month-on-month increase of 155%, achieving 6 consecutive increases, still maintaining a monthly growth rate of 1,000 vehicles. It seems that the operation has been straightened out, and the volume of products has also increased.
Zhiji made the list for the first time, with sales of 8,703 units, which is quite impressive. In addition, AVATR sold 4,080 vehicles and Skyworth sold 3,936 vehicles.
As of 20:00 on December 1, DENZA sales have not yet been released.
The head also has to be reduced in price**
Since the beginning of this year, the first battle has been open all year round, and in the last month, it is even more intensive. There are those who chase the annual sales target, those who save the declining trend, those who bid for the marketing actions of competing products, and those who are novices who come up to fight.
If you really want to go on the strength, you still look at BYD. On November 24, BYD announced preferential policies for some models (5,000 to 15,000 yuan), which can be superimposed with the discounts in early November. As a result, BYD dropped twice a month. However, BYD said at the time that the discount would end at the end of November.
In the middle of November, BYD's sales fell to the level of 50,000 units, and you must know that in October, it sold 300,000 units. Now BYD is under more internal pressure:
One is the task of having 3 million vehicles a year, which once seemed to be able to reach it on tiptoe, but now it seems that it must be a big name;
The other is that Huawei has recently done a lot of things in the field of intelligence with Changan and Chery, and intelligent driving has become a label for models with more than 200,000 yuan. The BYD 2 3 product is below 200,000 yuan, and the higher it goes, the more intelligent driving is needed. Now it is a bit thin to rely on the Denza N7 alone. BYD has made efforts to catch up with intelligent driving, but to see the actual results, we have to wait, but the market waits for no one.
The secondary market's perception of BYD has also reversed. In the past few days, the stock prices of BYD and CATL, the two benchmarks of new energy, have returned to 2021. At least it shows that investors believe that the first war will continue for 3 or 5 years (this is also Wang Chuanfu's view), and although BYD has an advantage in cost, product sequence, and channel sinking, it is now also in a bitter battle, because the opponent is strengthening.
If you compare the data from the first week of the year with the second week of November, you can see that the situation is changing.
In the field of pure electric vehicles, at the beginning of the year, BYD's market share was 378%；By mid-November, BYD's market share had become 291%, it seems that the market share has fallen, but in fact, BYD's sales have more than doubled. This shows that pure electric power as a whole is going up, and it has produced an anti-Matthew effect, in the pattern of one super and many strong, the power of the princes has become stronger, and the "one super" is relatively weakened.
In the field of hybrid + range extension, this trend is more obvious. At the beginning of the year, BYD's market share was 64%, and it was in the limelight for a whileIn mid-November, the share was 359%, almost half, while absolute sales have decreased by only a few hundred units. The heroes rose together, and the throne was in jeopardy, which was quite a bit of the meaning of the princes of the Eighteenth Route begging Dong Zhuo.
There are chasing soldiers in the back, and hungry tigers in front. If BYD does not have a sense of crisis, it will inevitably be too big.
This price reduction logic is completely tenable, but it only lasts for 1 month, and it seems that it is difficult to achieve results. On December 1st, sure enough, the discount continued, and some models were added. It seems that even if it is a leading new energy vehicle company, its hard mouth does not hinder its softness.
Traffic is difficult to bring sales
Cutting prices will certainly drive down profit margins, but it's better than lying flat and dying. Many new cars are on the market, emphasizing how many orders and orders there are, and the reference value may have to be discounted.
The order can be swiped, but it doesn't matter if you cheat ** (** is almost immune now), the main thing is not to cheat yourself. It is very simple for manufacturers to verify the authenticity of orders, as long as they see how many offline channels they have, a total of more than 100 stores, and 20,000 orders (not counting direct orders on the official website), it would be naïve if the main engine factory could believe it. As long as you look at the user's online activity, you can know that if you don't make a return visit**, the original form of swiping orders will be immediately revealed.
It would be good to have 50% of the conversion of orders to sales, and it must also be able to produce capacity, which cannot be delayed for too long. It's not 2021, and customers don't run with a 3-month lead time.
At present, not only BYD is cutting prices, but on December 1, four or five brands announced preferential policies. The top players in the market have all reduced their prices to some extent, and the difference is in the style of concealment and openness. Like Tesla, it rose twice first, with a total of only 3,000 yuan, and then the insurance subsidy of 8,000 yuan ate all the gains and was rich, playing so fancy, the tone still hasn't changed.
In the past, the new forces only had one or two main sales models, and they returned well water to each other without violating river water. Now that the product matrix is basically complete, and the channels have been rolled out (sinking is of course not enough), it is inevitable to meet each other.
In terms of social networking, popularity (not to mention which product is better or worse), aside from traditional car companies, Tesla, Wenjie, and Ideal have a high degree of attention, while Xiaopeng, Weilai, Zeekr, and Denza are close behind. Interestingly, Leap and Nezha also sell well, but they just lack traffic.
It is worth mentioning that this traffic differentiation is not obvious and can change at any time. For example, the question world has always been half red and not black, and it suddenly became popular in September this year. Does traffic equate to sales?It was difficult to say before, and in 2024 there may be some linear relationships. Brands that no one pays attention to are more motivated to use ** to convince consumers. Look at it this way, there are still fights in ** battles.
Monster Petri dish
In November, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the manufacturing PMI was 494. It is still falling, which means that the market sentiment is still weak.
At this stage, if the domestic passenger vehicle production capacity is full, 43 million can be produced, but the national consumption is only more than 23 million.
There are two ways out of the rich production capacity: export and shorting. This year's automobile exports are expected to reach more than 4 million units, which is quite good, but there is still an order of magnitude difference between the digestion capacity.
In order to make use of the fixed investment as much as possible, everyone had to live and die. The domestic market is mainly fighting for the speed of technology iteration and production efficiency, and the current battle is the externalization of this competition, at the cost of the deterioration of the balance sheet.
In terms of technology, new forces and traditional car companies that have responded quickly have already set their own routes. In China, the rules of the game are more and more inclined to technology and design. The result of everyone continuing to do this is to roll out a large number of product monsters with super high iteration speed.
The update speed of models on the same platform is now refreshed to about 6 months by new forces, and some car companies will press the project to a small batch of trial production cycle to 3 months. For multinational brands, this number is too much. For most markets in the world, a new product, from project approval to mass production, 5 years is considered normal, and 3 years is considered fast.
In November, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated the reason for the countervailing of new energy vehicles in China: "China's various subsidies have caused overproduction of new energy, and these excess capacity are pouring into Europe, which will destroy Europe's industrial foundation." "Although there are different views on subsidies, the new energy power of China and the EU is no longer equal, and there is no problem that restrictions outside the market rules must be used.
Obviously, the volume is not meaningless. In the future, it may constitute a dimensional blow to multinational brands that cannot participate in competition. This is true in November, and it is also true throughout the year. There seems to be no end in sight to this battle, but the final moment, which often comes suddenly, does not give people time to prepare. 【Copyright Notice】This article is the original manuscript of "Autobots", and it is not allowed to be unauthorized **.