The property market is regaining signalsRen Zeping continues to pay attention to the changes in the situation
Signs of recovery in the real estate market and data analysis.
Recently, the property market has shown some signs of recovery, especially in November, when the transaction volume of the second-hand housing market in first-tier cities increased significantly. According to the data of 58 major cities, the year-on-year growth rate of the transaction area of first-hand houses in November was -19%, but the month-on-month growth rate was 133%；The year-on-year growth rate of second-hand housing transaction volume was 353%, with a month-on-month growth rate of 17%。From the perspective of specific cities, such as Shenzhen, the transaction area of second-hand housing increased by 1 year-on-year06%, the online subscription of second-hand housing in Beijing increased by 17% year-on-year8%。These data show that the real estate market showed clear signs of recovery in November, especially the recovery of the second-hand housing market, which has played a role in boosting the new housing market.
The performance of first-tier cities and the second-hand housing market.
Tier-1 cities play an important role in the recovery of the property market. Compared with Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the property market in Beijing and Shanghai is more stable. Despite the lack of significant favorable policies in November, the online transaction volume of second-hand homes in Beijing reached 12,545 units, up 178%, up 167%。This figure exceeds the monthly transaction volume under normal circumstances, indicating that the circulation of Beijing's second-hand housing market is normal, and the market is within the normal range of uneven hot and cold. At the same time, the online transaction volume of second-hand houses in Shanghai also increased by 12% compared to the previous year. It can be seen that the demand for the real estate market in first-tier cities is still strong, whether it is from the perspective of population, resources, etc., or from the perspective of the market's attention to whether housing prices are suitable, all reflect the vitality of the real estate market in first-tier cities.
Positive signs of a recovery in the real estate market.
The signal of the recovery of the real estate market may bring confidence and expectations to the market more important than its actual effect. This reversal can spur market dynamism and investment, especially during a downturn. In addition, the rebound of the real estate market also provided an indicator for subsequent policy formulation, and while the trading volume increased, the number of advertisements was gradually digested, that is, the market gradually restored the balance between supply and demand in the real estate market. The current political orientation is mainly focused on whether the purchase restriction policy in first-tier cities should be relaxed, but the author believes that the purchase restriction policy should be completely canceled and returned to the market. The purchase restriction policy violates the law of population migration and wrongly undermines the reasonable demand for new home purchases and the demand for fair changes. As economist Ren Zeping has appealed, now is a good opportunity to lift purchase restrictions.
Reflections and conclusions on the recovery of the real estate market.
While the signs of a recovery in the property market have given the market some hope, we can't be too optimistic. The ** of housing prices does not really reflect the cold and warm of the property market, and the growth of transaction volume can reflect the real situation of the market. Therefore, we do not have to worry too much about the property market has bottomed out, but should pay more attention to the city, the location, and the developer when making a purchase decision according to our own strength and needs. In addition, the policy should fully cancel the purchase restriction and return to the market to promote the healthy development of the property market. Although the recovery of the property market is good, it should also be treated with caution and not be overly relaxed.
In short, the signs of the recovery of the property market are particularly obvious in first-tier cities, and the growth of the second-hand housing market has also brought new hope to the property market. However, in the process of the property market recovery, we should remain calm and rational, not blindly chasing the rise, but should choose a real estate that suits our own conditions and needs. **The department should also continue to pay attention to the trend of the property market and introduce corresponding policies to promote the healthy development of the property market. It is hoped that the real estate market will continue to recover and provide more choices and opportunities for the majority of home buyers.