With the continuous development of the global economy, the share of international payments has become an important indicator to evaluate the status of currencies. According to the latest SWIFT report, the renminbi's share of global payments fell by 011 percentage points. This decline has raised eyebrows, and one of the possible reasons for this is Russia's changing payment behavior.
Over the past few months, the renminbi's share of global payments has been on an upward trajectory. However, October data showed that the share of the renminbi had declined. What is the reason for this change?A study of SWIFT's report reveals a number of clues related to Russia.
According to the SWIFT report, of the 15 economies where the offshore yuan is used the most, Russia "disappeared" in the October report. However, we can rule out the possibility that Russia will stop using the yuan as a settlement currency, since Russia has strengthened its external relations with China since last year's "break" with Europe and the United States, and in many scenarios has used the yuan instead of the euro and the dollar. So why is Russia no longer present in the October report?
There is news that earlier this year Putin announced that Russia would voluntarily break away from SWIFT and stop using the system for international ** settlements. Although this news has not yet been confirmed, we can speculate on the possibility from the side. Putin may order a complete departure from the European and American financial systems in order to avoid sanctions. As a result, even if a few Russian banks can still use SWIFT for settlement, they are switching to other channels for international** payments.
This change has had an impact on the renminbi's share of global payments. According to the data, Russia used the offshore yuan with a weight of 2 in August62%, and in October it was zero. This change in the share of global payments has almost decreased by 01%, compared to a real decline of 011% matched.
However, it should be emphasized that Russia's separation does not mean that the renminbi will be excluded from the payment and settlement currency, but that Russia will no longer use SWIFT, resulting in the use of renminbi settlement between China and Russia** cannot be counted. In the first ten months of this year, the total amount between China and Russia was 1379 trillion yuan, a large part of which is settled in yuan. It is likely that these transactions were carried out through the CIPS system developed by the Central Bank of China or the payment system operated by the Central Bank of Russia, which are not within the scope of SWIFT's statistics. Therefore, this part should be the largest extra-statistical renminbi international**.
Overall, although the renminbi's share of global payments declined slightly in October, it was not the result of Russia cessing to use the renminbi as a settlement currency. On the contrary, Russia's initiative to break away from SWIFT has led to the inability to count the use of RMB settlement between China and Russia, which is an important reason for the decline.
In the long run, the international status of the renminbi is still improving and playing an increasingly important role. The fluctuation of the renminbi's share of global payments is normal and affected by various factors. In the continuous evolution of the global economic landscape, China's economic strength and international influence are constantly increasing, which will further promote the internationalization of the RMB.
Overall, Russia's change in payment behavior is one of the possible reasons for the decline in the share of global payments in the RMB. However, it should be emphasized that this does not mean that the renminbi has lost its international status, but rather plays an increasingly important role on a global scale. With the rapid development of China's economy and the continuous improvement of its international status, the internationalization process of RMB is bound to continue to advance. Therefore, we have reason to believe that the share of global payments in the RMB will continue to grow in the future.