In 2024, a series of conflicts and wars may break out again in the Middle East, for which we can conduct some ** and analysis. First of all, the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to escalate, along withCrimeaPeninsulaRussian NavyAssets are once again subject to Ukrainian air strikes, and Russia is likely to carry out large-scale retaliatory actions against Ukraine. Secondly, the war between Israel and Hamas continues, and Israel is launching a siege against Hamas towards its stated goals, possibly more intense and on a larger scaleMilitaryLet's go. Finally, there is also the possibility of a maritime conflict in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf, led by the Yemeni HouthiArmedChanges in the maritime security situation triggered by the seizure of civilian vessels destined for Israel could lead to a spiral out of control in the maritime security situation in the Middle East.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict has been going on for quite some time, and tensions between the two sides have been going on for a long time. withCrimeaPeninsulaRussian NavyAssets are once again under Ukrainian air strikes, and Russia is likely to launch a stronger counterattack against Ukraine. This may include air strikes by drones and land, sea and airMissiles, causing more serious damage and losses to Ukraine.
And the dilemma facing Ukraine is enormous. Although Ukraine at one time expected the summer ** to reverse the situation, in reality Ukraine did not gain much from this war. Moreover, the United States has not yet approved the 2024 aid bill for Ukraine, which creates great uncertainty about the fate of Ukraine. If Ukraine does not receive such a huge amount of aid, it will be difficult to continue the confrontation with Russia. This will also lead to limited European support for Ukraine. As a result, the Russia-Ukraine conflict could end at an accelerated pace or further expand in 2024.
The war between Israel and Hamas has been going on for quite some time, and hostile relations between the two sides have long been formed. Israel has been committed to eliminating Hamas, controllingGazaand completely purge fromGazathreats. At the moment, the Israeli army is rightGazaThe siege was carried out in the north of the city, and the Khan Younis area in the south was also subjected to intensified air raids. Although Hamas bravely resisted in isolation, with the support of the United States, Hamas could not defeat Israel in any case, and the gap in strength between the two sides was too great.
It is worth noting that Israel and LebanonAllahThere is also a potential risk of conflict in the hostile relationship. LebanonAllahArmedAll the time with IsraelMilitaryconflict, and accompanyingGazaHamas's "Al-Aqsa flood" operation,AllahwithIDFThe firefight also escalated. The situation in Lebanon is also unstableAllahIn fact, it replaced Lebanon** as the ruling authority for most of the region. In this case, Israel andAllahThere is a risk that the current conflict could be amplified and used to alleviate the domestic pressures they face. And, if the conflict breaks out again in Syria, Lebanon is likely to be affected.
In the past, security issues in the Middle East were mainly concentrated in the Arabian Peninsula and rarely involved maritime security issues. However, due to the Yemeni HouthisArmed(And Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which may be blamed by the West.)NavyAttacks on Western merchant ships, the situation with maritime security has changed. Sent by Western countriesNavyships carry out escorts, and these Western ships in turn become new targets for the Houthis and Iran. Once the conflict at sea escalates to the point where ships are fighting each other, the maritime security situation in the Middle East will get out of control. The United States has said that as long as the HouthisArmedAttacks on merchant ships continuedU.S. militaryAn assault on the Houthis is not ruled outArmedofMissilesLaunch site. As a result, large-scale outbreaks in the Red Sea region could occur at any timeMilitaryConflict.
To sum up, in 2024, three wars may break out in the Middle East. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is likely to escalate, the conflict between Israel and Hamas is likely to continue, and maritime conflicts in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf are likely. These conflicts have their own causes and backgrounds, as well as their own impactsInternationalThe influence and intervention of forces. For the Middle East, these wars will bring new turmoil and uncertainty.