Not long ago, Wang Zhongqiu, director of the China Institute of Fine Management, issued a ** saying that the thinking that young people do not have children is correct. Contemporary young people are reluctant to have children, mainly due to three major pressures: they do not know their future, they see life more thoroughly, and they are not sure about the growth of their children. He believes that there should be enough understanding of the current young people's reluctance to have children, which is the real responsible attitude.
I have a different view of Wang Zhongqiu's view, and I think that the thinking that young people do not have babies is not right or wrong. Let me make a detailed analysis.
If the thinking that young people don't have babies is correct, then I should support young people not having babies, but I don't support young people not having babies.
If the thinking that young people don't have babies is wrong, then I should criticize young people for not having babies, but I don't criticize young people for not having babies.
So, why don't I criticize young people for not having children? Because in modern society, with the improvement of social pension security, more and more people do not rely on "raising children to prevent old age". And, the cost of raising a child is rising. From the perspective of economic interests, in China, for most families, the parents' efforts to raise their children in their lifetime are greater than the return to their parents in the child's life. Since most families have "negative returns" in giving birth to and raising children, there is nothing to blame for young people who do not have children, because individuals generally seek advantages and avoid disadvantages.
So, why don't I support young people not having children? Because if the vast majority of young people do not have children, it is not in the long-term interests of the country and society. If the fertility rate of a country's population is consistently and consistently below replacement level, the end result is population extinction. In the past two years, China's total fertility rate has been only half of the replacement level. I have talked about the dangers of long-term low fertility in many previous articles, and I will not repeat this article.
Therefore, young people do not have babies, and from a personal point of view, they seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, which is beyond reproach. However, from the perspective of the state and society, if the fertility rate is too low for a long time, it will not be conducive to the long-term development of the country and society. In the book "Population Crisis" published in 2013, there is an article entitled "Giving Birth to Children is a Contribution to Society", which analyzes this issue.
In current China, the cost of giving birth and raising children is mainly borne by the family, but after the child grows up and joins the workforce, it has to pay taxes for the country and serve the society, and for the country and society, having a baby is a "positive benefit". Therefore, it is necessary for the state to introduce policies to support childbirth and reduce the burden of childbirth on young people.
In April last year, Chen Wenling, chief economist of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, attended the 2023 China International Consumer Products Expo and delivered a keynote speech. Chen Wenling said that it is wrong for young people not to have children. According to Becker's economist's behavioral economics, children are also consumer goods, and children are long-term consumer goods, durable consumer goods that can bring you long-term returns. So, it's not right for young people not to have children, you don't have a long-term cycle of consumer durables, and it's worth more than you buy other consumer goods.
I don't agree with Chen Wenling's "birth" of young people. In my opinion, it is a matter of national policy to give birth; For experts, it should be recommended that the state introduce policies that are conducive to childbearing and share the cost of childbirth for families; But experts have no responsibility to encourage young people to have more children, nor should they blame young people for not having children, because in the current reality, having more children is a "negative benefit" for families.
A few months ago, I wrote an article "Whether you have children or not has nothing to do with whether you are kind or not", and I saw many netizens on the Internet quoting Zhang Ailing's words to defend not having children: "If a child is born to inherit his labor, panic, and poverty, then not having a child is also a kind of kindness." I have also seen many times on the Internet that people have made statements like this: "If you can't provide good living conditions for your children, don't have children!" If you can't give the child happiness, don't give birth to the child! Poor people shouldn't have children! ”
For thousands of years, natural and man-made disasters such as disease, famine, and war have always accompanied human beings, and there are few peaceful days, and the vast majority of people cannot provide good living conditions for their children. I think that for every family, whether poor or rich, it can neither be said that having children is a kind of kindness, nor can it be said that not having children is a kind of kindness. Whether or not to have children and how many children to have is the right and freedom of every person or family, and whether or not to have children should not be used as a criterion for judging whether a person or a family is kind.