Financial data is off to a good start! In January, new credit and social finance hit a record high in the same period in history, and large state-owned banks made big moves! Docking more than 8,200 real estate projects After the Spring Festival, domestic oil prices were adjusted or strandedXinhua News Agency:Premier Li Qiang presided over the third plenary meeting on February 18Discuss the work report to be submitted to the second session of the 14th National People's Congress for deliberation, and mobilize to do a good job in the beginning of the year。Li Qiang pointed out that reporting to the National People's Congress is the statutory duty of the people, and the formation of a high-quality work report plays an important role in gathering consensus and strength of all parties. It is necessary to actively respond to social concerns, fully listen to the opinions of all quarters, and further revise the report.
The Paper:On February 18, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement saying that in order to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity in the banking systemCarried out 105 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operations and 500 billion yuan of medium-term lending facilities (MLF) operations, and the winning interest rate was the same as that of the previous period。In view of the expiration of 499 billion yuan of MLF in February, the central bank renewed the MLF in a small amount today.
Finance Associated Press:Local time on Tuesday (February 13).The latest announcement of the U.S. headline inflation rate fell less than expected, and failed to enter the "2 era" as the market hoped。Specific data released by the U.S. Department of Labor showed that the seasonally adjusted consumer price index (CPI) in the United States rose by 03%, the largest increase since September last year, higher than December last year and market expectations of 02%。This led to a year-on-year increase of 31%, the lowest level since June 2023, but higher than the market expectation of 29 percent, compared to 3 in December last year4%。
Black**
Rebar:For the week ended Feb. 16,Rebar production decreased for the eighth consecutive week, the factory warehouse increased for the fourth consecutive week, the social treasury increased for the tenth consecutive week, and the table demand decreased for the sixth consecutive week。Thread output 192140,000 tons, a decrease of 4 from last week750,000 tons, a decrease of 241%；Thread factory warehouse 307620,000 tons, an increase of 72 from last week930,000 tons, an increase of 3108%；Thread Sheku 749140,000 tons, an increase of 89890,000 tons, an increase of 1364%；Thread table needs 6550,000 tons, a decrease of 11 from last week980,000 tons, a decrease of 1546%。(My Steel Net).
In 2024, China will follow the main direction of material upgrading and material substitutionContinue to promote the "steel application expansion plan".We will work closely with downstream industries such as construction, machinery, automobiles, shipbuilding, petrochemicals, and electric power to jointly develop steel products that adapt to the new characteristics of the industry and expand the application space of steel. (China Iron and Steel Association).
Iron ore:BHP Billiton Australian iron ore train drivers will strike for 24 hours on the following Friday due to disputes over working conditions and wages such as shifts and accommodation, according to a news release from the Australian Mining and Energy Union (MEU) on February 12 local time, and workers need to make sure a new agreement is reached. The strike is just the beginningThe action also includes a tentative plan to slow down some trains to no more than 30 kilometers per hour for seven days, starting this Saturday, February 17。During this time, train drivers will also be prohibited from operating work trains that transport repair materials, construction equipment, or fuel. The Paper:
Satellite data shows that between February 5 and February 11, 2024,The total iron ore inventory in the seven major ports of Australia and Brazil is 110960,000 tons, down 8360,000 tons, which is below the year-to-date average. (My Steel Net).
Coke:According to my steel network, after the Spring Festival holiday, the coke market will still run weakly. The low profit state of steel and coke enterprises is destined to be adjusted with the profits of coke and steel enterprises, although the steel mills are still expected to resume production after the year, but the low profits of steel mills are destined to be difficult for coke to improveIt is expected that there will be about 2 rounds of coke decline after the year. Finance Associated Press:
Agricultural products**
Palm Oil:According to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board MPOB news,Malaysia's export duty on crude palm oil remained at 8% in March 2024, but the reference price for March 2024 will be increased from 3571 in FebruaryMYR 39 was raised to 3,79394 MYR tons.
Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 492654 tonnes from February 1 to 15, according to data released by shipping survey agency SGSCompared with the 514,890 tons exported in the same period last month, it decreased by 43%。(Xinhua Finance).
Malaysia's palm oil exports from Feb. 1-15 were 500889 tonnes, according to Amspec, an independent inspection agency in MalaysiaThis is down 17 percent from the 604474 tonnes exported in the same period last month1%
Malaysia's palm oil exports from February 1-15 were 561614 tonnes, according to ITS, a shipping survey agencyCompared with the 629918 tons exported in the same period last month, it decreased by 1084%。(Xinhua Finance).
Soybeans:According to the consulting firm Safras,Brazil's 2023-24 soybean production is forecast at 149.1 billion tons。Finance Associated Press:
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Argentina's 2023-2024 soybean production forecast remains unchanged at 50 million tons, compared with the market expectation of 50.84 million tons; Brazil's 2023 and 2024 soybean production is expected from 15.7 billion tonnes downgraded to 15.6 billion tons, the market expectation is 1531.5 billion tons. (National Business Daily).
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA),U.S. 2023 2024 ending soybean stocks are expected to be 31.5 billion bushels, analysts expect 2846.3 billion bushels, USDA had expected 28 billion bushels. (National Business Daily).
Corn:According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA),U.S. ending corn stocks are expected at 217.2 billion bushels, analysts expected 21493.3 billion bushels, USDA was expected to be 216.2 billion bushels. Total U.S. ending wheat stocks are expected to be 65.8 billion bushels, analysts expected 6474.4 billion bushels, USDA was expected to be 64.8 billion bushels. U.S. ending cotton stocks are expected to be 2.8 million bales, compared to analysts' expectations of 2.86 million bales and USDA's previous estimate of 2.9 million bales.
According to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Argentina's 2023 and 2024 corn production is expected to remain unchanged at 55 million tons, compared with the market expectation of 55.59 million tons; Brazil's 2023 and 2024 corn production is expected from 12.7 billion tonnes to 12.4 billion tons, the market expectation is 1243.2 billion tons. (National Business Daily).
According to the survey data of the Ministry of Agriculture of UkraineUkrainian farmers plan to reduce the area sown to corn by 9% in 2024, which will increase the area planted with soybeans, sugar beets and rapeseeds, and the total area of spring crops in 2024 could be reduced by 500,000 hectares, or 3. year-on-year7%。Finance Associated Press:
Hogs:Behind the "freedom of consumption" of pork is the huge loss of listed pig companies last year. However, the pressure on related pig enterprises is expected to be eased in the second half of this year. "Judging from the downward trend of production capacity, the supply and demand situation in the second quarter of this year may improve to a certain extent. Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said in an interview with reporters. Finance Associated Press:
Colored
Lithium carbonate:Sigma Lithium, which is based in Vancouver, Canada, and mines and processes lithium primarily in Brazil, said in a statement Feb. 12It is planned to invest 4R$92.4 billion (approximately US$99.4 million) to expand the existing Grota do Cirilo spodumene projectto increase lithium concentrate production capacity through the construction of a new green lithium concentrate production plant. The Paper:
Industrial Silicon:The last week before the Spring Festival in the Year of the Dragon,The photovoltaic industry chain continues to diverge, and silicon materials are small。On the module side, due to the lack of many execution orders, ** stabilized, but still maintained a low price. According to the latest data disclosed by Infolink Consulting, the average transaction price of monocrystalline dense material this week was 68 yuan, which was **30%, the average transaction price of polysilicon granules was 61 yuan, 17%。This is the fourth consecutive week since 2024. 21 Finance)
Copper:Chile's EMOL news network recently reported that Chile's National Copper Company (CODELCO) will produce 1.42 million tons of copper in 2023A year-on-year decrease of 84%, the lowest level in 25 years。The Chilean Mining Commission has called on the state to continue to invest in the mineral sector in order to compensate for the decline in production caused by the decline in mineral quality, water scarcity and other factors. (Interface News).
The long-awaited mine life extension project at Antamina, one of the world's largest copper mines, is about to officially kick off. Peru's environmental regulator has granted it a license to start a $2 billion expansion project to extend the mine's productive life from 2028 to 2036, according to a recent statement on the company's website. The Paper:
Nickel:Due to the impact of nickel prices on local nickel companiesAustralia** officially included nickel metal in the support ranks。According to Australia's Department of Industry, Science and Resources (DISR) official *** Australia's federal resources minister Madeleine King issued a statement on February 16 that nickel will be included in the critical minerals inventory. This will give the currently struggling nickel miners the opportunity to fight for about 4 billion Australian dollars (about 18.8 billion yuan) of the federal *** interface news).
According to the IMF, Kazakhstan's ** reserves increased by 6157 tons, up to 300399 tons; Australia increased its holdings by 2986 tons to 79876 tons; The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) reduced its holdings by 4906 tons, to 218174 tons. Finance Associated Press:
Energizing**
The EIA** inventory in the United States for the week to February 9 was 120180,000 barrels,The increase in inventories was the largest since the week of Nov. 3 last year, expected 2.56 million barrels, previous value of 5.52 million barrels. Finance Associated Press:
Morgan Stanley willBrent*** for the first and second quarters of 2024 was raised to 82$5 barrel, raising Brent*** to $80 barrel for the third and fourth quarters of 2024. Finance Associated Press:
The IEA monthly report said that oil demand growth slowed, not OPEC+** increased. Global oil** growth will outpace demand growth in 2024. In 2024, global oil production will increase by 1.7 million barrels per day, reaching a record 103.8 billion barrels. Oil inventories are expected to "increase slightly" in the first quarter of 2024. The global oil demand growth forecast for 2024 was lowered to 1.22 million barrels per day, compared to the previous estimate of 1.24 million barrels per day. Finance Associated Press:
The International Energy Agency said it expects global oil demand to grow by 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2024; The oil market is expected to remain abundant and moderate in 2024. (Xinhua Finance).
Fuel oil:According to Enterprise Singapore (ESG), fuel oil inventories in Singapore fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 14to 2010A two-and-a-half-month low of 30,000 barrels。(Xinhua Finance).
Glass:A few days ago, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry of India issued an announcement saying that in response to the application submitted by Borosil Renewables Limited, a domestic enterprise in India, an anti-dumping investigation was launched on coated or uncoated textured tempered tempered glass (textured tempered coated and uncoated glass) originating in or imported from China and Vietnam. (Interface News).
Other**
Container European Line:According to statistics, in January, the operational efficiency of China's nine major ports was relatively stable, and due to the continuous impact of cold waves and strong winds, the average time of ships at port and at berth were 140 days, 086 days, down 3. month-on-month4% and 34%, which is better than the average container ships in port and berth in other 11 major foreign ports (216 days, 170 days). The operational efficiency of major ports in Europe and the United States fluctuates significantly. Among them, the European route is still plagued by the Red Sea crisis, the ships around the Cape of Good Hope have been delayed to arrive at European ports to varying degrees, the number of container ships calling has declined, and the average time of ships in the port of Hamburg in Europe is 232 days, down 83%；The average time a vessel is in port at the Port of Rotterdam is 199 days. The average time a vessel is at the port of New York, a major port in the eastern part of the United States, is 231 days, up 65%。(Shanghai Aviation Exchange).
According to the Belgian news agency, citing the country's diplomatic agency, the EU's escort operation in the Red Sea will be officially launched on February 19. The action plan lasts for one year and can be renewed. According to the report, it will still take several weeks from the official launch to the implementation of the specific escort mission. （*
According to Reuters and local ** reports, on February 17, local time, Yemen's Houthi spokesman Yahya Sareya said in a statement that the armed forces fired ** missiles at the British oil tanker "Pollux" in the Red Sea. (CCTV).
Brokerage China:The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently released its latest 13F report, and the holdings of U.S. stocks by a number of institutions in the fourth quarter of last year were officially released. In terms of the positions that have been disclosed,Long Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, the seven tech giants are currently the most crowded trades。In addition, pharmaceuticals have become the new favorites of a number of hedging, and some well-known alternative investment hedging positions, Chinese concept stocks and consumer stocks have also become the focus of attention.
CCTV News:Japan's nominal GDP fell out of the top three in the world and was overtaken by Germany。According to the preliminary statistics released by the Cabinet Office on February 15 local time, Japan's real gross domestic product (GDP) will increase by 19%, and the nominal growth rate of GDP reflecting prices** is 57%。According to Nippon TV, Japan's nominal GDP fell from third to fourth in the world, overtaken by Germany.
Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).