The first trading day of A-shares in the Year of the Dragon will open on February 19, and statistics show that the A** market has obvious "red February" characteristics. While many investors have been talking about spring restlessness and New Year's Eve since the end of last year**, the most certain time for spring restlessness is often only February.
Specifically, in the past 20 years, the Shanghai Composite Index has appeared in February for 15 years, with a probability of 75%, which is the highest probability month of the year. The average increase in February was 252%, the second highest average month after December. However, the probability of December is only 50%, and the average increase is mainly driven by two more than 20% in 2006 and late 2014, while the performance of other years is relatively average.
Judging from the historical performance of the scale index in February, the characteristics of "red February" are more obvious. In the past two decades, the probability of the SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in February has exceeded 63%. Among them, the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have the highest probability, both as high as 89%. The performance of small and mid-cap ** was significantly stronger than that of ** stocks in February. The SSE 50 rose by just 1 on average in February27%, CSI 300 is slightly better, but only 253%；The average increase of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 in February was respectively. 17%, far exceeding the performance of ** stocks in the same period.
Why are the characteristics of A-share "Red February" so obvious? From the perspective of calendar events, the events that affect the short-term changes in market expectations in February include the Spring Festival (generally at the end of January and early February), the national "two sessions" (generally at the beginning of March), and the release of annual reports and quarterly reports (concentrated in April). The mainstream view is that the "red February" may be due to the increase in liquidity and the boost in fundamental and policy expectations, which made investors' risk appetite significantly higher in February.
According to the Ping An research report, the probability of February is the largest, and the relevant influencing factors may involve three aspects: first, the capital is often looser after the Spring Festival, the short-end interest rate tends to fall, and institutional funds have gradually begun a new layout; Second, it is in a vacuum period of economic data and performance, and the pressure of market adjustment is not great; Third, before the "two sessions", policy expectations heated up and market risk appetite rose. It is for investors' information only and does not constitute investment advice
Article**: Oriental Wealth Research Center).