No developed country is developed by relying on the demographic dividend! This sentence reminds us that the sustainable development of a country cannot be achieved by relying solely on the dividend effect of population expansion.
The so-called demographic dividend refers to the economic growth effect brought by the population structure, the working-age population accounts for a relatively high proportion and depends on the number of population. Specifically, the expansion of the young working population means an increase in labor resources, which can promote rapid economic growth when the factor conditions are relatively sufficient.
Indeed, in the past period, developing countries have taken advantage of this demographic dividend effect to achieve high-speed economic growth. Taking China as an example, in the early days of reform and opening up, a large number of surplus rural labor force was transferred to cities and towns, becoming the labor input of industry and service industry, which led to the vigorous development of manufacturing and exports, and achieved rapid economic take-off.
However, the demographic dividend will eventually disappear. With the development of society, the fertility rate has declined, the population has aged seriously, and the proportion of young labor force has begun to decline. At this time, if a country's development is still too dependent on the demographic dividend, then growth is about to shrink and it may fall into the middle-income trap.
Canada, Russia, the United States and other developed countries with vast land areas have a much lower population than China. Their development does not depend on the demographic dividend, but on scientific and technological innovation, industrial optimization and upgrading, and institutional reform to achieve sustained and rapid economic growth.
In contrast, the demographic dividend is obviously time-bound, phased and unsustainable. True sustainable development must rely on innovation-driven development models such as scientific and technological progress, industrial transformation, and institutional innovation.
If a country wants to be truly rich and strong, it cannot simply rely on the expansion of cheap labor, but must improve total factor productivity, rely on innovation-driven, and promote the transformation of the economy from scale-based growth to quality-efficiency growth.
The effect of the demographic dividend is limited, and in order to achieve real sustainable development, it is necessary to promote the transformation of economic growth mode and rely on scientific and technological innovation and institutional reform as new growth drivers. At the same time, it is also necessary to link the population policy with the economic and social development policy to form a joint force and jointly promote the sustained and healthy development of the national economy.