While we are basking in the joy of festivities, the security situation in the international community remains very precarious. In Eastern Europe, the war between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for 24 months; In the Middle East, the Israeli-Palestinian war also lasted for more than four months; At the same time, the civil war in Sudan, far away in North Africa, has been going on for more than 10 months. Looking at the first half of 2024, there is no intention of stopping in the above three regions, especially in the context of tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and this long-term war is likely to continue until 2025, or beyond. There is a high hope that the three wars will turn their corners in the middle of this year, that is, around July.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, from the initial large-scale defensive war to the later positional war, no one has the strength to distinguish the winner in the short term. The balance of power between Russia and Ukraine will change to a certain extent after 2024. The sharp decline in the outside world's help to Ukraine has directly hit its combat effectiveness on the battlefield ahead, but Russia has recovered from the post-war decline, especially Russia's military industry, which has been greatly boosted after this war, and even Russia's economy has been greatly improved. With the recovery of the military industry and economy, Russia has also passed military power and military changes in wartime, and now it is able to withstand a long battle. While a protracted war is not a good idea, it is likely that Putin will take an important decision to deal a devastating blow to Ukraine after winning the second election, which will be an important turning point in the war.
The Israeli-Palestinian war lasted more than four months, and there were also wars outside the Gaza Strip. As far as the current situation is concerned, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will be difficult to complete in the near future until the Palestinian question is once and for all resolved. Some countries in the Middle East will also put pressure on Israel to try to find a way out. It now appears that the war in Gaza could take a turn this summer, but it will require all parties to work together.
Sudan has been at war for more than a decade, and the heart of Sudan is now a battlefield between the two countries. The situation in Sudan is similar to that in Libya, where war can lead to the separation of a people. While differences can bring temporary peace, they also exacerbate problems such as economic hardship. The future of Sudan is uncertain, but ordinary people can hope for peace for a while.
Under the current grim situation, all countries should strengthen cooperation with each other, work together to deal with various contradictions, and promote the realization of world peace and security.
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