After the dust settles in Indonesia, the biggest concern for the outside world is whether the newly elected Prabowo will continue Jokowi's foreign policy. During the election campaign, Prabowo was able to win, largely because of the cooperation with his son Raqqa, but also as a result of Jokowi's actual support.
This situation is reminiscent of the Philippines, where Marcos also cooperated with the daughter of his predecessor Duterte to win easily.
However, Marcos's performance after taking office, everyone has also seen, not only did he not inherit Duterte's governing philosophy, but broke with it.
It is worth mentioning that in these two **, Prabowo was not only a rival to Jokowi, but even caused a bloody conflict. In addition, Prabowo also has some historical problems, such as his participation in the 1998 Indonesian Chinese Exclusion**.
Considering that it has long been common for Prabowo to be Jokowi's first man, it is difficult not to suspect that this is an expedient measure made in order to win the election.
Indonesia's New**: Ally or Adversary? The results of Indonesia were announced, and Jokowi and Prabowo, two former rivals, are now allies. Prabowo's new beginning, however, could make him a target for countries that are not friendly to China.
In addition, changes in power often lead to instability of the regime, as policy direction and the distribution of power may change. So, while it's uncertain what choice Prabowo will make, many countries have already begun to plan ahead.
For example, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has congratulated Prabowo through social platforms after the results of Indonesia's ** were released, saying that India is willing to deepen cooperation with Indonesia and strengthen the comprehensive strategic partnership.
Considering India's recent presence in Southeast Asia, this move is worth noting. For India, the interests of Southeast Asia are related to its regional development strategy and are the key to realizing the "dream of a great power".
As a result, Modi announced shortly after taking office that he would upgrade the "Look East Policy" to the "Go East Policy", further deepening India's cooperation with ASEAN countries. For example, in 2018, India invited 10 ASEAN countries to New Delhi to participate in the meeting, saying that India and ASEAN share a close common destiny.
In order to balance China's influence in Southeast Asia, India has actively deployed in the region. At the economic level, India has signed the Cargo Agreement with ASEAN to liberalize both countries.
At the military level, India has strengthened security and defense cooperation with Southeast Asian countries, such as setting up intelligence monitoring stations and providing support to the Philippines
On the issue of disputes in the South China Sea, India cooperates with ASEAN countries that have territorial disputes with China and supports the legitimacy of the South China Sea arbitration bill.
However, India's maritime capabilities are not satisfactory, and not all ASEAN countries are confrontational. Even if India wants to intervene, Indonesia and other countries have been pushing for negotiations with China on a code of conduct in the South China Sea, leaving India with no opportunity to take advantage of it.
In the competition between India and China over Indonesia, India is trying to take advantage of the situation behind Indonesia to expand its influence in Indonesia by sending missiles to Indonesia.
However, China is ready to respond, and the Chinese ambassador to Indonesia congratulated him and exchanged "Wishing you prosperity" in Chinese, demonstrating the friendly relations between China and Indonesia and expressing China's determination to continue to strengthen friendly exchanges with Indonesia.
In addition, if Prabowo wants to turn the other cheek with China, the price to pay will be huge, because during the Jokowi administration, Indonesia achieved a period of rapid economic development and a harmonious situation through economic and trade cooperation with China.
India's actions remind us that in the future, we should strengthen our maritime military power and accelerate the formulation of a code of conduct in the South China Sea, so that people with ulterior motives will not take advantage of it.