Following 350 billion PSL,The property market has ushered in a "milestone good"! 
According to the "Economic Observer", the central bank recently approved 100 billion yuan of "housing rental group housing purchase loans", and eight pilot cities will be "first come, first served". The 8 cities included in the pilot are:Tianjin, Chengdu, Qingdao, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Changchun, Zhengzhou and Jinan. 
According to the Economic Observer, the main points of this "milestone positive" are as follows:
1. The 100 billion yuan loan mainly supports enterprises or institutions in 8 pilot cities to purchase stock of idle houses in bulk for dormitory-type affordable rental housing.
2. The annualized interest rate of this type of loan is about 3%, and the term is not more than 30 years. The main loan channels are seven state-owned banks, including China Development Bank and Bank of China.
3. The loan can only purchase residential commercial housing (including property right talent apartments), and commercial apartments are not allowed. At the same time, the acquisition of "the whole building and the whole unit" of the target project must be carried out, and the acquisition of scattered ** is not allowed in principle. In principle, the loan amount shall not exceed 80% of the appraised value of the property.
4. The house purchased with the loan must be a house with a clear legal relationship and has been completed and accepted. During the term of the loan, the lease purpose cannot be changed.
5. The term of this loan is up to 30 yearsAs long as the rent can cover the interest, it can basically be regarded as a perpetual bond, which only pays interest and does not repay the principalIt can not only effectively alleviate the pressure of the city's best indicators of raising rental housing, but also reduce the local commercial housing inventory. More importantly, in the short term, the local government can raise a sum of money through the urban investment platform to ease cash flow.
Let me say what I think. 
The reason why I call the "housing rental group housing loan" a "milestone benefit" is not only because it is an "innovation" that helps to destock, but also because it is basically printed in a directional manner to local ** and urban investment companiesIt is conducive to resolving the current three major risks - local debt risk, real estate risk, and small and medium-sized financial institution risk. As we all know, real estate has seen a historic inflection point. Nowadays, acquiring land, building houses, and selling houses are all risky things. In the past two years, the income from land sales has been declining across the country. In 2021, the income from the transfer of state-owned land in the country reached a record high of 871 trillion yuan; In 2022, it shrank to 6700 million yuan. Data for 2023 has not yet been released, but is estimated at 5About 6 trillion. Even this 56 trillion, and about half of it is supported by local urban investment companies. This is equivalent to the local ** selling the land from the left hand to the right hand, and the urban investment company takes the land to the local small and medium-sized bank for mortgages. As a result, the consequences of the real estate decline are: the interest rate on the debt of urban investment companies has risen, the collateral of small and medium-sized banks has been further landized and risked, and the entire real estate industry will be further depressed due to the increase in the amount of real estate. Now the "reinforcements" are coming, that is, the "housing rental group purchase loan", the 100 billion and 8 pilot cities, can only be regarded as the first batch, and will appear one after another in the future.
The money comes partly from PSL (Collateral Supplementary Loans) and partly from commercial bank loans, which charge an interest rate of around 3%. If the locality** maintains a financial balance, it needs to receive a rental return of around 3%.
China's residential ** is on the high side, and the rental return rate is generally around 1% to 2%, and it is difficult to reach 3%. The key to the sustainability of the "housing rental group home purchase loan" is that the rate of return must meet the standard. How to solve it? There are only two ways. 
First, since it is the first to help real estate companies to destock, then we will vigorously bargain and lower the acquisition.
If the purchase** can reach 60% of the record price, the rental return can be increased by 66%. Let's assume that the rental return before the discount is 15%, then the rental return of a 6% discount can reach 249%。
However, please note that this type of house is a "guaranteed rental housing", and the rent must be at least 9% off the market price, or even lower, so even if you buy a house at 6% or 5% off, it will not reach an annualized rate of return of 3%. At this point, the second trick is inevitable:Second, let time and inflation do the work to help the rental yields reach the target. If it is not 3% from the first year to the third year, it will be reached in the fourth and fifth years; If it is not reached, it will be achieved by the tenth year. Anyway, the loan term is up to 30 years, and it can also be turned into a perpetual bond. An average return of 3% is fine.
Therefore: only by letting the housing prices, rents, the cycle of investment, and the cycle of construction be played. If it's deflationary, I'm sorry, I can't play it. The reason why it is said to be a "milestone good" is also because it together with PSL's support for the transformation of urban villages, it constitutes a breakthroughThe central bank prints money to real estate.
In fact, central banks around the world are playing the same game. For example, the Fed has expanded its balance sheet by buying Treasury bonds and MBS (mortgage-backed bonds related to real estate), with two-thirds of the newly printed money buying Treasury bonds and one-third buying MBS. In December 2023, the central bank just gave 350 billion PSL to the three major policy banks, which is equivalent to issuing 350 billion yuan of base currency, which is mainly used to support the transformation of urban villages, and some of it may also be used for "housing rental group housing loans". 
There is also a part of the housing rental group purchase loan from commercial banks, which does not involve an increase in base money, but is conducive to the derivation of broad money M2.
The 350 billion PSL and the 100 billion "housing rental group housing loan" mean that the central bank has begun to print money to the real estate industry. Why are the first batch of "Housing Rental Group Housing Loans" in Tianjin, Chengdu, Qingdao, Chongqing, Fuzhou, Changchun, Zhengzhou and Jinan? Will it be expanded in the future?
The main reason is that the real estate inventory in these eight cities is relatively large, and the debt pressure of the local ** is relatively large. In the future, the pilot will be expanded to more than 40 major cities (cities with a permanent urban population of more than 3 million). The scale of the loan of 100 billion is just an appetizer, and it will definitely be expanded.
Can private real estate companies share this benefit?
It's possible, but it's not too likely.
Because the "housing rental group purchase loan" is not only for the property market to destock, but also to reduce the debt pressure of the local **, so that their funds can flow. In the past year or so, local urban investment companies have become the main force in land acquisition, supporting the land market and creating first-class income, but the debt ratio has also risen rapidly, trapping a lot of funds (manifested as inventory of land and houses). Therefore, when the local government acquires commercial housing for affordable housing, it will definitely give priority to the projects of urban investment companies, followed by the projects of central enterprises and private enterprises.
After obtaining this low-interest, long-term loan, the urban investment company can repay the relatively high-interest and short-term loans borrowed from local small and medium-sized banks, which is conducive to reducing the interest burden of the urban investment company, and is also conducive to the optimization of assets and the reduction of risks by small and medium-sized banks.
This is also good for the property market, after all, it promotes destocking, which is conducive to the return of funds and normal operation of the entire industrial chain.
Another important impact is that the proportion of private enterprises in the real estate industry will be further reduced, and the proportion of local urban investment will increase.