February** Dynamic Incentive Program
【Corn Market】
Yesterday, the Northeast corn purchase *** February 22, the Northeast corn purchase ***, including Heilongjiang Daqing, Jiamusi area rose 10 30 yuan ton, Jilin Changchun area rose 20 30 yuan ton. According to the first business in Jilin area, the current surplus grain of farmers is about 3 4 percent, and the enthusiasm of farmers to sell grain has increased after the holiday, but in recent days, there have been frequent news of profits, and most of the top businessmen have increased their enthusiasm for acquisition, and it is expected that farmers will complete sales before mid-March.
Imported barley ** still has a substitution advantage] According to the port ** businessman, COFCO, C&D and other domestic ** enterprises have recently imported barley in 2130 2150 yuan (3-5 months), with a basis of **C2405-280, compared with imported sorghum, the current imported barley still has a substitution advantage in the feed formula.
U.S. Corn *** On February 22, CBOT Corn ** March futures closed down 5 cents at 406 cents bushel; May futures closed 575 cents at 4185 cents bushels; July futures closed 4 cents lower at 45325¢ bushel, as there will be favorable rainfall in Argentina's agricultural regions, which will be good for corn growth.
Brazil's average daily corn exports increased by 15 percent year-on-year from Feb. 1 to 162%] Statistics from the Brazilian Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEx) show that from February 1 to 16, 2024, Brazil exported 1.46 million tons of corn, compared with 2.27 million tons in the whole month of February last year, with an average of 1460,000 tons, an increase of 152%, and the average export price was 267$4 tons, up from $298 in the same period last year$2 t**103%。
【Rice Market】
Rice by-products in the main producing areas weakened] After the Spring Festival, the rice market gradually recovered, there were not many market orders, and the supply of rice by-products was limited. Recently, many places across the country have continued to be in bad rain and snow weather, the operating rate of rice enterprises has generally been reduced, the output of by-products has decreased, and the demand has also been affected.
On February 22, the ex-factory price of oil bran in Jixi processing enterprises in Heilongjiang was 2,000 yuan, which was flat before the holiday, and fell by 100 yuan month-on-month; Jilin Dehui 2,400 yuan ton, Hubei Jingzhou 2,280 yuan ton, compared with the pre-holiday and last month; Anhui Chaohu 2,200 yuan ton, down 160 yuan from before the holiday and last month; Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province 2,300 yuan tons, flat before the holiday, 100 yuan tons month-on-month.
On February 22, the ex-factory price of broken rice in Jixi processing enterprises in Heilongjiang was 2,650 yuan tons, Jilin Dehui was 2,800 yuan tons, Anhui Chaohu was 2,840 yuan tons, and Hubei Jingzhou was 3,120 yuan tons, which was flat before the holiday and last month; Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province was 2,860 yuan tons, flat compared with before the holiday, and fell 100 yuan tons month-on-month. [USDA: Thailand's rice exports increased by 48% year-on-year in 2024 as of February 4] According to the report of the Counselor of the Overseas Agriculture Service of the United States Department of Agriculture, Thailand's total rice exports in 2024 were 8470,000 tons, an increase of 48% year-on-year. Thai rice exports*** were about 1% 3% in the week ended February 13 due to the lower Thai baht. In addition, domestic rice in Thailand fell by 3% and 4% week-on-week in the same period, as the ** merchants still hold a large amount of rice stocks and are waiting for the 2023 24 off-season rice to be harvested in late February.
Vietnam expects that there will still be a shortage of ** global rice in 2024] According to information from Vietnam's National Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fishery Quality Assurance, global rice production in 2024 may be close to 5200 million tons, while consumption is close to 52.5 billion tonnes, indicating a possible shortage of rice**, for which Vietnam will keep a close eye on the market and strive to stabilize the rice cultivation area at 7.1 million hectares by 2024, with rice production exceeding 43 million tonnes and rice exports reaching US$5 billion. Vietnam's rice exports in January were 5120,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4%, rice export revenue reached 3$600 million, up 7% month-on-month.
【Wheat Market】
On February 22, ordinary wheat (national standard second class, the same below) in Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province entered the factory **2,840 yuan tons, Hengshui 2,860 yuan tons, and Handan 2,870 yuan tons; 2,860 yuan ton in Xinxiang, 2,830 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, 2,860 yuan, Anhui Suzhou 2850 yuan ton, compared with the previous day **20 60 yuan ton. Shandong Dezhou 2800 yuan ton, Jinan 2820 yuan ton, Heze 2850 yuan ton; 2,800 yuan tons in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, were the same as the previous day.
First, the grassroots purchase and sales of wheat market have not yet fully recovered, and some grain holders are ready to wait until the new wheat market before the green and yellow period, and there is a slight increase in prices to promote the harvest of flour enterprises with replenishment needs. Second, there has been rain and snow in many places across the country recently, logistics and transportation have been blocked, and flour enterprises have fewer sources of grain. Third, this week, reserves at all levels have been rotated out one after another, and the auction reserve price has been higher than before the Spring Festival, with a high transaction rate and a large premium, which has boosted market sentiment. Fourth, the opening of schools and the resumption of work on construction sites have begun to stock up on group flour.
On February 22, China Grain Reserves Shandong Branch sold 29,965 tons of wheat from 2019 to 2022 at a competitive sale, all of which were sold; Among them, the reserve price of the auction was 2,740,2,800 yuan, and the transaction price was 2,760,2876 yuan, with an average premium of 63 yuan.
On February 22, U.S. wheat rose and fell, mainly due to the abundance of global wheat, and the market expects the United States to impose new sanctions on Russia, the world's number one wheat exporter. CBOT soft red winter wheat futures closed up 125 cents at 57925¢ bushel; KCBT hard red winter wheat for May delivery closed 3 cents lower at 57150¢ bushel; MGE hard red spring wheat for May delivery closed down 6 cents at 65550¢ bushel;
[Oils and oilseeds market].
This week's domestic vegetable oil futures spot *** driven by palm oil and other vegetable oils, since the Spring Festival, domestic vegetable oil *** February 22, Zhengshang vegetable oil 2405 contract *** 7814 yuan ton, compared with the previous day **80 yuan ton or 103%, cumulative after the Spring Festival**15%, cumulative since 2024**19%。In terms of spot, the **vegetable oil** in South China was 7680 7750 yuan tons, a fluctuation of -20 30 yuan tons from the previous day, and a total of 50 100 yuan tons this week.
According to monitoring, the vegetable oil inventory in Northeast and South China was 370,000 tons on February 16, the same as on February 2, down 10,000 tons from the same period last month, and a significant increase of 210,000 tons from the same period last year, which was at a high level in the same period in history.
Since the Spring Festival, Canadian rapeseed crushing profits have declined, while domestic rapeseed oil imported rapeseed crushing profits have turned positive. On February 22, Canada imported rapeseed CNF** 513 US dollars in March shipping schedule, and the dutiable price of 4441 yuan ton (9% import tariff, 9% value-added tax), down 70 yuan tons from before the Spring Festival (February 8, the same below), the crushing profit of Zhengshang 2405 contract disk was 36 yuan ton, up 163 yuan ton from before the holiday, and the spot crushing profit of Guangdong was 89 yuan ton, which was -26 yuan ton before the holiday.
This week, rapeseed imports to buy ships increased and the follow-up domestic rapeseed oil supply is still more] With the import of rapeseed crushing profits turned positive, enterprises rapeseed to buy ships increased, according to monitoring, since this week, China has added 7 rapeseed ships, mainly from April to June. According to the current purchase of ships, it is expected that about 250,000 tons of rapeseed will be imported in February, 350,000 tons in March, 420,000 tons in April, and there will still be more imported rapeseed in the later period, which will help enrich the supply of coastal rapeseed oil.
Yesterday, the main CBOT soybean contract fell to the lowest in nearly three years] On February 22, the Chicago ** Exchange (CBOT) soybean futures price *** of which the benchmark contract closed down 11%, down to its lowest level since December 2020, as U.S. soybean export demand remained weak as weather improved in South America. As of **, soybean futures **2 1325 cents, with March futures closing 13 cents lower at 114775¢ bushel; May futures closed 1250 cents at 115250¢ bushel; November futures closed 1075 cents at 1135 cents bushel.
Export Sales Report Preview: Net U.S. soybean sales are expected at 30.85 million tonnes last week] The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its weekly export sales report on Friday as Monday is a public holiday in the United States. The market expects the report to show that net U.S. soybean export sales for the week ending Feb. 15, 2024, were between 30.85 million mt. For comparison, U.S. 2023 24 soybean net sales in the week of Feb. 8 were 350,000 mt and 2024 25 net sales were 240,000 tons.
U.S. biodiesel exports and imports both grew in 2023] U.S. biodiesel exports totaled 840,000 tons worth $1.5 billion in 2023, compared with 800,000 tons worth $15$400 million. U.S. biodiesel imports totaled 1.7 million tonnes worth $2.8 billion in 2023, compared to 800,000 tonnes worth $14 in 2022$200 million.
Argentine farmers are slowing down the pace of selling new season soybeans] As of Feb. 14, Argentine farmers pre-sold 5.74 million mt of 2023 24 soybeans, 130,000 mt higher than a week ago and up from 3.73 million mt in the same period last year, statistics from the Argentine Ministry of Agriculture showed. For comparison, 300,000 tonnes were sold in the previous week. The main reason is that farmers are reluctant to sell according to the current **.
Yesterday's Malaysian Palm Oil Futures**] On February 22, the Malaysian Derivatives Exchange (BMD) crude palm oil futures ** strengthened the ringgit exchange rate due to weak export demand. As of **, crude palm oil futures ranged from RM15 to RM23, with the benchmark 2405 crude palm oil futures price of RM23 or 060% to close at RM3,878 tonnes, equivalent to 804$2 ton.
Singapore's Wilmar Group increased palm oil fresh fruit bunch production by 3% in the second half of 2023] Singapore's Wilmar Group (Wilmar) reported that the group's fresh fruit bunch production increased to 2.37 million tons in the second half of 2023, up 3% year-on-year, due to improved yields, according to its financial report submitted to SGX. Fresh fruit bunche production in FY2023 was 4.45 million tonnes, up just 04%。
Ukraine's total oilseed exports will decline in 2023] Ukrainian customs data shows that Ukraine's oilseed exports in 2023 will be 2.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, of which EU purchases account for 70% of the total value of all Ukraine's oilseed exports. In terms of varieties, the annual export volume of rapeseed was 3 million tons, lower than 3.1 million tons in 2022; Soybean exports reached 3.5 million tonnes, up from 2 million tonnes in 2022; Sunflower seed exports fell sharply to 800,000 tonnes from 2.8 million tonnes in the previous year.
Ukraine's total vegetable oil exports increased in 2023] Ukrainian customs data shows that Ukraine's soybean oil exports will increase to 300,000 tons in 2023, an increase of 26% year-on-year; Rapeseed oil exports reached 380,000 tons, a year-on-year surge of 476%. Sunflower oil remains Ukraine's top vegetable oil export, with exports reaching 5.7 million tonnes in 2023, up 34% year-on-year. However, in 2023, there will be a significant change in the ranking of the main buyers of Ukrainian vegetable oils, with Romania for the first time ranking at 17With a share of 7%, Turkey became the number one importer, with 150% share in second place, China with 11The 1% share is in third place.