**:Economy**.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its global economic growth forecast for this year, while significantly lowering the eurozone economic growth value. This suggests that the eurozone's economic growth, which has just passed by a technical recession, remains weak and is still bottoming out.
On January 30, the IMF released an update to the World Economic Outlook report, raising its global economic growth forecast for 2024 to 31%, 0. higher than the value in October last year2 percentage points. Some analysts have pointed out that the latest adjustment of the IMF reflects an upward revision of economic growth expectations for China, the United States, and some large emerging markets and developing countries.
However, the Eurozone's 2024 economic growth** value released this time is 09%, down 03 percentage points, in major developed economies** is now a significant decline. Weak growth in the eurozone reflects the continued impact of weak consumer sentiment, high energy** and weak manufacturing and business investment amid high interest rates.
Eurostat data, released on the same day as the IMF report, also confirmed that growth in the eurozone has come to a near standstill. According to the data, after seasonal adjustment, the eurozone economy in the fourth quarter of last year had zero growth quarter-on-quarter and increased by 01%。Some market institutions believe that this reflects that the eurozone economy is "barely out of recession", but after stagnation in the last quarter of last year, the eurozone economy will be difficult to achieve growth in the first half of this year.
At present, the deterrent effect of high interest rates on the eurozone economy is becoming more and more obvious. High interest rates continue to push up the borrowing and production costs of enterprises, forcing manufacturing companies to reduce investment, investment and consumption are suppressed, and many manufacturing companies in Europe are forced to stop production or move production lines, which in turn affects economic recovery.
This is already reflected in the data. The Eurozone preliminary manufacturing PMI came in at 46 in January6. It has been in the contraction range for the 19th consecutive month; The Eurozone services PMI was 484, the low point in the past 3 months; The combined PMI was 479. It has been lower than the boom and wither line for 8 consecutive months.
The European Central Bank's recent survey of bank loans in the euro area also showed that loan demand in the euro area weakened further in the fourth quarter of last year, with corporate loan demand and household demand for real estate loans and consumer loans declining. This reflects the dilemma of the sluggish recovery of the real economy and the lack of follow-up momentum. In addition, structural imbalances within the eurozone, lack of innovation capacity, and slow labor market reforms have also become important factors limiting the recovery.
Externally, the pressure on the eurozone economy continues to increase as geopolitical risks increase and inflation may rise again. In particular, the unstable situation in the Red Sea poses risks to Europe's economic outlook, energy** and prices. Some analysts have pointed out that if tensions in the Red Sea persist, the eurozone is expected to face the risk of higher energy costs, freight delays and a resurgence of high inflation.
In the eurozone, which is on the verge of recession, there has been a resurgence of calls for interest rate cuts in recent days. However, the European Central Bank held a monetary policy meeting on January 25 and decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged. ECB President Christine Lagarde said that there was a general consensus among council members that it was "too early to talk about a rate cut" and that the ECB would stick to data-driven decision-making.
Perhaps ECB policymakers need more convincing data to vote on whether to cut rates. However, it is not difficult to find that in this round of monetary policy changes and adjustments in Europe and the United States, the ECB's decision-making rhythm is closely related to the Fed and even follows suit. The impact of the Fed's monetary policy changes on the ECB cannot be ignored.
On January 31, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed would not cut interest rates anytime soon after the conclusion of his two-day monetary policy meeting. In this case, although the European market is eager to cut interest rates, the ECB may not have much choice. High interest rates will continue to stifle growth in the eurozone. (Lian Jun).