Shanhai: The non-agricultural sector in February has not broken the range, and this week**find direction in **in**!
First of all, I want to say that during the Spring Festival, there will be no rest or rest, and it will be normal to analyze and guide! Last week, we focused on the performance of the weekly data in February, and in the case of ADP's small non-farm data, the dollar went out of the market and appeared, while the non-farm payrolls data was the opposite, with a 35-year increase in non-farm payrolls in February30,000, although the previous value was revised upward to 3330,000, but it is still higher than the previous value, the largest increase since January 2023, on the one hand, the impact of the data itself. On the other hand, this time the non-farm payrolls revised upwards from last month's non-farm payrolls data, and this month's unemployment rate is 37% was the same as last month, and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, and the non-farm payrolls data was better, which is more indicative of the current strong economy, further reducing the expectation of a rate cut in March. So, this week, the market pays attention to two points, the first is around the international conflict, the geopolitical situation to see whether the risk aversion will increase, and the second, close to the Federal Reserve interest rate decision in March, pay attention to whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates as expected, which will bring a huge shock to the market!
The U.S. dollar has gone back and forth many times in the last cycle**, and the highs and lows are difficult to break, above 1038, below 1025. Form an impregnable range defense, even if it is a small non-agricultural ADP data, it is difficult to break the temporary standard ** range in February, therefore, for this week, the market should pay attention to whether the non-agricultural data can effectively break 104 1025 interval range, if not broken, continue to look at **, if broken, and then see if it can form a unilateral side. At present, the US dollar ** is around 104, and it has performed strongly at the beginning of the week, and after breaking above 104, it may form a unilateral bullish to 1065 highs. Therefore, this week, under the pressure of the strength of the US dollar, focus on the possibility of a downside breakout.
February non-agricultural is not as bold as the January non-agricultural direct long to make 17 US dollars, in fact, February non-agricultural does not have much feeling, technical analysis is also difficult to see why, although Shanhai in the European market gave 2055 almost the apex of the short order, but did not stick to the non-agricultural data. The non-agricultural data unexpectedly bullish dollar, bearish **, the lowest fell to the low point of 2028, after the non-agricultural data, Shanhai gave the 2032 2033 long single insisted on seeing this Monday morning 2042, the successful take profit, then, after this round of trend, last week's trading guidance is also perfect technology, in the real market, maintained a three-week rhythm of earnings, although it ended on Thursday, but except for the loss of a single on Thursday, the rest of the transactions all made a big profit, and there were quite rich profits throughout the week. **In terms of last week, last week solved the Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, Rongtong gold, fuel oil all long orders, soda ash short orders, short positions to see non-farming, non-agricultural data after the release of the basic determination or ** trend, then this week before the Spring Festival to do a wave of profits, everyone pay attention to keep up with the rhythm.
The beginning of the day to give the direction and important points of the day: this week's *** below is about 2028, 2008, after the breakdown, then look at the big drop space, above the focus on 2052, 2065! The overall idea of last week is to continue to remain bullish in **, although after many sweeping twists and turns, the overall bullish idea continues to be completely correct before seeing the February non-farm payrolls data. In the case that many people do not know the direction, only Shanhai from 2008 to resolutely long bullish ** to 2063, the medium-term adjustment target is bullish to 2055, all the way from 2008 to start low, there are 2012, 2020, 2022, 2025, 2030, 2035 many times long to see 2055, finally achieved the bullish goal on Thursday, long-term attention to the mountains and seas of friends should be in the mountains and seas under the clear idea of a lot of profits. The sensitivity of the market is still there, so before the February non-agricultural data, Shanhai kept a short position and waited for the release of the non-agricultural data before trading, although it did not insist on the peak of 2055, but the midnight market gave a low of 2032, and also took profit at 2042 on Monday after the next week. After this series of operations, the first week of February ended perfectly. Next, let's look at the performance of the week before the Spring Festival. There is no too important data impact this week, but in the current international environmental situation, the risk aversion is still relatively high, and it is difficult to have a large decline, therefore, the overall bulls are still strong, but relatively speaking, the temporary cyclicality is weak, which can be seen from the technical side, after the big negative non-agricultural data in February, the current daily cycle Bollinger closing, the system has failed to effectively diverge, the trend is not clear, but the previous daily line closed in the negative, laying the weak in the week, therefore, this cycle may go ** The slow decline to 2028, as well as the lower Bollinger support point of 2008, so, can start to be bearish during the week. For the small cycle, last Friday's non-agricultural data in the bearish conditions, ** to 2028, failed to break, and there was a double bottom performance, H4 cycle Bollinger also closed, the lower rail support is just around 2028, the upper rail is at the 2060 high, then, this cycle is not broken above 2028, or **strong, it is also possible to go to 2060 again, so, for the time being, the direction and strength of ** are difficult to judge, the beginning of the week is not recommended qualitative. Intraday trading first pays attention to whether 2028 is broken, and if it is not broken, you can try to look at the ** space at the bottom, pay attention to 2045 and 2052 above, and then give prompts at the high point according to the actual situation and specific points.
The important trade of spot ** last week was out of the long orders of 22 and 23, and the highest saw 233. Completed the layout of this wave of medium and long-term trading. And the highest in this wave is just 23At 3 points, the long single out was just right, and under the influence of the negative non-agricultural data, ** fell to 223. Exceeding the expectations of mountains and seas, in fact, the data is bearish to 22Near 5 is normal, without midnight **, at 226, then, **in this week is expected to go in the range**, the maximum range is placed at 235 22, you can trade in the medium and long term in this range. There may be back-and-forth fluctuations at the middle point, but as long as this range is not broken, do not look at the unilateral **!
International ** last week at 792 peaked out of the continuous fall, Thursday, Friday once fell below 72, a single week**more than 7 US dollars, Shanhai said on Thursday, this wave**turn**don't guess the bottom,**at least you can see the 70 low, therefore, the transaction needs to do high, this wave of bears to see the whole. Friday's lowest is 72, and the bears are not finished, so this week's *** can continue to be short, and then talk about seeing 70 first. I just said that this wave of bears does not guess the bottom, 70 is only the support point of the medium-term **, and there is still room for a big fall after falling below 70, and it can even fall to the previous low of 675。Currently, ** is at 72Near 4, wait for the ** short opportunity during the day, and pay attention to 73 and 74 above5. Suppress the point short.
*Aspect: 1: Shanghai Gold 2406 contract.
Shanghai gold last week focused on the early stage of the game has been holding 479 480 long single, because of concerns about the impact of non-agricultural data, so long single did not hold until the non-agricultural data, it turns out that the stability of the mountains and seas to ensure the profits of this wave of Shanghai gold, long single in the vicinity of 484 out, the highest in 485, non-agricultural data bearish, Shanghai gold fell back to the lowest in 482, after midnight at the end of the week, currently** at 483, then, this week** need to emphasize two points, first, Shanghai gold still maintains a bullish trend, in the strong ** , the effective range is at 478 485, at the key point of trading, second, although Shanghai gold is long, but above 485 can not chase more, even if the market rises sharply, it is not appropriate to do long, can understand these two points, this week's trading is very simple, due to the temporary price is higher, try to wait for the low point to support the long, but the long can only see around 485, and at the relative high point cautious short, and do not chase long.
2: Rongtong gold.
Rongtong gold last week's key transaction is also out of the early layout of the 478 479 long single, the same way and trading techniques, before the non-agricultural data prompted in the 483 vicinity of the out, long single did not take for a long time, under the influence of the non-agricultural data bearish, the lowest Rongtong gold fell back to around 481, although there is a strong **strength, but after midnight**, at present** is still around 482, from the past month**performance, Rongtong gold has been maintained in the bullish trend**, Non-agricultural data has not changed the temporary performance, therefore, this week, Rongtong gold will most likely go at a high level, the interval is placed at 478 485, it should be emphasized that Rongtong gold in 485 above do not chase long, try to fall back to long, but relatively high, long is also **, do not trade blindly.
3: Shanghai Bank 2406 contract.
After the Shanghai Bank bottomed out at 5750 last week, Shanhai prompted to do long at the 5800 low, and held more than 5900 orders in the early stage, insisted on seeing the 6000 high, and the actual highest at 5980 was not broken twice, Shanhai decisively prompted the early long single at 5980 all out, out of this wave of long singles, Shanhai's plan is to wait for the non-agricultural data and then make a new layout, therefore, also missed Thursday's 5850 5950*** space. Under the influence of the negative non-agricultural data, Shanghai Bank again**, at 5885, then, it is certain that Shanghai Bank is likely to be ** next week, the range is 6000 5800, medium and long-term trading in this range to do high and low long, of course, ** may also fluctuate back and forth at the middle point, but try not to do ** trading, specifically according to the daily analysis of the mountains and seas this week and then do transactions.
4: Fuel 2406 contract.
After the fuel peaked to 3160 on Tuesday, Shanhai emphasized that fuel may fall back in this cycle, go ** space, after Thursday's big fall, the current minimum is 3008, very obvious, after the early rise, Thursday's **, fuel has now turned weak, so, Friday prompts fuel will continue to **, below can be bearish in 2900, although Friday fell a little, not to the key support point below, but this week is expected to go *** first look at the 2900 gains and losses, if 2900 is not brokenIf it breaks 2900, it will completely enter a very weak state, and the market will wait for a big fall.
5: Soda ash 2406 contract.
After the soda ash peaked last week, the main strength is, the whole continued on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday fluctuated little, and fell slightly on Thursday, but the overall state was determined. The end of the week did not fluctuate much, a small ** on Friday, in 1955, this week** in the current **state of the slow fall, may still come out**, but not optimistic about the big **, but if it is**, the space is very large, the following first look at the 1800 target point, as for whether it can fall below 1800, then look at the specific weak momentum of the market, the maximum range can be seen at the 1600 low.
Written by Mountains and Seas.
The above article was originally written by Shanhai, **Please indicate the source. Shanhai warmly reminds that investment is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. The above only represents Shanhai's personal views and is not used as a basis for operation, and the operation is at your own risk).