IMF**: US GDP will increase by 21%, Japan 09%, India 65%, what about China?
Both China and the United States have good development in 2023, and China has 52 percentage points, the United States has 25 percentage points, so what will 2024 look like?
Recently, the IMF published its World Economic Outlook report, which predicts that in 2024, global economic growth will be 31%, up 0. from October's forecast2 percentage points.
Not long ago, the United Nations and the World Bank both made more pessimistic forecasts for the economic outlook of the United States, and the global growth rate is expected to slow to 2 this year4%。
The reason why the IM has made such a positive expectation is that inflation is steadily declining and that inflation is falling to 4 in the current year, with the exception of Argentina, the whole world9%。With the recovery of supply chains, as well as growing demand, as well as declining energy and daily necessities**, it is a positive sign for the US economy. As the global economic clouds gradually dissipated, it finally entered the end of a soft landing.
In particular, the United States is expected to grow by 21%, a significant increase of 06 percentage points. The main reason for this increase is that the U.S. economy is set to beat expectations next year, showing strong resilience after four consecutive quarters of rising growth.
Currently, the U.S. non-farm sector report shows that the U.S. Office of Labor recently released a report showing that 353,000 jobs were added in January, well outpacing the market**. In addition, average hourly earnings per capita in the United States increased by 4 percent in January from a year earlier5%, and the salary is also substantially **.
However, most global organizations expect the U.S. economy to slow down in 2024. The rationale for this is that tighter monetary policy is still working, and the IMO expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the current benchmark until the second half of 2024. On both days, the Federal Reserve met and signaled that a rate cut in March was unlikely.
In addition, Americans' excess savings are also decreasing, which will have a negative impact on U.S. investment and spending. Although the growth rate has slowed somewhat, the growth rate of 2.1 percent is still very good.
The EU expects a growth rate of 09%, down 0. from last October's forecast3 basis points, but with 0Compared to a 5% growth rate, this is already a good result. Among these figures, Germany, France, Italy and Spain increased by 0.5 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.
In 2023, the eurozone's economy will be bleak. Germany, the world's largest economic power, has seen a negative decline, only 0With a 3% increase, British and Japanese newspapers called it the "sick man of Europe". France had 0 in the fourth quarter of last year, and this year's GDP growth was 09%, less than 1 percentage point, and the situation in other countries is also average.
Thankfully, inflation has started to come back down due to the impact of energy costs, and the Eurozone economy will get a boost as spending increases.
Among developed countries, Japan will see the same deceleration, from 19% to 0. in 20249%。The United Kingdom and Canada each rose by 06 percentage points and 14 percentage points.
Emerging markets performed strongly, with better-than-expected growth. IMO, India's growth will continue to be strong, with growth expectations of 65%, which is still expected to be the fastest growth rate among the world's largest economies. In addition, Russia and Brazil are expected to be 26% and 17%。
The International Monetary Organization expects China's economic development to reach 46%, up 04 percentage points. But compared to the real 5.2 percent, it is still 06 percentage points.
In fact, not only the International Monetary Organization, but also the World Bank and the United Nations expect China's growth rate to slow in 2024, with their projected growth rates of 4.0%.5% and 47%, both less than 5%.
Why don't the three major international organizations have enough confidence in us? The IMF explained that weak spending and investment will continue to be an obstacle to economic activity.
In our country, consumption has become the primary force driving economic development, and in 2022, the contribution of household consumption to GDP reached 825%, a record level. Last year, the contribution to economic growth was about 60%, and in 2023, the reason why this contribution is so high is largely because the base in 2022 is relatively low, only -02%。
By 2024, domestic household consumption will gradually return to normal levels, and it will be difficult to maintain such a high growth rate, and its contribution to economic growth will be reduced. However, it can be seen from the various policies and measures introduced by the relevant parties since the beginning of this year that people still have great expectations for consumption. Therefore, policies to stimulate consumption are very crucial. Of course, as many netizens said, how can rich people not want to spend money, improve working conditions, increase people's income, this is the best way to stimulate.
The weakness in investment was not expected. By 2024, the task of "stabilizing growth" will continue, especially the investment in infrastructure, which has played a better supporting role in economic stability and will be further strengthened. In addition, investment in the industrial sector will continue to accelerate, while investment in the real estate sector will decline, albeit in a smaller decline. Overall, investment in the United States will increase by 2024.
In response to China's property market, the IMF has proposed three measures, including strengthening the "guaranteed delivery of real estate", relaxing housing loans, and relaxing housing loan quotas. In fact, measures in this regard have already been implemented, and many regions have included some real estate developers in the "white list" to provide them with financial support. Mortgage standards have also been lowered, with mortgage rates falling to 20% in many areas and will continue to fall in the future. Moreover, as time goes on, the purchase restriction policy is gradually being lifted.
The real estate sector, which accounts for 20% of the country, remains a top priority. If the property market is not hot for a day, new policies will be introduced.
Eventually, the International Monetary Organization, the world, will grow by 33%, in our favor. If domestic demand rises, then exports will go from negative to positive, from negative to positive, and from negative to positive. At present, we must stabilize the two major markets of the United States and Europe, and ASEAN, Russia, and the Middle East must do a good job. Of course, we must also reduce our over-reliance on specific markets.
Although the economic growth rate in 2024 will be reduced, it will not be too bad.