You first pray that there will be a small spring in the property market in 2024, right?
Now it is uncertain whether there is a small spring in the property market.
Where do you get the confidence that the house price can be **?
The price does not matter whether it is V-shaped**, L-shaped** or U-shaped**.
As long as he is **, he must have a process, and there must be an advance signal, right?
You can't expect that yesterday house prices were still fast**, and today suddenly**, immediately**, this is commodity trading, this is not a fairy tale.
And we've seen a lot of real estate signals and latelyReal estate data are all in the expansion of the decline
Let's sort out the specifics, in January and February, the four major first-tier cities were fully relaxed, and the property market was collectively loosened.
The signal that was revealed was definitely real estateThe downturn** has spread to first-tier cities, The sales of first-tier cities will be loosened if they can't hold on, but it's not because the data of first-tier cities are very good in all aspects, in order to help everyone have fun, so they are relaxed.
For example, in the Shenzhen property market, according to Leyoujia's data, the average transaction price of second-hand houses is compared with that in 2021The high point is already **22%.
You must know that this is a drop in the average price, there must be more drops, and some less falls.
This means that there are a lot of ** in just over two years, and the down payment has fallen.
This is a down payment in a first-tier city, and many people can't afford a down payment in a first-tier city with the money they have worked hard to earn all their lives.
Then Guangzhou, which has the greatest relaxation efforts, is also not ideal.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2023, new home prices in Guangzhou fell by 1% month-on-monthThis is 3% year-on-year。This is the year-on-year increase in housing prices in GuangzhouIt has been showing a ** trend for 12 consecutive months.
This means that the ** of new houses in Guangzhou in 2023 will be lower than that in 2022 in the same period.
This is still artificially controlled new housing**, and it is conceivable how much the second-hand housing market, which is more freely traded, has fallen.
Therefore, the relaxation of the property market in first-tier cities is not for fun, but because of the lack of expectations for buying a house, and the housing price continues to be **.
After talking about the relaxation of first-tier cities, let's take a look at the real estate data in January 2024, just one data, everyone can feel how cold the market isIn the housing price data of 70 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the housing prices of second-hand houses in 70 cities were all ** year-on-year.
This kind of ** rarely appears, no matter how cold the property market is in the past, it will have one or two **, and now it is completely wiped out.
This is not the end of the statistics, GF Real EstateDuring the Spring Festival this year, the average daily transaction area of new homes in 22 key cities fell by 49% compared with last year's Spring FestivalThe average daily transaction area of first- and second-tier cities fell by 79% year-on-year, and the average daily transaction area of third- and fourth-tier cities fell by 33% year-on-year.
So the opening data of the property market in 2024, what do you take to make me believe that Xiaoyangchun will definitely get better, and the entire new housing market is a situation where volume and price are falling together.
You can look at the sales of Xiaoyangchun this year, the decline is almost more than 50%, and if there is no 50%, it is at least more than 30%.
Of course, there is also a saying in the market that due to the continuous reduction of land supply area in major cities in the past two years, there is a shortage of new housing projects. The relationship between supply and demand for new houses will be broken, and new homes will be on it.
Let's not mention that the second-hand housing market, which is growing in the number of listings, is impacting the new housing market and eating up the share of the new housing market.
Let's talk about inventory. According to the data of the E-House Research Institute, the inventory scale of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities in January 2024 was 502.55 million square meters, a decrease of 05%, a year-on-year decrease of 42%，The destocking cycle of new housing in 100 cities has reached 229 months, the highest level since 2010, among them.
The decommissioning cycle of first-, second- and third-tier cities reached 16 respectively6 months, 196 months, 302 months, which is far beyond the normal decontamination cycle.
This means that the number of new houses has decreased, resulting in a certain degree of decline in inventory, but due to the more sluggish sales and the greater decline in the willingness to buy houses, the de-escalation cycle is increasing.
Overall, there is no such thing as not enough new homes to sell, at most there is a structural shortage, but this cannot affect the trend of overall house prices.
Therefore, combined with some recent overall data, there is still no sign of housing prices coming back.
Of course, I think there are still many people who are saying that housing prices will definitely be in 2025 or 2026, even if** what will happen to him in 2024?
Isn't Shenzhen's case clear enough?
In two years, a down payment has fallen. Don't tell me about this kind of heckling in advance.
Now that there are so many listings in the second-hand housing market, you can lay out casually and see how much you lose by the end of the year? Can it give you back in 2025?
Don't mention the so-called core assets, the so-called core assets in many cities are still declining, even if it can, then the question is, how many people can afford these so-called core assets?
Because in a slightly decent city, a slightly more decent core asset starts at four or five million in the second-tier cities and tens of millions in the first-tier cities. How many such properties can there be? And how many people can afford it?
Real estate itself is a mass issue. You can't replace the entire market with a small part and a small part.