**If you go to sea, it is safe to avoid danger. The shipwrecks at the bottom of the sea have a bunch of nautical charts. The most important factor in trading success is not the set of rules you use, but your self-discipline.
Time is everything. Life is not just a battle of strategy, but also a competition of time and life to some extent. Buffett lives for 10 more years, even if he only makes a continuous profit of 5 per year, the total growth of his wealth is enough to be proud of the world.
Record your own operations, from stock selection to buying and selling, make a record of your own psychological changes and operational judgments, just like writing a diary, don't invest a lot of money at the beginning, just suit yourself.
With the rapid recovery of market and investor confidence after the collective rise of A-shares today, many investors will ponder whether A-shares have fallen through? Is the A-share bull market coming? The following is an analysis of the latest situation of A-shares with these two questions.
Today's A-share collective surge, is the big bull market coming?
We must pay attention to the following points and meet the following conditions in order to support the start of a big bull market in A-shares.
Condition 1:There must be incremental funds to enter the market in a big way, and the incremental funds are first supplemented by the national team, and then the institutional and individual funds are entered, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets must maintain trillions of energy in order to support the start of A-shares; Similar to today's 926.3 billion yuan in Shanghai and Shenzhen, the volume has indeed risen, and it is expected to start the bull capacity.
Condition 2:The financial sector broke out across the board, and insurance, ** and banks continued to rise, making the major indices bigger and stronger; In particular, the ** sector is going to usher in the tide of the daily limit, similar to today's only 3 ** stocks, the number of daily limits is not enough, and it does not meet the standard of the bull market.
Condition 3:The market and confidence are restored, confidence is the driving force of the world, similar to the continuous killing of the fall is caused by the panic of the fall, the same ideal to rise, must be built on the basis of full confidence, the only way to truly support the A share to go higher and farther.
To sum up, although today's A-share collective rise, whether the Shanghai Stock Exchange 2635 points can become the historical bottom, for the time being, is not certain, and then we need to further observe the actual trend of the disk, after all, financial stocks and market confidence are not yet the conditions of the bull market, A shares really want to start a big bull market, must meet the three major conditions, the conditions meet the big bull market is about to start.
[Main rising wave ** point research and judgment].
1. On the day, there is a small yin and a small yang line.
Under normal circumstances, if the stock price is at a relatively low level, the main force will slowly push up in the form of a small yin and a small yang, and the increase will be controlled within 7% intentionally or unintentionally, because at this time, the main force does not want anyone to follow the trend, let alone exceed the increase of more than 7% and be on the list.
For example, the above picture is the trend before the start of a large ** main rising wave, the small yin and small yang arrangement before the start, and the trend is in a ** climbing stage, and after entering the main rising wave, the stock price enters a rapid rising stage, constantly pulling out the big white line.
2. The gap between the upward gap and the gap will not be filled.
Generally speaking, the stock price gaps high, which is a strong long signal, if the stock price can continue to rise after the high opening, or even close the price limit, it is a signal that the main rising wave is unfolding.
For example, our old friend Donghua Software, on February 5 and April 5, the stock had many upward gaps when the main rising wave started, and it was not filled, and then the stock price launched the most explosive three waves of rise.
3. The weekly MACD has just occurred above the zero line or is about to have a "** cross".
According to the principle of MACD, we can know that the MACD's "** cross" above the zero line means that the stock has had a previous round of ** and a subsequent correction. When the MACD appears again, it means that the previous adjustment has ended, and this adjustment is just a pullback, and the stock price will enter a new round of upward phase.
For example, the main rising wave in the picture above**, in 1949 points**, the stock price soared by 60%, and then began to follow the **adjustment, although the adjustment is not large, but we can see that the MACD indicator has been in a downward channel, and it lasted until March 26, after the MACD indicator appeared above the zero axis**Cross, the stock price entered the main rising wave soaring again.
In the market, the best operation strategy is to choose to wait and see, but it is not nothing to do, we can choose some strong ones in a bad situation, as a preparation for the later stage of operation. Dark horses always stand up when they are desperate, and the more panicked and pessimistic they are, the more the main forces in the market buck the trend.
The application of the OBV indicator in stock prices and stocks
1. The stock price is **.
OBV is moderately upward: indicates that the bullish trend in the market is strengthening.
The OBV of the above chart is at the same time as the weekly stock price, indicating that the trend is upward and the price and volume are quite well matched.
So the right thing to do is to continue to take it well when OBV is still in the upstream.
OBV is rising rapidly: the stock price has risen to a high level, and the main force may be going through the last wave, in order to pull up the shipment.
The OBV of the above figure and the stock price rose rapidly at the same time, and the main force had an obvious intention to pull up and ship.
When the stock price reaches a certain price, the OBV shrinks rapidly, indicating that the funds entering the market are insufficient and need to be out in time.
2. The stock price is **.
OBV Synchronisation**: Indicates that the market is buying less and less, and the stock price is strengthening in the direction of bearishness.
The stock price in the above figure is basically in sync with OBV, indicating that there are fewer and fewer buyers, no one takes over, and the natural stock price is in the first trend, and the stock price has fallen by 25% in more than 1 month.
There is no obvious outflow of OBV: it proves that the main force is just doing a washing action, not a shipment, and the buying is still very positive, and the market outlook is bullish.
The stock price is fast**, but the OBV basically does not flow out, indicating that the main force is just doing a washing action.
Sure enough, the main force quickly pulled up the stock price after two rapid shuffles.
Investment insights
You don't buy to lose money, you buy to make as much money as possible. When the trend is in your favor, try to be greedy and let the profits run, and when the trend is not in your favor, stop fantasizing and cut losses.
To make a transaction, the most taboo is to use pressure funds. Once there is pressure on the funds, the mentality will be distorted. You get out of the market in a panic because of the normal volatility in the market, only to find out afterwards that you're in a very good position.
You will also be limited by the time you have to use your funds, and you will make a desperate bet when you don't have the opportunity, and end up losing the whole game.
Follow the direction of funds to find the scope of the subject, think about the operation level according to the size of the theme, and plan the cycle and size of the use of funds with the operation level, this is my transaction.
The capital is small, and the position does not exceed three tickets; The capital is large, and the position does not exceed ten checks. Funds within 100,000, up to two tickets. The troops are small, and they will be attacked everywhere.
The above content is for reference only and is not intended as specific investment advice