Recently, not only the black system is weak, but the glass has also been in the first pattern, and the range of today's day is not small.
Not only glass, we see that the cost of soda ash is also continuing to weaken, and glass has also moved down driven by soda ash. However, production margins have now recovered.
Returning to the actual fundamentals of glass, on the demand side, the demand of the real estate sector, from the data of 2023, there are some positive changes, including the narrowing of the decline in indicators such as real estate investment and sales, and the rapid increase in the area of real estate completions. However, the front-end data still shows no signs of turning around, and the pessimism of the overall market remains.
In terms of automobiles, according to the data of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, 2023 will show the characteristics of 'low driving and high walking, gradually improving', and it is expected that China's total automobile sales will still maintain a slight year-on-year growth trend in 2024, which will have a limited impact on glass.
However, the comprehensive demand may be more in the real estate sector.
In terms of inventory, judging from the current inventory situation, the current inventory of glass enterprises is only 319770,000 heavy containers, compared with the same period last year, is obviously low, but in the long run, with the gradual increase of midstream and downstream inventory, the transaction logic of inventory transfer may come to an end. Although the current inventory pressure is temporarily covered by the replenishment of futures and merchants, once the peak season is reached, the midstream speculation or the inventory accumulated by upstream glass factories during the Spring Festival will be released, and the historically high supply level will bring great pressure to the glass industry.
Data: Straight flush.
Therefore, on the whole, the pressure still exists, production and sales are declining, and inventories are beginning to accumulate, showing a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. At present, the manufacturer's inventory is at a neutral low level in the same period, which supports the glass spot **, and the short-term price should not be overly bearish, but in the long run, with the gradual increase of the middle and downstream inventory, the transaction logic of inventory transfer may end. There is no more bullish drive on the macro policy, and the disk continues to have greater upward pressure, and it may follow the fluctuations of raw material soda ash in the short termOverall 05** is viewed as weak**.
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