Determine the tonality! The property market rescue has been escalated to a political level, professionals suggest
I don't know if you remember anything.
In February 2020, Henan Province interviewed Zhumadian City** to improve its political position, implement the main responsibility of the city, and achieve the goal of stabilizing housing prices, land prices, and expectations in accordance with the spirit of national requirements.
The reason is actually clear to everyone, that is, Zhumadian has launched a very large-scale rescue of the property market, and Zhumadian has also become the target of the first round of bailouts.
Many people did not realize the significance of this interview. In fact, it is precisely because of this interview that the local rescue property market policy in the back basically does not dare to cross the thunder pool by half a step, the reason is very simple, this interview has set the tone for the later rescue policy, which can be saved, but it should not touch the bottom line.
The aim is to keep real estate stable, land stable and expected stable. Therefore, since then, in the case of land and real estate**, although there is no document stipulating restrictions, it is basically impossible to significantly reduce prices or increase prices significantly, otherwise even if the developer wants to significantly reduce the price, it is not allowed, and it will not be approved by the committee.
However, time has passed, and after a two-and-a-half-year adjustment period in the national property market, second-hand housing has lasted for nearly two years, and housing prices in some communities have returned to 2019 or even 2016. Developers are also complaining, defaulting on debts, not being able to get land, poor sales, and a payment crisis in the upstream and downstream chains, even rich banks can't sit still, shrinking development loans, and almost stopping financing for real estate companies.
The consequences of this scenario can be seen in the content of the 2024 working session of the DGCCRF on January 30"Mitigating risks in key areas such as real estate is an important goal for 2024"。
It can be said that the current rescue environment of the property market is completely different from that of 2020. Not only to save, but also to make great efforts to save, and it can even be said that at the expense of certain aspects to save. This is not speculation, we can take a look at the article published by China News Network **News** on January 30 entitled "The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development Continues to Launch Benefits, and First-tier Cities Follow Up Quickly".
In the first paragraph of the article, it is mentioned that the meeting of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development at the beginning of the year (referring to the implementation of the real estate financing coordination mechanism) is the first vane of the next step in the implementation of real estate work. In the penultimate and third paragraphs, it is basically certain that when the rescue of the property market rises to a political level again, it is actually down"Dead order"。The original text is as follows.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development said at the above-mentioned meeting that it is necessary to adhere to the city-specific and precise policies, make good use of the political toolbox, give the city full autonomy in real estate regulation and control, and let the city adjust its real estate policy according to local conditions.
For real estate regulation, Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, has used"Ten pots and pans, nine different"to analogy. The latest definition of the direction of urban regulation and control policies this year is also considered to be a strong signal for the implementation of local entity responsibility.
What does this mean? Obviously, the situation is different in every city"Ten pots and pans, nine different"。Well, I can't save you with the same policy, I'm leaving it to you right now, and it's up to you to decide which policy to use according to your own situation. However, the result of the requirements is that the market must be stabilized and cannot continue to shrink, otherwise the local government will bear the main responsibility.
As a result, ** have said that this is the latest definition of the direction of property market regulation, releasing a strong signal. This is no longer a question of the application of specific policies, and result-oriented decision-making to stabilize the property market is related to political performance.
The optimization policy must be in line with the spirit of the country, this policy is determined by you, we must see the effect of the market stabilizing and rebounding, the direction and intensity are different.
According to the latest conclusions, in the eyes of those in the know, it is either not advisable or right to sell a house now! Why? There are three main reasons.
On the one hand, after a long-term adjustment, real estate** is currently at its lowest point.
Housing prices do not rise when they say they rise, they fall when they fall, and similarly, there is no such thing as falling and rising. According to official data, our average price has not dropped much, and it has dropped a few points a year, but our feelings are actually deeper, including big cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, where the community has fallen below 20% and 30% in two years, not to mention small and medium-sized cities, some suburban plates have fallen by half, and some have fallen back to 5-8 years ago, even if the interest rate is not counted, many people's principal has been lost.
So at present, the motivation to fall again is insufficient, because these owners have been fooled, unless they are in urgent need of money, after all, this is a minority, most of the others will not sell their houses easily, they would rather put the house there, no matter how bad it is, they have to rent it out to pay off part of the mortgage, anyway, they are not in a hurry, just wait for the market to change.
Secondly, the property market belongs to the political market, there is no policy that does not reach the goal, and the current policies in all aspects are directed to promote the stabilization and recovery of the property market, and it is unlikely that the property market will take off after the year.
This reason is self-evident, at present, the state's financial support for real estate enterprises, the increase in the qualifications for housing and the reduction of mortgage interest rates, etc., are all dedicated and fully supported, including through the liberalization of land auctions"The highest bidder wins"In order to boost the recovery strategy of the property market, the goal is very clear, that is, to comprehensively promote the stability of the property market! The goal is clear, that is, to promote the stability of the property market in all aspects.
In the view of many industry researchers, with the arrival of the traditional transaction season of the property market during the change of seasons every year, on the basis of so many property market support policies one after another, whether it is the heat of land auctions, or the transaction heat of new houses and second-hand houses, will show a warming trend. If you sell a house now, you are undoubtedly selling land.
Third, there could be a reversal in the number of births by 2024.
According to a report by Punch News, 5.69 million couples registered their marriages across the country in the first three quarters of 2023, an increase of 2450,000 pairs.
This information is crucial. Because it is well known that many people** population decline in 2023 will fall below 8 million, but in fact, not only did it not fall below 8 million, but it remained at the level of 9 million, much higher than initially expected. In addition to this, the number of new marriages in 2023 has also risen significantly, which means that the population born in 2024 is likely to stop falling and rebound.
If it can effectively stop the decline and rebound, it is obviously not only a simple matter, but more importantly, the restoration of confidence. The importance of the people to the property market is self-evident, while the policy supports the property market, the people's expectations of the property market will also lead to the reversal of the property market.