Supporting the green.
The Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau issued the "Notice on Optimizing the Housing Purchase Restriction Policy" on the 7th, and the number of years of settlement and social security payment for household registration residents is no longer limited, and the social security period for non-registered residents is adjusted to 3 years.
This is the first time since 2024 that the four major first-tier cities have optimized the purchase restriction policy - on January 27, Guangzhou's new policy clearly relaxed the purchase restriction on housing over 120 square meters, and supported "rent one buy one" and "sell one buy one". On January 30, Shanghai issued new rules to explicitly support the purchase of houses by singles who are not registered in the city. On February 6, Beijing's Tongzhou District, which is considered the country's "strictest purchase restrictions", also relaxed housing purchase restrictions. The new policy on Shenzhen's property market has relaxed household registration restrictions, covering a wider range of areas, benefiting all administrative districts.
First-tier cities are the "weather vane" of the property market and have an important impact on the trend of the real estate market. In the second half of last year, since the first proposed "timely adjustment and optimization of real estate policies", the four major first-tier cities have all joined the ranks of "recognising housing but not recognising loans". However, judging from the market reaction, first-tier cities have also seen differentiation, with housing prices in core areas tending to be stable, and the overall wait-and-see sentiment is heavier. The housing price data of 70 cities released by the National Bureau of Statistics in December last year showed that the market continued to cool down, and there was still great downward pressure on housing prices.
At this time, continuing to increase the optimization of the purchase restriction policy is not only a positive response to market pressure, but also an optimization and adjustment based on the situation and seeking truth from facts. It is undeniable that the purchase restriction policy in various places has played a role in stabilizing the market in a specific period, but with the major changes in the supply and demand relationship of the national commercial housing market, it has come time to adjust. Taking Shenzhen as an example, the growth of the registered population has slowed down, and the situation of foreign population speculating in real estate through settlement has also decreased significantly.
The recovery of the real estate market is a gradual process. At the moment, although the overall trend of house prices at the bottom continues, there are some positive signals in the market. In 2023, the decline in indicators such as real estate investment and sales will narrow, and the area of real estate completions will increase rapidly. And since the release of this round of purchase restriction policy, some results have also been seen in various places. Some experts predict that after the cancellation of the "double purchase limit", the market volume in Tongzhou, Beijing is expected to increase by more than 50%; In Shanghai, in the half month after the release of the new policy, the average daily transaction volume of new homes increased by 19% compared with the 1st to 14th of the month, indicating that market confidence is recovering.
The scenery should be long-sighted. In the longer term, there is still a good foundation for the long-term healthy development of the real estate market. In the past, the process of urbanization provided a broad market space and development opportunities for the real estate industry, but now, China's urbanization is still in the process of continuous development. As of 2023, China's urbanization rate is 6616%, compared to the level of about 80% in advanced economies, there is still more than a dozen points of room for improvement, which means that there is still a lot of new housing demand. In addition, at present, many people have an urgent need for improved housing, which will also form an important driving force for the real estate market.
At the end of last year, the first economic work conference clearly stated that it is necessary to actively and steadily resolve real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises with different ownership systems without discrimination, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. At the same time, it also emphasized the acceleration of the improvement of relevant basic systems and the construction of a new model of real estate development. As the real estate market continues to inject positive factors into the real estate market at all levels and the economy continues to recover, the real estate market will eventually bid farewell to the trough and usher in healthy and stable development.