Even during the Chinese New Year, grain prices and pig prices also affect people's hearts. Finally, after the New Year, the pig food market has opened a new prelude.
From the overall ** point of view,The pig market after the year is basically the same as the prediction of the previous year.
The first is the pre-holiday and mid-holiday pig prices**.
Basically, every year, pig prices start near the Spring Festival and continue until the middle of the year. Although there was a sudden drop a year ago, pig prices are still on the upward trend during the festival.
On the one hand, everyone is in the New Year, and there are fewer pigs to sell, so the slaughterhouse is tight in pigs, and the market is uneven in the shortage of pigs.
On the other hand,Pre-holiday consumption still has some support, which has promoted the rise in pig prices.
ButThe average price of live pigs still failed to "break 8".
I remember that before the holiday, we had analyzed that after the sudden fall in pig prices before the holiday, the weakness has been exposedAlthough the pig price will soon be ** again, it also means that the decline has appeared, and the motivation to sprint again is insufficient.
It is difficult for pig prices to jump to the 8 yuan mark as a whole, andThe regional imbalance is more obvious, for example, some areas are below 8 yuan, and some areas are 8 to 9 yuan.
In fact, pig price fluctuations are exactly like this.
However, for the ** after the year, the market is generally not optimistic.
On the one hand, it is the traditional off-season for pork consumption after the year, and the peak season has not been able to prosper anywhere, let alone the off-season, thereforeWith consumption plummeting after the year, there is a high chance that pig prices will fall again.
On the other hand, the official has also given a prediction for the year after the year, sayingThe pig production capacity is huge, and the consumption is weak after the year, and it is easy to have a "two-headed" situation.
And after the new year, just after the fifth day of the new year, the fatigue of pig prices has begun to appear.
The sixth day of the Lunar New Year,The national pig market "changed face overnight", the scope became significantly smaller, and the range gradually increased, such as the price of pigs in Northeast China, North China, East China, and Central China was under pressure.
So, here's the problem,Is it a signal that pig prices fell so suddenly after the year?
First of all, the price of pigs will fall after the year, which is a high probability event and not unexpected.
For the trend of the pig market after the year, the judgment of the major institutions is basically the same, namelyIn the context of strong supply and weak demand, pig prices are almost inevitable.
First, consumption plummeted after the year.
On the one hand, everyone is basically digesting the New Year's stockpiles after the New Year, and the probability of buying new products is not high, andThe decline in consumption may not be gradual, but likely to fall off a cliff, which has a great impact on the hog market.
On the other hand, the live pig inventory in the first quarter was still highEveryone also knows that the new year is the off-season, so there is a general psychology of high prices.
Therefore, the pig price after the year is a high probability eventThe question is, will it fall sharply?
In the new farmer** come,In the short term, the probability of a sharp drop in pig prices is not large. Because although consumption has entered the off-season, the pig production capacity is huge, butThere is still a "strange circle" in the pig market this year, that is, the mentality of looking forward to rising is also relatively strong. Under the effect of this mentality, it is often laid out in advance.
It is mainly manifested in two aspects:
First, the market has high expectations for the "inflection point" in the second half of the year, and it is not excluded that slaughtering enterprises will have the operation of dividing and warehousing on dipsIn this way, it will also slow down the impact of the decline in pork consumption and support pig prices.
Second, under the expectation of the "inflection point", some farmers may start the fattening operation and digest part of the pressure.
Therefore, in the short term, although the pig price is weak, but the conditions for the big fall are not sufficient, but the pressure on the pig market still exists, especially for the "inflection point" controversy is also relatively large, so it can not be blindly optimistic, and the pressure on the pig market this year is still very great.
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