Important information about scrap
On February 20 (the eleventh day of the first month), black ** goods continued to fall! The price of the snail 05 contract was 37,538 yuan ton, down 82 yuan ton, a drop of 214%。Iron ore 05 contract ** price 9095 yuan ton, down 52 yuan ton, down 541%！
Today, scrap steel did not withstand the pressure, and some steel mills began to fall. upFall, and five other steel mills opened, among themupThe price steel mills are mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Shandong, Jiangxi, Liaoning and other placesupmagnitude 30-70; FallThe price steel mills are mainly concentrated in Anhui, Hebei, Inner Mongolia and ShanxiFallMagnitude 20-30. The current factors influencing the trend of scrap are:
The market is low, and it is difficult to find vehicles in logistics, so it is still necessary to wait until after the Lantern Festival to return to the normal rhythm;
Snails and other black varieties are in full swingFall
The profits of steel mills are limited, and the electric furnace plant has not yet been opened, and the upward trend of scrap steel is slightly weak.
Since yesterday, both futures and presents have weakened, and the thread has been connected for two daysFall, the billet was lowered by 20, which undoubtedly poured cold water on the old iron who started to actively receive goods. According to the law of previous years, not all should start the yearupWhy, why does it look so unconfident this year?
First of all: the weak finished product leads to poor snail expectations.
At the end of 23, the production limit can not be stopped, most steel companies took advantage of the end of the year to rush a wave of output, resulting in the first week after the holiday The total steel inventory has increased significantly compared with previous yearsupA small wave, for a while, stimulated market sentiment. However, in the past two days, as the ** market continues to growFallNorth China took the lead in lowering the downgrade, and steel companies in East China are also mostly wait-and-see, and the market is a little rumored.
Secondly: coke is reduced, and the cost of steel is lowered
(The price spread of iron scrap continues to shorten, and the price advantage of scrap steel has shrunk).
Coke starts the yearFall100 110, so that the cost of molten iron downward, the level of scrap itself is not low, compared with molten iron, the advantage gradually becomes smaller. And at present, the inventory of steel mills is not lower than in previous years, the demand for replenishment is not so strong, in the context of meager profits, it is necessary to squeeze the profits of the raw material end, so the pressure is given to the scrap steel, many freight yards are just ready to raise the price to receive, see this ** immediately dispelledupValence thoughts.
AbsolutelyOn the one hand, many freight yards have not yet started, all of which are concentrated after the fifteenth day of the first month, the daily consumption of steel mills has risen, but the arrival is still low, and the short-term inventory is still consumed. On the other hand, the two sessions are about to start on March 5, and the market will have to wait and see the expected direction of the policy, and the market is not expected to fall too ugly.
In summary,We operate cautiously, as long as we are not blindly betting up, receiving goods appropriately, fast in and out, and there is not much risk in the short termHere, I also wish you all good luck, prosperous business, and a prosperous New Year! Next, please continue to see the trend of spot rebar
The black series opened high and went low, giving the steel spot market a slap in the faceAfter the Spring Festival holiday, in the **sharply**, the iron ore of the DCE fell more than 5% to 9095 yuan ton. Singapore's iron ore index** fell 482% to 12125 US dollars ton, the market spot ** fell again, and the merchant operation sentiment was sluggishThe market transaction is poor, and I am buyingupDon't buy itFallUnder the psychological effect, most merchants are reluctant to replenish the warehouse, what is the trend of steel in the later stage? Read on to ......
At the opening of today's market, the actual downstream demand has not yet started significantly, and the superimposed coke reduction has driven the cost down, and the finished products have continued to decline. The main forces of rebar and hot coil ** fell to 3751 points and 3881 points respectively, both hitting a new low in three and a half months; Overall, the trend suppressed morale, and there were many downward trends in various places, such as Hefei, Fuzhou, Nanchang, Wuhan, Tianjin, Changchun, Chongqing and a few other markets of rebar 10-20 yuan tons, and most markets maintained stable operation.
On February 20, the 2405 contract was weak in early trading, and closed at 3777 down 151%；The futures volume 2405 contract was weak in early trading**, and closed at 3902 down 184%。
On February 20, the iron ore 2405 contract was weak in early trading and closed at 926 at noon5 down 364%。
On February 20, the coking coal 2405 contract was weak in early trading and closed at 1644 at noon5 down 194%；The coke 2405 contract was weak in early trading**, closing at 2264 at noon5 down 186%。
Macro aspects:In the case of continuous over-sequels of MLF, after five consecutive months of "standing still", the 5-year LPR was lowered by 25 basis points to 395%, the interest cost of a million mortgage for 30 years is about 520,000 yuan, which will undoubtedly boost market confidence, promote the real estate market transaction data to pick up one after another, and will guide the real interest rate of real economy financing to further decline, and then promote the first quarter of the economy "good start".
However, from the perspective of actual demand for steel, it is not optimistic. The Lunar New Year holiday has ended, but the time for the resumption of work and production at the terminal is concentrated after the Lantern Festival.
Industry:After the holiday, the first round of coke price reduction landed, and the wet quenching was reduced by 100 yuan tons; On the morning of the 20th, Jingtang Port 615% PB fine ore **10 reported 993 yuan wet tons. E-House reported that the transaction area of new homes in 50 key cities in January 2024 fell by 7% year-on-year, and the decline rate was slightly narrower than that of last year (-8%).
In addition, the first cold wave of the Year of the Dragon hit, on the evening of February 19, the ** meteorological observatory successively issued six warnings of fog, sandstorms, cold waves, blizzards, strong winds, strong convection, etc., in the short term, most of the central and eastern parts of China will be from west to east, from north to south. Therefore, the end of the Spring Festival holiday does not mean a recovery in terminal demand. On February 18, steel mills around the country intensively rose prices, Tangshan Qian'anpu billet resources ex-factory tax cumulatively raised 80 yuan tons to 3650 yuan tons, but yesterday Tangshan billet ** rose to 3630 yuan ton, and the finished products around the country also fell back today. Further illustrated, the post-holiday steel is mostly driven by emotions and is not supported by trading volume.
The spot market is stable and weak
From February 20th,Building materials8 out of 24 marketsFall10-40 yuan ton, rebar 20mmHRB400E average **3956 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**Fall18 yuan ton;
Hot rolls19 out of 24 marketsFall10-60 yuan ton, 475 hot-rolled coils averaged 4077 yuan tons, compared with the previous trading dayFall25 yuan ton;
Medium and heavy plates5 out of 23 marketsup10-30 yuan ton, 14-20mm general medium plate average **4163 yuan ton, compared with the previous trading day**Fall7 yuan ton.
February 20thTangshan Qian'an ST Pu billet resourcesdownFall90 ex-factory tax reported 3540. (Yuan ton).
**Dramatically**
On February 20, the main force of black rebarFall82, closed at 3753,FallWidth 214%；Hot coil workhorseFall91, closed at 3884,FallWidth 229%；The main force of coking coalFall30.5, closed at 16465，FallWidth 182%；Coke workhorseFall52, closed at 22555，FallWidth 225%；Iron oreFall52, closed at 9095，FallWidth 541%, Huatai ** increased its holdings by more than 4,000 short orders.
Integrated perspectives
With the strong pull-down of iron ore and bicoke,Rebar and hot coil also can't hold on to nearly 100 points, the steel spot market follows the fall, and the mentality of market merchants collapsesAt the same time, most of the downstream terminal projects have not started, the market transaction is sluggish, the current cold wave is coming, the first meteorological station issued six warnings such as fog, sandstorms, cold waves, blizzards, strong winds, strong convection, etc., the demand is insufficient and the expectation is relatively weak, the market merchants are cautious and wait-and-seeIt is expected that tomorrow's steel will run steadily and weakly, with a range of 20-50 yuan tons.
Factors influencing steel**
01. Six warnings were issued in a row, and the cold wave brought sand and dust and heavy snowstorms
*The Meteorological Observatory has successively issued six warnings for heavy fog, sandstorms, cold waves, heavy snowfall, strong winds, and severe convection. It is expected that in the next three days, most of the central and eastern parts of China will be violent from west to east and from north to southDropWen, among them, parts of southern Hunan, eastern Guizhou and other places cumulatedDropThe temperature amplitude can reach more than 20, and there are heavy snowstorms in the northwest and west of Henan.
With the cold wave coming, most parts of northern China have opened a snowstorm warning, and the start of downstream terminal projects has been postponed again, and the demand for steel has not started, and at the same time, under the influence of the weatherSteel transportation is blocked, the market transaction is sluggish, coupled with the social inventory is still high, the business mentality is not good, and more to maintain a cautious wait-and-see, which is bearish for the steel trend.
02. The profit of rebar disc of steel mill is -21354 yuan ton
According to Golden Ten data, as of February 20, the rebar disc profit of steel mills was -21354 yuan ton, an increase of 56 from the previous trading day34 yuan. (Profit of rebar of disc steel mill = main rebar connection ** - theoretical cost of rebar (2.)4. Iron ore main company**+068 coke main company** +250).
Subjected to ** sharply downFallAnd the downstream terminal demand has not been started, the market business sentiment is sluggish, and the 20-day hot coil spot ** is all offlineFall, rebar and wire rod are mostly in stockFall。Among them,Hot coil fell by 20-100 yuan tons, rebar fell between 10-40 yuan tons, the first start time in the postponement, the first node is the "two sessions", before the macro policy has not been introduced more substantial benefits, in the short term, steel spot ** continuation ** trend.
03. The interest rate of the five-year loan market was lowered by 025%
China's central bank kept the one-year loan market** interest rate (LPR) at 345% unchanged, five-year loan market** rate (LPR) from 420%Downward adjustmentto 395% expected 410%, the previous value was 420%。
On the 20th, the central bank announced the LPR five years ago under the loan market ** interest rateDrop0.25%, exceeding market expectationsLower loan interest rates, reduce the cost of housing loans, promote the transaction of the property market, enhance the liquidity of market funds, and drive the enthusiasm of market investment, but the expectation of interest rate cuts and RRR cuts has been released before the Spring Festival, and the impact of interest rate cuts is limited, and more macro policy stimulus is needed in the future.
Today's steel mills**summary and trend**
Today's steel mill guidance ** stable and weak adjustment, range of 20-40 yuan. Although most of the market merchants have opened for business, the downstream terminals have not yet resumed work, and the entire market is still in a semi-closed state. The snail disk fell sharply, seriously dampening market confidence and hitting the recovery expectation of downstream demand; The third round of coke liftingDropLanding, the production cost of steel mills has eased, but the overall profit is not good, and the pace of production increase is slow; Overall,It is expected that the short-term steel mills will be weakly adjusted.
Steel mill price adjustment on Tuesday, February 20, 2024
First, Jiangsu Nangang building materials ** adjustment policy
On February 20, the price adjustment information of Jiangsu Nangang construction steel is as follows:Thread: ** Reduced by 20 yuan,Now the execution price of 16-20mmHRB400 rebar is 3980 yuan ton;
Remarks: 12mm screw plus 120 yuan, 14mm plus 60 yuan, 22mm and 25mm plus 30 yuan, 28mm, 32mm plus 60 yuan, seismic plus 30 yuan, nuclear power thread plus 50 yuan;
The above adjustments are all tax inclusive and will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Second, Yongfeng, Shiheng building materials ** adjustment policy
On February 20, Yongfeng and Shi Heng remained stable on the factory of construction steel, and the adjustment information is as follows:
1. The rebar guidance is 3940 yuan tons.
2. The current HRB400 10mm coiled snail is 4200 yuan tons.
3. The high-line guidance is now HPB300 10mm coil snail implementation ** for 4200 yuan tons.
The above ** are ex-factory prices including tax.
Third, the Yangtze River Iron and Steel Hefei Building Materials Adjustment Policy
On February 20, Changjiang Iron and Steel adjusted the ex-factory price of building materials in Hefei as follows:
1. Thread: down 30 yuan, now 18mm seismic thread** is 4030 yuan ton;
2. Coiled snail: down 30 yuan, now 8mm seismic coiled snail ** is 4250 yuan ton;
The above adjustments are all tax inclusive and will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Fourth, Shandong Iron and Steel Jinan Building Materials Adjustment Policy
On February 20, the guidance of Shandong Iron and Steel hot-rolled ribbed steel bar in Jinan remained stable, after adjustment, the straight screw HRB400E22mm guidance **3980 yuan ton, the coil screw HRB400E10mm guidance **4240 yuan ton.
Fifth, Pinggang Jiangyin, Wuxi plate adjustment policy
Jiujiang Pinggang Jiangyin and Wuxi regional plates on February 20 guidance**: 4180 yuan tons of general plates, 4330 yuan tons of low alloy plates, compared with yesterday, **stable.
Sixth, Jiangsu Huawei medium and heavy plate adjustment policy
On February 20, the basic price of carbon in Jiangsu Huawei medium and heavy plate factory was 4,030 yuan, and the price of manganese plate was increased by 180 yuan**Reduced by $20
7. Tangshan Ruifeng reel ** adjustment information
On February 20, the ex-factory price of Tangshan Ruifeng coil tape: 485-540 reported 3840 yuan, down 40 yuan; 805-844 reported 3850 yuan, down 30 yuan; 1200-1220 reported 3850 yuan, down 30 yuan, tax included.
8. Yutian Jinzhou wire rod ** adjustment information
On February 20, the benchmark of Yutian Jinzhou wire rod was lowered by 20 yuan
1. The current HPB300 material 8-10mm high line is 3910 yuan; 6.5 12mm additional 60 yuan;
2,6mm factory ** 4030 yuan.
9. Tangshan Donghua wire rod ** adjustment information
On February 20, Tangshan Donghua factory ** was lowered by 40 yuan, after the adjustment:
1. HPB300 material 8-10mm high line 3910 yuan ton.
10. Xinji Aosen High Line ** Adjustment Information
On February 20, the factory of Xinji Aosen high line was lowered by 40 yuan tons, and the Q195 material was 6The 5mm high line knows that **3960 yuan ton, and the above ** tax is weighed.
Ten.
1. Shanxi Hongda building materials ** adjustment information.
On February 20, Hongda building materials factory ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. The current HRB400E material 18-22mm rebar is 3940 yuan, 12 plus 200 yuan, 14 plus 180 yuan, 16 plus 80 yuan, 18 plus 30 yuan plus 50 yuan;
2. Now 235 material 8-10mm high line factory ** is 4540 yuan;
3. Now 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail factory ** is 4640 yuan; The above** will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Ten.
Second, Shougang Changzhi building materials ** adjustment information.
On February 20, Changgang building materials were stable (ton price, the same below).
1. Thread ex-factory price: 18-22mmHRB400E is 3830 yuan, 12mm plus 200, 14mm plus 180, 16mm plus 30, 25mm plus 30, 28-32mm plus 120.
2. Ex-factory price of wire rod: 8-12mm3930 yuan.
3. The ex-factory price of coiled snails: 8-10mm3920 yuan.
The above ** are tax and cash ex-factory price, measurement method: thread is the calculation; The coiled snail and wire rod are weighed. The above** will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Ten.
3. Shanxi Liheng Building Materials** adjustment information.
On February 20, Shanxi Liheng building materials factory ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. Now 18-22mmHRB400E rebar ex-factory is 4110 yuan, 12 plus 200 yuan, 14 plus 200 yuan, 16 plus 50 yuan, 28-32 plus 150 yuan;
2. Now Q235 material 8-10mm high line factory ** is 4030 yuan, 65 plus 50 yuan, Q195 material 65. The high line is increased by 110 yuan on the basis of 235 material;
3. Now 8-10mmHRB400E coil snail factory ** is 4060 yuan, 6 plus 200 yuan plus 150 yuan; The above** will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Ten.
Fourth, Shanxi Meijin building materials ** adjustment information.
On February 20, Meijin building materials were stable (ton price, the same below):
1. The rebar 16-25mmHRB400E is 4080 yuan, and the small snail is 200 yuan;
2. The wire HPB300 8-10mm execution ** is 4130 yuan;
3. The 8-10mm execution of the coil snail is 4130 yuan;
The above ** are sent to the Taiyuan area including tax**, measurement method: the thread is weighed; The coiled snail and wire rod are weighed. The above** will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Ten.
Fifth, Shanxi Gaoyi building materials ** adjustment information.
On February 20, Shanxi Gaoyi building materials factory ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. Now Q235 material 8-10mm high line factory ** is 4230 yuan, 65. Increase the price by 80 yuan;
2. Now 8-10mmHRB400E coiled snail factory ** is 4330 yuan, 6 plus 200 yuan; The above** will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Ten.
Sixth, Xianggang building materials ** adjustment information.
On February 20, Xianggang building materials were stable (ton price, the same below).
1. The ex-factory guide price of HRB400E material 18mm rebar is 4130 yuan ton;
2. HRB400E material 8-10mm coiled snail factory guide price is 4230 yuan ton;
3. The ex-factory guide price of HPB300 material 8-10mm high line is 4330 yuan ton;
The above** will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Ten.
7. Adjustment information of JISCO building materials.
On February 20, Lianyuan Steel building materials were stable (ton price, the same below).
At present, the guide price of HRB400E material 18mm rebar is 4120 yuan ton;
The above** will be implemented from February 20, 2024.
Ten.
8. Kunshan Iron and Steel Kunming Building Materials ** adjustment information.
On February 20, Kunshan Iron and Steel Kunming regional building materials guidance ** stable (ton price, the same below):
1. HRB400E 18mm rebar is 4170 yuan, 20-25mm plus 30 yuan, 16mm plus 30 yuan, 12-14mm plus 130 yuan;
2. HPB300 8-10mm high line execution ** is 4320 yuan;
3. HRB400E 8-10mm coil snail execution ** is 4370 yuan;
The above ** are sent to Kunming including tax**, measurement method: thread is the calculation; The coil snail and the high line are over-pounded.
Ten.
9. Zunyi Fuxin Special Steel Building Materials Adjustment Information.
On February 20, Zunyi Fuxin Special Steel building materials were stable (ton price, the same below).
1. The current HRB400E 18mm rebar guide price is 3900 yuan, 12 14 plus 110 yuan, 16 plus 80 yuan plus 80 yuan, 28 plus 160 yuan, 32 plus 210 yuan;
2. At present, the guide price of HRB400E 8-10mm coiled snail is 4000 yuan, and 6 coiled snails are added to 300 yuan.
3. The current HPB300 8-10mm high-line weighing guide price is 3980 yuan, and the high-line 6 plus 150 yuan.
4. The fourth-grade HRB500E is added 280 yuan for the same specification ** rebar.
The above**are all cash for the buyer to withdraw tax **; Effective February 20, 2024.
The latest February 20 national steel ***
On February 20, the national steel ** fell sharplyFall, full downFall。At present, there is still room under the black series such as iron ore and coal coke, and the support of the raw material end is weakening. From a fundamental point of view, demand is slowly recovering, and the market inventory pressure is average, and the spot is not suppressed. It is expected that tomorrow's steel ** or continue to weaken.
Today's building materials**: stable**
Today's national building materials**Fall10-40。The three wheels of coke have landed, the steel mill is still in a state of loss, the downstream demand is insufficient, and the resumption of blast furnace production is not as good as in previous yearsIt is expected that tomorrow's building materials will remain stable and weak;
Today's hot rolling**: large**
Today, the country is hot-rolled**FallDropInterest rate changes are "bearish", the macro expectation drive is weakened, and the bifocal continuesFall, iron ore largeFallOver 5%, the loss of steel mills is superimposed on the accumulation of inventory, weak demand, and the cost side is "collapsing".FallIt is expected that the decline in hot rolls will continue tomorrow;
Today's cold rolling**: Running green
Today, the country is cold-rolled**Fall10-30。In the two days after the holiday, the downstream demand has not been fully released, and it is greatly affected by the **, and the wait-and-see mentality is mostly held, and the transaction is not good. It is expected that tomorrow's cold-rolled ** will run steadily and weakly;
Today's plate**: slightly**
Today, the national plate is medium-and-heavy plateFall10-30。Plate inventories have accumulated, downstream demand has not yet been fully started, and there is still pressure on inventory in the short term, but the overall contradiction between supply and demand has not intensifiedIt is expected that tomorrow** will be slightly weakly adjusted;
Today's hot-rolled strip**: Mainly
Today, the national hot-rolled stripFall10-20。The snail continuesFallIn the context of the current macro policy vacuum, the weakness of supply and demand still existsIt is expected that the short-term hot-rolled strip will weaken and operate;
Today's large and medium-sized materials**: weak operation
Today, the country's large and medium-sized materialsFall10-30。The cost of raw materials is high and falling, the snail is green, the market mentality is not optimistic, and some of the best merchants are out of the warehouseIt is expected that in the short term, the steel market will be stable and weak;
Today's welded pipe**: The main steady fall
Today, there are ** welded pipes in the countryFall30。Bifocal** disc surface one after anotherFall, and refresh the low level of nearly half a year. The raw material end ** drives the resonance of finished products downward, and the coke in the future market may continue to be raisedDrop, bearish spot ** trend. It is expected that tomorrow's pipe will run down.
Tomorrow's steel market ***trend**
Judging from the LPR data released today, although the overall trend is positive, the expected effect of policy stimulus is not large, and the strength of the recovery of demand after the holiday is still a mystery. Next, it depends on whether the March meeting stimulates the strength enough, whether it can ignite the market, how to go tomorrow, and look down ......
The influencing factors of the steel market are as follows
The annual LPR was cut by 25 basis points
In February, LPR** was released: LPR with a term of more than 5 years was reported at 395% compared to 4 in the previous month2%。Under the 5-year LPRDrop, which means the cost of medium and long-term loans provided by banks to businesses and individualsDroplow, which usually stimulates activity in the housing market, increasing demand for home purchases, further boosting real estate investment and construction activity. (The Paper).
2. **The meteorological observatory issued six warnings in a row! A cold wave brings sand, dust, and a heavy snowstorm hits
It is expected that in the next three days, most of the central and eastern parts of China will be violent from west to east and from north to southDropWen, among them, parts of southern Hunan, eastern Guizhou and other places cumulatedDropThe temperature amplitude can reach more than 20, and there are heavy snowstorms in the northwest and west of Henan. (Guangming Net).
The sales of heavy trucks in the month were nearly 100,000, a year-on-year increase of 99%.
In January 2024, China's truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold a total of 28880,000 units, down from December last yearDrop7%, an increase of 82% year-on-year. Among them, the heavy-duty truck market (including chassis and tractors) sold 9690,000 units, up 86% m/m and 99% y/y. (First Commercial Vehicle Network).
In terms of the spot market
Today's rebar: **Weak
The cold wave began to affect the central and eastern parts of China, and the downstream demand is bound to be affected, while the profits of steel mills are poor, the willingness to replenish the raw fuel is low, and the support on the cost side is weakened, and the rebar is expected to weaken slightly tomorrow.
Today's hot roll: generally downward
Domestic policy support continues, but the downstream demand performance is sluggish, and the spot ** continues to be affected by the diskDownward adjustment。Coupled with the poor profits of steel mills and the increased willingness to suppress coke, it is expected that the hot coil will run steadily and weakly tomorrow.
Today's medium plate: narrow and weak
Plate inventory accumulation, downstream demand has not yet been fully started, inventory is still under pressure in the short term, but the overall supply and demand contradiction has not intensified, and it is expected that tomorrow's plate spot ** slightly weak adjustment.
Strip today: sharply weakened
The steel mill started the third round of coking coal and coke extractionDrop, merchants are not confident in the market outlook. Today's market is affected by snails, the wait-and-see mood is strong, and the billet spot continues within the dayDownward adjustmentIt is expected that the strip will run weakly tomorrow.
Today's profile: steady in a fall
The snail is green downward, the market transaction is light, and the billet ** is going through continuouslyUpward adjustmentAfter that, the momentum began to be insufficient, resulting in a cautious market sentiment, but it is difficult to have a rapid decline in the short termFallIt is expected that tomorrow's profile will be stableFallRun.
Today's pipe: steady in the fall
Affected by the narrow decline in costs, pipe factories mostly adjust with the line, and the range is relatively narrow. At present, the production line of the pipe factory is gradually resuming work, and the market sentiment is weakeningFall
In terms of the raw material market
Billets Today: Steady Operation
Judging from the current **, coke is raisedDropOpen, the cost of steel enterprises further downward, the support role weakened. However, today's LPR is actively introduced, market expectations still exist, and it is expected that the billet will run firmly tomorrow.
Iron ore today: **Weak.
The terminal demand is still in the off-season, the resumption of blast furnace production of steel mills has been postponed, the output of molten iron has increased slowly, the supply and demand have been weak to suppress the mine price, and the black series has continued to decline.
Today's coke: weak operation.
However, affected by the decline in market capacity, the arrival of raw materials was blocked, and the inventory of steel mills declined slightly, and it is expected that coke will weaken tomorrow.
Today's scrap: steady and rising.
Although the third round of coke reduction has made the finished products ** decline, indirectly speaking, the production cost of steel mills will also decrease, so the willingness to suppress scrap steel will not be too strong.
Today's pig iron: mixed.
Most of the downstream foundry enterprises are still in the stage of suspension and holiday, the market trading atmosphere is still deserted, the current third round of coke reduction opens, the cost of raw materials for pig iron support weakened, and it is expected that tomorrow's main stable operation.
Integrated perspectivesOn the one hand, the recent cold wave will affect the central and eastern regions of China, the downstream resumption of production is limited, and the demand release is not obvious for the time being; On the other hand, steel mills continue to lose profits, the willingness to suppress raw materials is more obvious, coke still has 1-2 rounds of room to fall, cost support or will be further weakened, is expected to run tomorrow's steel price ** weak, range of 10-30 yuan.
Decision recommendation: ** Overall pressure, but the downward adjustment is limited. It is recommended that merchants wait and see, maintain an appropriate amount or low inventory operation as a whole, wait for the opportunity for follow-up operations, and focus on steady operation. (For reference only, not investment advice).
The above content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment or application advice. The content ** is comprehensively organized in the steel network + network, if there is any infringement, please contact the customer service of this platform to delete the article, thank you.