In the past Spring Festival holiday, the consumer market showed an extremely hot trend.
According to data from the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, there are 4 domestic tourism trips nationwide during the 8-day Spring Festival holiday this year7.4 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 343%, an increase of 19. on a comparable basis compared to the same period in 20190%；The total cost of domestic tourists is 63268.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 473%, an increase of 7. on a comparable basis compared to the same period in 20197%。In other words, the performance of the consumer market during the Spring Festival holiday was not only significantly better than the same period last year, but also exceeded the pre-epidemic level across the board.
It is worth noting that the consumer market during the Spring Festival holiday can be described as fully blooming and splendid, bringing the long-lost taste of the New Year to the Chinese people, and also making the consumption of the whole year further warm up to achieve a "good start".
This is supported by the following sets of data:
1) According to the 2024 Spring Festival "Eat, Drink and Play" consumption insights released by Meituan, the life service industry has achieved a "good start", with the average daily consumption scale during the Spring Festival holiday increasing by 36% year-on-year and more than 155% compared with 2019.
2) According to the "2024 Spring Festival Travel Report for the Year of the Dragon" released by Ctrip, during the Spring Festival holiday, ticket orders for domestic scenic spots increased by more than 6% year-on-year, and inter-provincial travel orders accounted for 57%, doubling year-on-year.
3) According to the 2024 Spring Festival Holiday Travel Express released by Fliggy, the Spring Festival of the Year of the Dragon has become the most popular Spring Festival tourism holiday in history, and the number of domestic travel bookings has greatly exceeded the same period in 2019, of which medium and long-term travel has increased by more than 3 times compared with last year. Outbound travel has also hit a four-year peak, with bookings nearly 10 times higher than last year, and more than half of the popular overseas destinations have surpassed the same period in 2019.
4) National Immigration Administration**, the average daily number of customs clearance at ports across the country during the Spring Festival holiday in 2024 will reach 1.8 million, an increase of about 3 compared with last year's Spring Festival3 times, which is equivalent to the inbound and outbound traffic of the Spring Festival in 2019; Alipay data shows that the amount of foreign tourists spending in China increased by 500% year-on-year; Alipay users' overseas spending increased by 140% year-on-year.
5) The preliminary estimate of visitor arrivals to Hong Kong during the Spring Festival holiday is about 750,000, reaching the level of the same period in 2018, of which 650,000 are from the Mainland, exceeding the same period in 2018; From the 30th to the 6th day of the Chinese New Year's Eve, about 4.03 million people entered and exited Macao's ports, with a daily average of 5760,000 person-times, an increase of 77 over the same period last year5%, which is 102 in the same period of 2019 (3.94 million passengers).4%；Seven days before the Spring Festival holiday, the amount of duty-free shopping on Hainan Island reached 221.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42%, and the number of duty-free shoppers was 26890,000 person-times, with an average consumption of 8,235 yuan.
6) According to the news of Lighthouse Professional Edition, as of the afternoon of February 17, the total box office of the 2024 Spring Festival stalls (February 10-February 17) exceeded 8 billion, exceeding 78 in the 2021 Spring Festival stalls4.3 billion, breaking the box office record of the Spring Festival stalls in Chinese film history, and this is the ...... achieved when the average ticket price has been significantly reduced
The above series of data has really exceeded many people's expectations, and people have to sigh: This Spring Festival is really hot!
Some people may ask: why can the consumer market during this year's Spring Festival holiday have such a strong performance? In my opinion, the main reasons involve at least the following three aspects:
First, the objective environment of travel is more friendly.
Looking back on last year's Spring Festival holiday, although it was the first small holiday after the epidemic prevention and control plan was greatly optimized and adjusted, many people were still infected at that time, and the market generally ** The Spring Festival holiday may break out due to the large-scale movement of the population and the second wave of infection peak, so people will inevitably have concerns when traveling.
However, as far as this year's Spring Festival is concerned, the disruption of the epidemic factor to the consumer market has almost disappeared, especially after more than a year of economic recovery, the operation of all walks of life and the daily life of Chinese people have returned to normal, and the Spring Festival holiday is the traditional consumption season.
Second, it is driven by event factors represented by "Erbin fever".
During this year's New Year's Day holiday, the "Ice City" Harbin phenomenon burst into popularity, and all walks of life reported overwhelmingly, tourists from all over the world flocked to go sightseeing, compared with Zibo, another city out of the circle last year, it can be said that it is more than equal, and Harbin's cultural and tourism consumer market has also ushered in a small peak of growth. Affected by this, many other cities in China have also followed Harbin's "out of the circle cheats", including vigorously promoting the characteristics of the local cultural and tourism industry, focusing on enriching and improving tourist attractions, creating a better consumption environment, etc., in order to seize the time window of the Spring Festival holiday to attract more foreign tourists to come for sightseeing, and drive the local consumer market to boost.
This series of actions is reflected at the level of the people, that is, the choice of travel destinations during the Spring Festival holiday seems to have increased overnight, and the "competition" and "fancy work" of the cultural tourism industry in various places have also greatly stimulated people's enthusiasm for traveling during the Spring Festival holiday, and more and more people want to go to various places to feel the local industrial characteristics similar to Harbin's ice and snow consumption, which has also driven the prosperity of the consumer market to a large extent.
Third, the intensity of policies to promote consumption has not been reduced.
Since the end of 2022, the management has repeatedly emphasized on different occasions that "the recovery and expansion of consumption should be given priority"; And in December last year, the first economic work conference once again talked about "to stimulate potential consumption, expand effective investment, and form a virtuous circle of consumption and investment to promote each other", and then, on the basis of the 2023 "consumption boost year", the Ministry of Commerce will adjust and establish 2024 as the "consumption promotion year", and proposed to adhere to the "policy + activities" two-wheel drive, highlight key categories, festivals, etc., and continue to organize and carry out a variety of consumption promotion activities. Create more new scenarios for the integration of business, tourism, culture and sports, and create a good consumption atmosphere. In view of the Spring Festival holiday, all localities have spared no effort to give various plans to promote consumption, and at the same time hold various activities, which have received positive feedback in the consumption report card of the Spring Festival holiday.
Having said that, although the performance of the consumer market during the Spring Festival holiday is exciting, and it also confirms the repair of the national economy, the seasonal factors in this cannot be ignored, and whether the follow-up economy can be sustainably repaired still needs further observation and verification. Just like the performance of the consumer market during the Spring Festival holiday last year, it was also remarkable, but the economic data in the following months fell short of expectations one after another, which was a big surprise.
However, given China's solid economic foundation, well-established industrial system, strong policy support and strong economic resilience over time, we should be confident in the economic situation in 2024. The PMI data and various financial data in January generally exceeded expectations, showing that the policy side has improved domestic and foreign demand, and the prosperity of various industries has been improved, which also makes a good start for the economy throughout the year. Subsequently, with the effective stabilization of the situation in all aspects and the continuous recovery of the national economy, consumption, as a pro-cyclical variable of the economy, will continue to benefit from this.
The above logic is reflected in the capital market, which is the opportunity for the large consumption sector to be expected to perform repeatedly in 2024. Especially after a long period of time, the cost-effective advantage of the large consumption sector has been highlighted, and the current overall price-earnings ratio quantile value has come to 3 in the past 5 years15%, 21 in the last 10 years12%, other sub-sectors such as medical beauty, food and beverage, etc. are also at the bottom of the valuation range. Cheap enough **, has already attracted the attention of funds. Judging from the recent performance of most of the representative leaders, not only the stock price has stabilized, but the trading volume has also been frequently enlarged, and the traces of large funds to build positions and absorb chips are obvious, and there may be a large space for the follow-up.
In terms of specific allocation, it is recommended to focus on high-quality core assets in the sector, optional consumer goods that are more flexible and more likely to be supported by policies, and varieties with significantly improved performance to lay out and hold patiently, I believe that we can obtain a more ideal return on investment.
Note: The market is risky, and investment should be cautious. In any case, the information or opinions expressed in this subscription account are only an exchange of views and do not constitute investment advice to any person. Unless otherwise noted, the research data in this article is supported by Straight Flush iFind].
This article was originally written by "Xingtu Financial Research Institute", and the author is Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at Xingtu Financial Research Institute.